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Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted May 10, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink (Edit)

TM – I’m waiting for the dust to settle but my plan is to buy the Jan $120s for perhaps $10 and aggressively sell the June $120s for $3.20 to make back my loss on the Oct $140s (-1.27 so far) and using the $140s as a buffer in case it spikes up on me.

Posted May 10, 2007 at 10:01 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – selling $120s for $3, out at $3.50 – it’s risky but I can’t pass that up. XXX Yes, I know it is currently at $2.50 but it spiked to $3 and that’s what I want to sell it for otherwise I won’t bother ($2.75 min on half).

IBN already got hammered on that news but my Dec $45s aren’t moving so I’m going to DD there and start selling the Jun $45s, perhaps for $1 but I’m not in a hurry.

Posted May 10, 2007 at 10:14 am | Permalink (Edit)

I’m opening a new $10KP appropriate position (but I won’t put it there due to length) of buying the Jan $2.50s for $2.88 and selling the Jan $5 for $1.58 which means you’re OK if it holds $3.80 and you’re in for $1.30 with a $1.20 max gain. You can also do that with the Jan ‘09 $2.50 at $3.35 against the Jan ‘09 $5 at $2.60 which is a risk of just .75 agianst the same $2.50 spread and a break even at just $3.25 – it’s pretty good money for a year or 2 and you may be able to get out early with small losses or gains along the way. On a big spike, you would cash in as both premiums would be wiped out so you could take an early exit. XXX

Posted May 10, 2007 at 10:26 am | Permalink (Edit)

DIA puts have barely budged on this drop indicating no one is buying it. Selling DIA $133 puts for .85 to cover some of my earlier losses. XXX

Posted May 10, 2007 at 11:35 am | Permalink (Edit)

OMNI – they look great but too small for me to be comfortable with. Owning the stock at $10.25 and selling the Nov $10s for $1.90 puts you in for $8.35 with a possible 20% gain in 6 months – nothing to sneeze at.

Posted May 10, 2007 at 12:05 pm | Permalink (Edit)

LTP

AMZN – selling $60s at $2.45
CAT – selling $65s for .50
GDX – selling $40s for .68
SCI – woo hoo!
SHLD – selling 1/2 $175s at $2.65
SNDK – selling June $42.50s for $2.65
UNH – selling $50s for $3.35
XOM – selling $80 puts for $1

SBUX – offering .50 for June $30s

Posted May 10, 2007 at 12:21 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – damn they get me both ways! I didn’t fill that sell earlier and now they’re down to $1.45! Big deal if they fail $117.

SOX down $8 – crazy sell-off. Buying QQQQ $46s for .65 as a mo play (was .99 in morning so looking for .80+).

Buying DIA July $134s for $2.30 and selling DIA May $132s for $1.30 – just a math play as their premium is more than I would lose on another 100 point drop. XXX

Posted May 10, 2007 at 1:17 pm | Permalink (Edit)

STP

AMZN – $60 caller stopped out $2.20
BIDU – selling $125s for $3.85
BRCM – buying June $35s for .52
CHK – half out at .50
CSCO – selling $27.50 puts for $1.10, stop at $1.20 just looking to get my .20 back on other puts.
DNA – selling $80s for .88
GE – buying June $37.50s for .47
GOOG – buying June $450 puts for $6 and selling May $470 puts for $8.25 XXX
HPQ – out at $2.65
IBM – selling $105s for $1.05
INTC – June $22.50s for .65 as a mo play XXX (I already have these at .05 basis)
MRVL – rolling aug $20s to $17.50s for .85
RIMM – rolling to June $140 put for $2 (+$1.25)
YHOO – Buying back $32.50s for .10, rolling to Oct $30s for $1

Posted May 10, 2007 at 2:20 pm | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – what a catastrophe! Very dangerous to sell the June $460s against May $440s – is that your trade?
May $440s are just dead and you have to be quite the mo player to take a chance but at least don’t be greedy and sell the May $470 puts for $9.25 as at least you have $2 of premium as a buffer. Still the risk is $20 if something horrible happens so too rich for my blood. May $460 puts, on the other hand, at $4.30 have a $7 premium with a week to go and that I will sell against my open puts. XXX

NYX – I’m not looking at anything on a 132-point dip! S&P down 17 points is just icky…

FDX – if they are both Junes, you ratio is not likely to improve that much and you do risk a run-up. FDX will turn but not enough to make me want to June $110s but I’m going to take the July $115s for $1.75 with an eye towards selling the June $110s on a run-up.

Gold – We have GG and GFI and AUY, all of whom are doing poorly but I think I like GG best on a turn. Earnings are tomorow and I’m DD on the July $25s at $1.15 XXX Gold is $650 for Q1 vs. $550 last year and ABX already showed that costs weren’t that bad. Q2 last year was a spike to $730 but we’ve been steady at $680 so I thing guidance will be an up surprise.

Posted May 10, 2007 at 2:46 pm | Permalink (Edit)

PG – be careful, I see 2 Jan $60s and the more expensive one almost certainly carries some obligation you may not want. Also, you are unlikely to maintain a $8+ premium for 8 months so you have to imagine that your inaction will cost you at least .50 per month. If they calls you sell don’t do better than that in premium, maybe you are better off killing the trade.

They took a fast bounce off $61 today and they just got rejected off the 200 dma at $62.20 yesterday and this is about the right spot for them.

I would take the profits off the table, roll to the Jan $65s at $1.55 so you will not miss any upside and then it’s worth selling the July $65s for .43 but I would wait as we are just at a 5% rule pullback off the $65 high ($61.75) and unless it drops another buck I would call this a very mild pullback after a 30% run from $51.66 last May (and note the incredible summer thay have and how they had a huge sell-off last spring too).

So I’m going to XXX the Oct $65s for $1.30 as a slow accumulate.

Posted May 10, 2007 at 3:07 pm | Permalink (Edit)
AMGN – something bad! $60 puts for $1.40 as mo play XXX
Posted May 10, 2007 at 3:12 pm | Permalink (Edit)

I have no facts but it looks like something leaked re. FDA meeting on COTE.OB which is supposed to be a $1Bn drug – no reason to hold this if it turns at all but it could go way down if this is true. I already sold 10 of 30 at $2 and will sell the rest at $1.40 as this is too dangerous to guess – probably silly not to take $1.80 for the whole thing now…

Posted May 10, 2007 at 3:17 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Pre rolling to AMGN June $57.70 puts for $1.15 – if this works it’s gonna be a fur coat for mothers day!

Posted May 10, 2007 at 3:26 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Drug names are Aranesp and Epogen and Procrit (JNJ) and JNJ lost .50 on this news but AMGN is bouncing back already so I’m out of the current puts at $1.50 but I’ll hold the Junes, which are now down to .98. Had I been really smart I would have whipped around and sold the May puts against my June puts but I’m just glad to have made a quick .20 a share in 10 mins.

Posted May 10, 2007 at 3:48 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Greg – I agree. I am shocked at how few stops have triggered in this sell-off (although I’ve been stopping out since last week so most of the remaining positions are pretty strong). It will be healthy if we flatline or recover slightly into the weekend, going down more will set a very bad tone for next week considering last May 11 was the start of a major drop.

 

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