WFR is flying, SOX off to a good start.
LOL – some nervous nelly put my DNDN’s to me so now I’m short 700 shares in my $10KP. Suits me fine for now, I’m up .40 already but I have to clean these out by the day’s end or I will have no buying power.
GLW – If it doesn’t break $25.55 then I’ll be worried but I’m more tempted to buy the $25s than sell them.
MRO/SU – I’ll be holding these into the weekend and very sad if I don’t get a pullback, will probably roll them but I’ll decide on Monday.
GCI (Gannett) on fire! Taking $60s at .55 as mo play XXX
Posted June 1, 2007 at 9:58 am Permalink (Edit)
DJ – As I said in earlier comments, I like the puts but I’m not going to risk it as the deal makes too much sense for the family and Murdoch wants it too much to count him out.
Out of extra 10 DNDN $10 calls at .60 in $10KP, I think they’re going down. I wouldn’t be doing this if I still had the puts but since I’ve had the shorts put to me the math is different. XXX
Watch GCI around $60, may be a good spot to 1/2 out. XXX
Rates are kicking up on strong job numbers, be careful up here! Setting stops to take stuff off the table.
GCI – dead!
CAT – yeah, use up the premium first. I have rolled to the $75s myself and will be selling the July $80s, now $2.51 but I can afford to wait as it’s all profits now.
MO – you want the stock to pop as your putter loses value faster than you, I wouldn’t take a .10 profit as fees kill it but once you can get .30 it’s a good time to take 1/2 but I’ll probably wait until next week in case it pops.
DIS – I think it’s pinned, might sell $35s next week, not today – Pirates may have a huge week.
FNF July $30s .25 worth a gamble as FAF and LFG are going so well. XXX
TSO – buying back my $62.50 putter at $2.75. Trying to sell my TSO-TBs because somehow they got classfied at $77.50 puts, which is totally wrong but I’m seeing if I can find a buyer. Buying July $60 puts as a pre roll for $2.15. XXX if you hate them as much as I do but very dangerous! I think the morning spike, which accounted for all the gains today, was pure pumping BS!
TSO – waiting, of course for it to stop going up!!! XXX
DIS – I think it’s being pinned and a DD is a pretty good gamble into the weekend. You can wait for the afternoon to see if it twitches up as some savvy investors get the early box office figures but I don’t put too much stock in the numbers until tonight, when the kids are out of school. It looks like you’ve got Pirates, Shrek or Spider Man with the last 2 getting kind of old. There’s nothing else for small kids and most of the theaters I’m looking at seem to be betting on Pirates with more showtimes and more screens although Shrek is kind of close.
T – wow, what a bargain! It’s a side bet on the IPhone so let’s look for a bottom here – maybe a flush as we are getting very close to IPhone mainia (unless something is wrong! – cue scary music…)
GCI – I would have stuck it out but there was no reason for the jump other than DJ fever, now it looks like they may make a run for $60 but I’m mad at them and won’t play anymore! Spread of the July $60 for $1.65 and the June at .60+ makes sense as the the Jyly’s were no lower than $1 in the past 2 weeks and they stock would have to be at $60.60 for you to have to pay your caller back but I’m done with these guys.
COST getting hit hard, possibly on rising gas prices (they sell it as a loss leader).
OIH grouper pulling back – HAL, SLB, GSF… I’m DD on the SU Sept $75 puts, still .95 XXX
DELL pulling back, SNDK went red, SOX coming back to 490, which we really don’t want to lose!
AMD is long-term dead but I’ll buy them around $13 as that’s about the spot where INTC will cut them a break so they can stay alive as make-believe competion.
DNDN, one thing you can bet on is they sure won’t stay at $8
Buying Jan $5s for $3.30
Buying Jan $10 puts for $3.80
Net $6.10 and I am going to get at least $5 back so $1.10 at risk. I’m going to wait a bit to sell but FOR EXAMPLE:
Selling July $10s for .53
Selling July $7.50 puts for .93
If I have to pay off my $7.50 putter I’m $2.50 ahead of him with my $10 puts and I’ve collected $1.46 ($3.96) so my break even is a remaining value of $2.14 on the Jan ’08s (but of course I would roll).
If I have to pay of my $10 caller I’m $5 ahead of him on my $5s and I’ve collected $1.46 so I’m already a winner no matter what the puts are worth.
Once I get away with the first month, everything else is gravy. XXX
VLO $75 puts were very very good to me yesterday so I’m going for it again at $1.10 XXX (but dangerous)
DNDN – Oops! Thanks OPtrader. Oh well, I still like it but risk is $2.10 then.. That’s why I don’t usually do those on the fly, too many numbers without my spreadsheet!
JWN – I sold July $55s which I got caught with on today’s jump but still far out of the money against Oct $60s and Oct $55s which are back to even (down .20 total). I took the spread to save my Oct $60s, which were way down but I suppose I would like the $55 spread as a new entry.
DNDN – you could do it in a small virtual portfolio but I have enough DNDN in there at the moment.
GSK – absolutely. At the time we were shorting it I said we could make a nice play when it bottomed around $50. Too bad I forgot but this should be a pretty good spot for the Jan ‘09 $50s at $6.70 and sell the July $50s for $2.72. You could also make that play with 10 Nov $52.50s at $2.75 against 10 July $50s for $2.65 (or any .10 or less spread) in the $10KP (or any folder) but I can’t in my $10KP because I had those damn DNDNs put to me but we’ll track it there anyway. XXX
T – must break over 40.53 to make it a 20% bounce off the drop but I expect that over $40.65 would be a sign of recovery. I have the Jan ‘09 $40s at $3.95, now $5.10 that I’m happy enough with that I haven’t been motivated to sell against them. There’s a nice $1 spread between the Oct and July $40s and a .20 spread between the Oct/July $42.50s and I like both XXX
SLB and HAL turning lower, picking up GSF $67.50 puts as a mo play at $1.15 XXX
AVP doing very well. If I had more June $40s I’d maybe ask .50 here but I only have 20 so I’m going to take my chances next week.
XLE Jun $68 puts too cheap not to buy at .80 XXX but dangerous oil play.
DIA – I’ve got mostly July $136 puts, now $1.90 and $137 puts at $2.30 as insurance against my naked calls. This is not a position I play to win, just something I keep putting some of my profits into every day to keep my virtual portfolio in balance. When they go too far out of the money (.50) I roll to the next level up or move a month further back (as I just did) when we get close to 2 weeks from expiration, otherwise the premium gets eaten up to fast.
10 year note 4.954% Dollar still flat after being rejected at 82.50
DNDN – tempting to hold my shorts but I don’t want to be one of those idiots who get squeezed on the next rumor so I will be selling into this dip.
DIS/TWX – they are both event plays but I like buying more DIS and probably selling the $35s, currently .62, against 1/2 next week. DD on both is a big bet on one sector.
