TASR – There’s Rule #1 “Always sell into the initial excitement” as well as Rule #2 “When in doubt, sell half” as well as Rule # 3, which is “If you ignore rule number rule number one and number two then why are you even bothering to read rule number 3?” They got 4 orders today, one for $1.4M and 3 more from US police so just let’s see if it holds $10. If it holds $10 and the market stays strong, we might be able to wait a bit but TASR is unlikely to buck the broad markets no matter how good the news is.
TSO – DD’d on sold $120 puts, other oils normal stop outs. Will rebuy into weekend.
Going for the TIE Jul $40s we were looking at yesterday for $1.55 XXX
FXI dosn’t see a recovery, doesn’t that seem odd?
BA is boosting the Dow. Bush on at 11 re. Iraq spending victory and immigation reform, probably not market moving but might help defense.
New home sales up 16%, up 27% in the south. Out of DIA and Q puts agains! XXX
This is insane, it’s like this was tailored to negate Greenspan’s statement.
Same as yesterday, setting stops as any stock that can’t take this as good news doesn’t belong in the virtual portfolio!
13,600 – can we break it?
IBM $105s for $2.20 with a .30 Tstop as a mo play XXX
Oil topping already?
AIR zooming up. TIE moving nicely. BEAV on the move but I don’t like their spot between contracts. ATI is our slow mover so the $115s are worth an entry at $2.50 with a .50 Tstop. XXX
All mo trades terminate and all stops tighten if the Dow cant hold 13,600.
RIMM – cannot resist moving $150 puts to $155 puts for $1.20 and then DD at $2.88. XXX
Daily double likely to come on the put side today, oil slipping, transports slipping CHINA B SHARES ARE DOWN 25% IN 3 DAYS, GE flat, Google rejected at $480, BA-AXP-HD-XOM accounting for most of the Dow rally…
FXI going lower!
ICE rocking back up, missed my entry by a hair but there’s no way I chase that one.
104 build, right at Z’s high-water mark. Of course CNBC immediately starts crying Hurricane Season to drown out the glut. If there are no hurricanes natural gas will be back at $4 in December.
SOX positive but MRVL still poison. I’ll be pursuing yesterday’s set-up by entering lightly on my Jan ‘09 calls with the Octobers if I think we’re going to hold $15.25 (5% rule). We’ll see if the SOX can retake 490 but that’s about the only thing other than $64 oil that will give me confidence on the long side.
OVEN – that’s why we set stops! $1.05 is a nice return, but only if you take it off the table… Offering .55 to get back in. XXX
EBAY has been a very reliable short whenever it goes up. $32.50 puts are .48 XXX if you are, like me, balancing puts and calls – that’s why may plays are heading both ways today!
NMX – not good if it dives like that. CME might be next. ICE looks shakey.
NYX – rolling $90 caller to $85 caller at $3.25 XXX
MSFT – I’m on hold with my Oct $32.50s, basis .85
BA – I didn’t have a stop on my $95 caller so I’m stuck with him but I sure wouldn’t pay $4.25 for those right now.
DIA puts back at $1.60 – only my broker is happy with my in and out move!
XOM July $80 puts at $1.20 and TSO $110 puts at $1.70 for the DD, roll crowd. XXX
NYX – let’s make sure Bush doesn’t declare war on someone first! Well, maybe not looking at the chart – how about the $80 putss for $1.05 as a .20 mo play for a possible Daily Double? XXX
OOPs OOPS!!! Last 2 were NMX, NOT NYX XXX
Miners crashing, dollar rising, oil below $65. SU never had a doubt today.
I’m sorry, I massively mixed up two trades because I had them both up and we kept going back and forth on them.
Trade one, roll NYX we just discussed.
Trade 2 was indeed the NMX $80 puts for $1.05, now $1.10.
Trade 3 was supposed to be the NMX $115 puts for $1 and I never did post that properly but it’s still at $1.10.
Sorry about that, too many things up this morning….
BWLD – very dangerous to short.
TIE, not yet as I only just got it so my entry is low and it wasn’t a mo play. Will take another round at $1 to bring it down to $1.28 but probably won’t chase past there, especially if the markets are weak. ATI, on the other hand, was a mo play and died a quick death.
QQQQ – man those $48 puts are volatile! Cost me a boatload of commisions to go in and out but I’m taking half off the table at $1.80 on the Qs but holding the DIA’s through the weekend no matter what – not going to give up another nickel on the churn – if anything I will sell higher puts against as I did TSO last night for overnight insurance.
Again, all these index puts are meant to be insurance plays but if you don’t take a 50% payoff on an insurance play then what the heck are you holding out for? If you bought a $1M life insurance policy and you “almost” died in a car crash and they offered you $1.5M, even though you’re still alive, would you turn it down? When in doubt, sell half!
Beautiful XOM giving us all time to buy puts…
QQQQ oh, in taking half off at $1.80 I am picking up and equal number of $47 puts for $1.05 and setting a $1.90 stop on the $48s and a .25 tstop on the $47s – wash, rinse, repeat every dollar. XXX
Putters – what I call a putter is a guy I sold puts to. Hopefully that’s not what you have there. I’m not a fan of having any trade that makes me nervous and I’ve been calling for a massive correction in energy to happen this weekend for the entire month so play accordingly I think. Still, despite what I think, I have very tight stops on my puts, especially as oil is holding $65 . Right now BA is holding up the Dow or we’d be down closer to 40 points right now.
2,550 is very key on the Nasdaq, as is 1,515 on the S&P and , sadly now 13,500 on the Dow – boy I predicted a test but this is like a final exam for this rally!
MRVL with a nice bounce off my target despite -4.70 SOX
SU – out of June $85 puts at $1.65, sticking with September $75 puts for now. XXX
PTR – like SU, I’m killing the ones that are up more than 50% as it’s not worth the risk, especially June/July calls. Out of June $125 puts at $2.10 XXX
Still will reenter oil puts if they go back to week’s lows but my strategy is to take off the ones that gain over 50%, leave the ones that aren’t moving yet in hopes they move later…
Oils still live, 10 am was a bottom, nothing triggered thank goodness…
COP – $70 puts .33, now .18 and $75 puts .70, now $1.17 (stop $1)
CHK – $35 puts .54, now .72
OIH – Jul $160 puts $2.70, now $3.85 (.35tstop)
SU – Sept $75 puts $1.30, now $1.25
SUN – $70 put .30, now .35
TSO – $115.00 put $1.25, now $3.50 ($3 stop)
TSO – Aug $110.00 put $2.10, $5.60 ($5 stop)
TSO – $110 puts at $1.70, 1.82
XOM – July $80 puts at $1.20, $1.25
Speaking of tests, that’s a triple failure guys – not looking good at all!
TIE entry was $1.55, not so sure about my plan to DD at $1 the way this looks.
TM Jun $125s stopped violently out at .90, that is both surprising and bad.
Hangin onto Oct $140s for now but watching $120. No question I hold the Jan $120s.
FXI in total meltdown, China could go back to full syndrome mode on a Friday into the weekend. Out of Jan $110 puts and selling June $110 puts against remaining Jan $120 puts. XXX
May 24, 2007 at 12:53 pm Permalink (Edit)
EBAY still up (NOW they go up), SHLD holding on, GOOG hangin in, BA not budging, AXP determined to let you enter cheap – possible signs that this is a big shakeout but there’s not a chance in hell I want to risk this into the weekend.
AGN taking off after a Matrix downgrade, that’s very interesting (as in suspicious)
TASR holding up nicely.
I am thinking bottomish here. I’m way behind on DIAs but $1.80 on the QQQQ $48 puts is plenty! XXX
DIA – holding my $136 puts but my basis is a horrible $3 from all the rolling and such (need another 200 points to be even). That’s why I took the money on an equal amount of Q’s though, they were up .90 which makes up almost all of the losses on my DIAs. If the market drops more, I still benefit from my Dow puts but if it goes up and squashes a huge double in the Nasdaq, I’d be crying!
This is a very big energy sell-off and if you take out the energy stocks then the S&P didn’t do too bad. It takes the market a few days to change leaders but the industrials (the ones that actually use oil) may be a good bet on a recovery. Energy losses are bad for brokers who trade them and a market crash is bad for on-line brokers so that’s to be avoilded but we’ll see if the Asian markets can avoid a meltdown before we throw in the towel over here.
Oil puts – whichever ones have been lagging. BTU is way high so the July $50 puts for $1.48 are XXX, VLO and XOM both have miles to fall and we have plays on each.
OIH – due to the risk of not continuing a 2.5% drop you might want to go with the July $160 puts for $4.45 and sell the June $165 puts for $3.85. XXX
OIH – we picked our up a huge profit on ours and I’d rather take the money and run than fool around but it’s a very valid play since we already own the Julys for much less. When someone asks me about a trade I generally look in a vacuum for the best trade, not worry about what I have or don’t have already.
CCJ – I blew that one, didn’t think they’d sell off that hard but my basis is just $1.80 after buying back the May $50s with a $1.80 profit so I’m not ready to give up on it yet. I was too greedy on yesterday’s spike and got caught up in the fever… At this point if you are going to sell the $50s for $1.50 then you should invest that money in moving the $60s to the $55s for $1.50 which improves your position and lowers the margin on the spread but I’m thinking I’d just as soon see how it does at $49 first.
If oil weren’t at $64, I would feel there is no hope but this is just great, we just need to get through the weekend without China going limit down tomorrow or Monday.
TASR – I’m content to be naked on this one, I considered them grossly undervalued and holding up in this market confirms that. Might sell 1/2 the junes as a cover into the weekend but just for insurance.
DIA – I try to eyeball how much I’d lose on a 100-point drop at the open and try to mitigate 40% of it. My theory is that I will sell my calls in a really bad turn and let the puts ride plus I would ladder into the lower protects (see QQQQ example above). That calculation applies to uncovered calls minus uncovered puts of course.
50 points is not a bad down day on big volume. On the other hand, if programs are kicking in, we could drop 100 points in 30 minutes but I’m not seeing that yet. When I see program selling I point out stupid things like WFMI going up (which is obviously a trade no human would make).
TASR hitting 52 week highs.
TIE – someone has to build all those damn planes. I’m fairly confident they will hold $34 but now I will buy the Jul $35s $2.40 and sell the Jun $35s for $1.33 with my July $40s acting as a stop to the upside. Even if they flatline to the end of the month and earnings are in July – they beat last Q2 estimates by 24% and Q4 was a 110% beat so I’ll be happy to hold on. I’m not selling against unless the June $35s drop to $1.20. XXX
ICE collapse! Wish I had flipped on them yesterday. Running into the 5% rule at $141 so pay no mind to a pause there. $130 puts for $1.50 (now $1.40) are a mo play IF the Dow breaks below 13,450 AND VLO stays below $49 but the $150 calls will be attractive at the same price. XXX for crazy people.
EBAY – done with puts if they break $33 for more than a minute. XXX
TIE/ATI – one of the reasons I’m getting a flushy feel today…
Why would Cramer choose today to attack the only stock that was keeping us from a 100-point down day and why was there a rash of selling right when he come on???? First tick down on BA was 2:35 and they knocked it down $1 in 10 mins, can anyone timestamp his comments?
While there may not be massive selling, there is virtually no buying – that will likely be the case into the weekend.
TWX – yep. CMCSA, DIS, NWS and CBS all holding decently and this is a July movie play and web conference play so lots of reasons to like it.
Oops – now I’m seeing the big boys selling off. Someone is determined to close us 100 points down. C, A, INTC, YUM, AET, FRE, WM, GS… all hitting LODs
Here comes -100!
GOOG not looking very shortable right now. Pay no attention to this drop, it’s forced.
Ah, there it was, -100 to the penny…
Very quick bounce off exactly 100-points down (plus HegdeDogs bash of BA) makes me think this drop is very engineered to deprive you of your stocks. Just a feeling and I’m sure not betting the farm on it but I have cash that is ready to go if China doesn’t drop 500 points tomorrow (FXI says 300+).
