Japan was open yesterday and our markets went up.
They are open again today so we'll see how my premise holds up into their 2-day closing tomorrow. China is already closed (not Hong Kong) for the week and Europe gets back to work this morning and looking strong already (7:30).
Today's market goose will be provided by Monday's intra-day spread candidate, MA, where we picked up the June $120s for $2.50 but we'll be regretting the June $110 puts at $2.90 as they had HUGE (+70%) numbers, beating estimates by 36%. After consolidating at $110 since November it will be interesting to see where this one ends up. If the American consumer is truly dead, they must have on-line shopping in the casket!
Not a whole lot going on in the international markets the day after May day so it's up to US to lead the way:
|
|
|
Day's |
Must |
Comfort |
Break |
Next |
|
Index |
Current |
Move |
Hold |
Zone |
Out |
Goal |
| Dow | 13,136 | 73 | 12,468 | 12,600 | 13,000 | 13,500 |
| Transports | 2,842 | 7 | 2,825 | 2,900 | 3,000 | 3,250 |
| S&P | 1,486 | 4 | 1,430 | 1,460 | 1,500 | 1,550 |
| NYSE | 9,639 | 12 | 9,218 | 9,465 | 9,600 | 10,000 |
| Nasdaq | 2,531 | 6 | 2,454 | 2,500 | 2,600 | 2,750 |
| SOX | 494 | 1 | 477 | 490 | 500 | 560 |
| Russell | 816 | 1 | 803 | 820 | 850 | 900 |
| Hang Seng | 20,388 | 69 | 20,200 | 20,600 | 21,000 | 22,000 |
| Nikkei | 17,394 | 119 | 17,400 | 17,500 | 18,300 | 18,500 |
| BSE (India) | 13,872 | closed | 13,200 | 14,000 | 14,725 | 15,000 |
| DAX | 7,441 | 32 | 6,900 | 7,000 | 7,400 | 8,000 |
| CAC 40 | 5,978 | 18 | 5,650 | 5,800 | 6,000 | 7,000 |
| FTSE | 6,448 | 28 | 6,325 | 6,450 | 6,600 | 7,000 |
If we can only turn those black boxes green we will be back in party mode. We really need a good day out of the transports but that will be up to oil and whether we can keep it below the $65 level this week. Inventories are out a 10:30 and ZMan notes the crack spreads are leveling off which should put pressure on refiners (TSO) and the majors. Z still likes VLO but I'm looking for a breakdown as demand is clearly slipping in a pattern that gave us a 5% correction in the oil patch last May.
Having been badly burned by refinery fires, I'm a little shy about jumping right in with the shorts but there's a lot of tempting candidates if we can get past this inventory so stay tuned.
Happy Trading put up a great monthly review yesterday and it's well worth checking out his charts over at Wang's World. Our chart of the day yesterday was the S&P, which must hold 1,485 today but today we are ignoring all that as we will hopefully be lining up another round of Google plays, which gave us a 96% return last month. Does this chart look worth another spin? We'll decide in the intra-days!
