That wasn't very exciting…
I missed most of the day but everything ended up pretty much where I left it but we expected weakness ahead of the Fed. I'm getting a little worried now as sentiment is changing and pretty good earnings DIS, CVS, MVL, TAP, TM… are being met with less than entusistic responses.
The Dow has had an amazing 1,000 point run with just 3 down days out of 27, a feat not managed since the Summer of 1927 when Babe Ruth set the single season home run record. In one of those cosmic circle things, it looks like this will be the year that Barry Bonds sets the all-time home run record but, like the Dow's dollar deflation, that record may be tainted by steroids.
The Dow, now 24 and 4, is batting .858 – still very respectable and a 3-point loss is nothing to cry over and it's interesting to note that 7 of the 10 greatest rallies in history occurred between May and July so "sell in May and go away" may not be the winning plan they make it out to be. Of course all of those mega-rallies, except this one, came before 1957 so there's been half a century of summer fizzles
It's hard to tell ahead of the Fed but it's possible that, after $2 Trillion in mergers and acquisitions already this year, that the market is just exhausted. We held my 13.250 mark and the even the SOX held 500 so, on the whole, it was a good day:
|
|
|
Day's |
Must |
Comfort |
Break |
Next |
|
Index |
Current |
Move |
Hold |
Zone |
Out |
Goal |
| Dow | 1,309 | -3 | 12,468 | 12,600 | 13,000 | 13,500 |
| Transports | 2,914 | 7 | 2,825 | 2,900 | 3,000 | 3,250 |
| S&P | 1,507 | -2 | 1,430 | 1,460 | 1,500 | 1,550 |
| NYSE | 9,788 | -37 | 9,218 | 9,465 | 9,600 | 10,000 |
| Nasdaq | 2,571 | 1 | 2,454 | 2,500 | 2,600 | 2,750 |
| SOX | 501 | -2 | 477 | 490 | 500 | 560 |
| Russell | 830 | -1 | 803 | 820 | 850 | 900 |
Don't forget these were very aggressive chart levels that I set way back at the beginning of this rally when I decided our old chart (the must hold was our old breakout) wasn't big enough to accommodate the move I was predicting. Now that we are resting on our breakouts, we have to worry about them turning into a new top but if the Dow, S&P, NYSE and SOX can stay green, then they are very likely to convert the slower Nasdaq and Russell who may reassert themselves as leaders if the Fed is kind.
Oil bounced up .79 to $62.26 as our friends in Nigeria continued their shenanigans. The overall barrel count for the 3 front months remains at 570M, just a little high for delivery to a facility that can handle 40M barrels a month tops…
The Dollar made another run at 82 thanks to our friends in Malaysia stepping in to stop the dollar from breaking the 3.5 ringgit mark and that caused gold to back off $3 to $687. What the dollar really does this week will now be wholly dependent on the Fed so tune in tomorrow!
