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Tuesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted May 22, 2007 at 9:52 am | Permalink (Edit)

Holy cow on ICE! How much are we loving that roll play to the $150s yesterday?

PCP is a great co put their run-up scares me and I’d rather buy them on a dip. BEAV, AIR, TIE and ATI are the way I like to play BA and BEAV should hold $36 and make an entry but I’d really like to see BA break up first.

WYNN $105s out at $1.30 XXX Same goes for LVS $80 puts we sold at $2.60 (holding the WYNN call spread though). I’m thinking of shorting MGM if the buying trails off with perhaps the July $75 puts at $2. XXX

Posted May 22, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink (Edit)

QCOM – not getting the action you’d expect. CSCO too.

DNDN, on the other hand, back at $7.15. My average hold on that stock is $8.32 so it’s hard not to sell those $7.50 calls at .55 and be done with it… At $1 I will certainly put a cap on half.

GOOG – still have the Julys, need to think about selling $470s again… Yesterday was $14.95, maybe $1 off the peak when we sold them but not if the indices are heading up. SOX coming back maybe???

NYX – my answer in prev post was I would not chase it but I said that about ICE yesterday so take it for what it’s worth… Speaking of ICE – had to take half off at $9 on $150s, I mean – come on! XXX

Posted May 22, 2007 at 10:19 am | Permalink (Edit)

RIMM spending $1.10 to roll to $150 put at $2.60 XXX

Posted May 22, 2007 at 10:47 am | Permalink (Edit)

TM – still have Jan $120s, bought back caller yesterday – looks like I could have waited…

AXP – Where’s my Cramer pump? Just a light entry here – see yesterday’s comments on scaling in.

Posted May 22, 2007 at 11:03 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – I called $124 a top yesterday so I sure hope so! Had a $1.50 bid in for more $115 puts that didn’t get filled so I’m just going to wait and see.

LVS – same concept of scaling, I was WAY out of the money on those and that was, I thought, a sell into the initial excitement. But this lets me get out of my long puts as I no longer want the position (up 429%) so I’m stopping them out at $10 ($1 tstop).

FDX – thanks for pointing that out. Need to buy back the $110s at .50 and sell $105s if they go down to $2. XXX (against the july $115s). If I didn’t have margin for that I would kill the trade with a $400 profit, not bad for a $90 investment!

Posted May 22, 2007 at 11:10 am | Permalink (Edit)

Funny oil going down with BP shutting their pipeline yet again but be careful getting excited about oil as they roll to a more expensive contract tomorrow.

Posted May 22, 2007 at 11:54 am | Permalink (Edit)

LVS – LOL! You’re right, no wonder no one will buy from me! Actually it’s only on my watch list, I haven’t put in the order yet or I would have seen it then. Same concept but, since I’m only up $6 I’m going to set the stop at $7 but a .75 tstop to the upside.

Dow – I agree, this is weak, setting tight stops (mainly 15% of profits), good time to lighten up. XXX

OIH going my way finally!

Posted May 22, 2007 at 12:44 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DWA – why even bother making a hit movie if this is how they treat you?

HLYS – dead money in $10KP but we sold more expensive May $40s against them so not worth risking much on but the June $35s are .25 and those can be sold without too much risk or you can sell the July $35s for .90 and what you would want to do there is roll to the Aug $35s (currently +.90) if it starts going up on you. Personally, I’m leaving mine alone as I don’t feel like adding it to my watch list.

X – GS sector downgrade means we should give it a day or so but yes, I like them.

Posted May 22, 2007 at 1:11 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DIA puts – just letting them go for now, my damn stops never trigger so I need protection but it’s hard to say from what – even the SOX are positive now.

Check out BUD – big sell-off yesterday, massive move (for them) today. The whole market is like that, you just can’t make any money on the short side. Speaking of which – RIMM near $160!

Posted May 22, 2007 at 1:25 pm | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG with a more orderly rise today, does not make me want to sell calls at the moment.

Rates are pushing up, I’m concerned about a breakout here if they don’t pull back soon. Trying to envision the macro money movement picture here but it seems like money is going out of treasuries and into stocks – could be good for mega rally but also it spells the last tappable pool of capital so look out below if this thing falls apart.

Posted May 22, 2007 at 1:29 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Yen calls – very interesting! I don’t know about short-term but a leap might be very attractive.

AAPL – looks consolidating more than topping but it won’t fight the market.

VLO puts – I’m in for the week, my premise is that this weekend’s driving will disappoint but I wouldn’t bet big money on it.

Posted May 22, 2007 at 1:50 pm | Permalink (Edit)

First time I’ve seen SPWR go up without CY following..

CAL and AMR are big INTL flyers, LUV not getting love so it may be just a play off rich Europeans coming over.

MTN flying too – something has changed in real estate.

LCAV coming back

Welcome Madyo – had you recommended BUD we’d all think you’re a genius now so don’t be shy!

I’m still watching GOOG to tell me which way things are heading. We broke the S&P yesterday but couldn’t hold it (but yesterday oil spiked and ruined it). Google was a great leading indicator so let’s see if they can break $480.

WTR flowing!

Posted May 22, 2007 at 1:54 pm | Permalink (Edit)

WFMI going up – sign of a program buying pretty much anything.

SNDK – I couldn’t take the pain and sold the June $42.50s for $2.65, now $1.55 but I’m not willing to give up the protection. My calls are the Jan $45s and I’m way ahead so more of a protection issue for me.

Posted May 22, 2007 at 2:02 pm | Permalink (Edit)

I can only guess the dollar broke through 82.50 which would explain the action on International Banks (cheaper to borrow from) and gold and oil falling through but I can’t get a number on it.

CAKE, PNRA, WEN, MCD all moving up. BKC is not…

CROX explaining why not to short it.

RYN zooming too – another intl’ airline (also could play off strong dollar)

CNBC telling you to BUYBUYBUY oil stocks and mentioning hurricanes for the 10th time – “Remember, it only takes one major hurricane to spike prices.”

Posted May 22, 2007 at 2:05 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Darn, now CY flies – I should have triggered that one. $22.50s for .48, half out at .70 with a .20 tstop (but you can watch SPWR to see where to get off). XXX

Posted May 22, 2007 at 2:08 pm | Permalink (Edit)

OSTK flying – another sign that no human can be making these decisions!

OH!!! Jeff Lacker said economy looks good – Well that’s it for the puts folks!

Posted May 22, 2007 at 2:23 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Oil pump not going well so far – down at $64.99

OVEN with another excellent day.

STX another good day.

TM $125s for .85 XXX

Posted May 22, 2007 at 2:34 pm | Permalink (Edit)

NTE at $12.17 XXX for the stock virtual portfolio.

Posted May 22, 2007 at 3:34 pm | Permalink (Edit)

QQQQ – mostly just using as plunge protection, not trying to “win” that positiion

Posted May 22, 2007 at 3:48 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – when in doubt sell half is a rule to live by! Inventories are tomorrow so we could get a run-up into them and a huge rebound if there’s a drawdown. I’m in at $2.52 myself on the $115 puts but my August $110 puts are way ahead so I’m selling 1/2 my total position in $120 puts at $4.20 as overnight protection.

 

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