Weekly Wrap-Up

I won’t waste time talking about the month as we did that in the previous post so we’ll just run down the numbers and talk about the new format.

We closed out 29 positions with a 92% average gain on 13 average days open for the short week, not counting Friday, which will go into next week to keep the month neat and also because I started a new reporting format that I hope everyone will like.  From June 1st on, we will be tracking our virtual portfolios off a fixed dollar base and I will leave all cash on the spreadsheet.  This will substantially cut down the returns on capital (as a lot of cash will be laying around) but it will also let us benchmark overall virtual portfolio progress.

I tried something like this once before and it was such an annoyance to update that I gave it up, but we’ve just set up a new system and I will give it a try for a month and see how everyone likes it.

The gain on capital was dragged down to 60% due to the inclusion of the DNDN stock sale but, as part of it was from the old $10KP, I thought it best to include it here rather than leave it in our stock virtual portfolio.

Our remaining 75 Short-Term Virtual Portfolio positions are up 22% as a group but that’s a lot off the table this week.  As usual, the DIA puts are killing us but they are also protecting the LTP and, without them, there were a couple of times this week I would have stopped out of other positions far too early.  I would urge newer member to read my article on mattress plays to understand the logic of this kind of insurance.

The Long-Term Virtual Portfolio is down to 32 positions with a 98% virtual portfolio gain but is half in cash, which indicates to me that I am getting very nervous about the markets.  As funny as it may seem, I get more clarity about my real feelings about the markets by analyzing my own positions than anything else because, when push comes to shove, the money talks! 

Our $10K Virtual Portfolio is about even on the position side and that’s good because it means we made up for the commissions and the Bid/Ask spread and didn’t get killed in any big way yet and it’s only week 2.  We are NOT well covered there for a big drop but we are naked on the FWLT puts but, on the whole, we’ve got a problem there is the market tanks.  Last time we began the $10KP my 2 hedges cost us all of our only profits so I’m being a little more aggressive this time.

The 3 positions we closed made $1,090 and I have been including $10 per transaction in fees to try to keep tabs on that as well as they really eat into the profits on small accounts! 

Our new Spreads Virtual Portfolio is the main reason we have a smaller STP but that’s the reason I made it as I’ve taken a new interest (due to market concerns) in well-covered, slow paying positions.  This is a work in progress which we just started last week but it’s up 7.6% so far and the real test comes as we move into expiration in two weeks.  There are 6 calls, 1 put, 6 calendar spreads and 2 Iron Condors (SHLD and TSO) and it’s a good way for members to learn about some of these odder strategies.  All the naked calls and puts are in some way paired with the spreads, mostly leaps that substitute for ownership in the underlying position in a more traditional strangle. 

Thanks to the recovery of DNDN, the explosion of FIZ (which is moving to the Nasdaq, where it will gain a "Z" and should really start to get it in gear!) and the movement of MU, our boring old Stocks Virtual Portfolio is up 34%, even though that one is half in cash too. 

A closing note on FIZ:

Aside from moving to the Nasdaq FIZ(Z) paid a really strange 20% dividend by issuing more stock which had the net effect of changing our Oct $15 calls to Oct. $12.50 calls.  We started buying the stock and calls at around $14-$14.50 and the stock shot up (of course) into the dividend date but is now back at $14 but we have gone from .75 out of the money to $1.50 in the money – that’s a good deal!

JSDA had a nice sell-off and they may pop too but FIZ is their distributor and has been dragged down by the sell-off for no particular reason.  Aside from the Jones deal, what got me excited about FIZ is their vitamin soda business, especially after coke gave Glaceau $4Bn for vitamin water.  Vitamin soda is popular in Japan and I tried to bring it to the states 20 years ago and was laughed out of every venture capital firm in NY at the time.  Coke markets "Real Gold" in Japan, the type of energy/vitamin soda I wanted to import (also known as a "hangover cure") and  now both Coke and Pepsi are rolling out vitamin-fortified sodas as well but I think the field is wide open as "Diet Coke Plus" just doesn’t sound like a winner to me.

The company is growing growing their line of Rip It energy drinks, with a sideline "designed" for women but, as much as I like the Citrus X, I do question the wisdom of the powder additive as I can’t imagine bothering myself.

The bottom line is we’re looking at a major national distributor that is throwing their own products into the pipeline (they already have the sales guys, the trucks, the distribution centers and the vendor relationships).   Expectations have been very low for this company with just one analyst (and it’s Matrix) covering them so it’s no wonder the company recently took things into their own hands and initiated a strategic review to "focus attention on the Company’s balance sheet and organic growth requirements regarding its current surplus cash."

Earnings are scheduled for July 13th so we will be looking to sell some June calls while we wait.  Last quarter the company increased revenues 7% to $117M and EPS jumped 33% causing the stock to jump from $13 all the way to $17.50 before selling back off to where it caught our interest around $14 (pre split).  This was BEFORE the effects of the 5-year JDSA distribution deal began to kick in, a move which doubled Jones’ stock between March 1st and mid-April.

So I’m still enthusiastic about this one as it will take very little growth to make thier $600M market cap look very cheap indeed and the change in volatility has driven the price of the July $14.62 calls (used to be the $17.50s) up to .75 and we can look forward to selling these, or similar as a 5% monthly income producer against our stock until we get called away.  I’m playing them to retest $15 but we’ll probably sell at least half there.

If FIZ does start to fly, the JSDA Sept $22.50s for $1.52 should be a good play as well but these are very thinly traded contracts and I’d rather be selling contracts than buying them. 

Have a good weekend,

– Phil