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Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

By phil
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Posted May 2, 2007 at 9:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – not yet but I can’t wait!

MA – out of the June puts for .40 and a $1 trailing stop on 1/2 and a $2 ts (of the max sell on the other half of the June calls so that’s $9 minimum but watch the $125 line for a signal to get out fast.

Posted May 2, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink (Edit)

TM – looks like a flush to me! I’m buying out the June $125 caller at $1.50 and will shift my May $125s over to those as soon as it finds some sort of bottom. If it keeps going down I can selll the May $120s (currently $2.25) against perhaps 1/2 the position. XXX Earnings are next week and projections are that they will earn 7% LESS than last year and 6% LESS than last quarter. The stock, meanwhile is trading at last year’s open so I continue to accumulate the Octobers – now buying the $135s for $2.85 but hoping they get cheaper (I’m already in on the $140s).

Posted May 2, 2007 at 9:58 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – I’m going to load back up AFTER inventories. My basis is $7.20 so I will DD at $3.60 but I’m hoping for a little run-up and a reverse.

I’m calling TM a shake out – I was just running the dollar/yen, which is the only thing I can even imagine hurting their earnings and it’s just not happening. Even if the Yen was strong against the dollar, the benefits of the Euro/Yen differential would make up for it in spades.

Posted May 2, 2007 at 10:06 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG buying June $450 puts for $6.40, selling May $470 puts for $8.20 and rolling to a higher put every time they go to $10 (ie. when the $480 gets down to $10 I roll into it). XXX – but tough on margins. Stope your putter at $9

Buying June $480s for $11.25, will sell May later. XXX Stop if naked at $10.

Posted May 2, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink (Edit)

WFR – that’s why we held the naked calls! Too good to keep down long but don’t get excite until they do better than a 50% retrace above $60 as $56.50 is a 20% meaningless bounce.

QQQQ $46s are doing nicely, nice offset to the DIA puts (just 200 now) so I can afford .37 to roll to the $132 puts at $1.22 XXX

FIZ (see yesterday) is bubbling! Someone besides me will figure this out soon. I’m in on the common because there is zero option traffic, might start selling options as you can get $1.55 for the June $15s so a litttle mo here and we could have something worth selling.

Posted May 2, 2007 at 10:31 am | Permalink (Edit)
Inventories: 1.1Mb build, draw in gas 1Mb, draw in distillates of 200K – pretty much in line so I’m on the TSO puts!
Posted May 2, 2007 at 10:48 am | Permalink (Edit)
ABX – I have the leap because they are grossly undervalued and even if they dove today I would have bought a ton more. Rather than stop out of a leap I sell the shorter calls against it and I think ABX may have trouble getting over $30 for this period but it’s going to be a tough one to sell against because they are worth $33 easy. If you have the shorter calls, roll them up – that takes profit off the table and still gives you an upside but always have a firm stop 20-30% on the rolled position that keeps at least 60% of your profits.

T – if they want to keep selling it to me at this price I will keep buying!

Posted May 2, 2007 at 11:05 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – that DD at $3.30 brought my basis on the $120 puts to $5.25 and I will be half out around there for sure. The other position I hold is the 20 May $105 calls (basis $6.50) against which I sold the 10 May $110 calls (basis -$5.50) which will provide me very small comfort should TSO go to $130 and wipe out my puts. I may end the day with just 50 (1/4) of my puts if I can get my money back – I will be thrilled just to get mostly out of this annoying thing.

MA didn’t like $130 at all!

FDX – I’d go with oil $55 but I bought back my caller so you’re doing better than me. I like FDX long-term and if they move and UPS moves then I will also go back to YRCW with the July $45s at .65 for a start. XXX

Posted May 2, 2007 at 11:34 am | Permalink (Edit)
TSO holding $120 but $119.55 is the 5% rule off the high. The real top was pretty much $125 so $118.75 is the line in the sand. A 20% retracement from the bottom they haven’t hit yet is $120 exactly so that becomes a very powerful number for them. This run came off $110 so $121 is a 10% up and $119 would be a 20% retracement of that run so boy oh boy is this a spot to watch! Let’s keep in mind that the macro run came from $63 on 1/11 and they peaked out at just about a double so a 20% correction ($12.60) would put them back at $112.50 without even breaking the general uptrend
I’m out of here for the afternoon so I am setting 20% stops on all uncovered positiions except the LTP
Posted May 2, 2007 at 11:43 am | Permalink (Edit)

Discount brokers – OXPS is our broker of choice. We have the Jan $30s at $1.05, now $1.28. If you remind me after hours I’d be happy to look at the others.

ABX report was nice for JOYG, they are mining like crazy! It’s keeping gold prices down though.

Oh man, what was that spike in SUN??? I can’t believe I missed shorting that! Might have been a mega-pump spike prior to a big drop!

Posted May 2, 2007 at 11:58 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – sold 25% of my position so far in $125 puts for $6.80, looking to do better on 50%.

If TSO goes up over $125 I make $1.30 profit. If TSO goes down I still get my $2+ premium against my $5.25 positions in the $120 puts plus I may do better on the V of the trade and, of course, my other half is uncovered. I get killed on a flat line where my puts go worthless and I still owe my caller $5 back but it’s still $1 better off than I would be naked.

Posted May 2, 2007 at 12:04 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Watch out! NY Fed came out with warning on excessive leverage causing possible crisis!!! I’m DD on mattress play of DIA $132 puts at $1.17 XXX

Posted May 2, 2007 at 12:19 pm | Permalink (Edit)

JDSU a little chased now, way up from yesterday but back to my watch level from Monday. If they miss then we have big problems. Last Q was a 30% beat yet analyst estimates haven’t changed from .10 so I’m looking for a nice beat here. Deep in the money cals still have a .15 premium so I like the Jun $18s for .55 and I will sell half my position against the May $17s, now .72 but hoping for $1 or better on a run. XXX (good for $10KP with 20 contracts).

Posted May 2, 2007 at 12:39 pm | Permalink (Edit)
TSO – taking my buck profit on the $125s I sold, will resell back near $7 as that seems to be the channel. If I
can work my positions down $1 I may be able to trim down close to even.
Posted May 2, 2007 at 1:04 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – you’e right opt, just profit on the ones I sold so net -$2 (40%) loss on the whole position but better than -$5 (If I get my buck on all 50). If I can’t resell for at least $6.50 I will probably still take a bunch off the table with a 30% loss as the position is still too heavy into earnings (although I bet I end up regretting every contract I sell).

I’m also considering flipping to Aug $110 puts at $4.80 (same price) and selling the June $115 puts for $3.85 and that is my most likely move if this thing breaks $123 and VLO holds $1 up and oil holds $63.50 so a very conditional XXX

ACLS – if you bought it a couple of days ago you should probably take the Mays off the table with a nice profit. They had a nice beat last Q and are expected to do well so anything less than a beat will not likely be met with enthusiasm. On the bright side they are over last year’s highs so that barrier is crossed and if they have a nice beat they are likely to come to people’s attention and get a good run. On the whole I think this company would do much better if their symbol wasn’t Lou Gehrig’s Disease!

Long $10KP play here is to buy the Oct $5s for $3.35 (a .21 premium) and sell the Jul $7.50s for $1.15 (a .58 premium) for a very dull .37 gain (11%) in 70 days but this only works if you have a flat commission deal of course so just really pointing it out as interesting.

LOL – while I was writng that up I got stopped out of those damn TSOs at $3.35 so now I have to roll to the Augs and sell the Junes or this willl be a hopeless loss. XXX if you are stuck with this.

 

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