Hey J – welcome back!
CAL – traffic not up as much as projected, fuel prices up…
TASR – selling June $10s for .55 XXX against leap
LOL – I screwed something up in ETrade (or they screwed something up who knows) and now I have 700 shorts AND 700 longs on DNDN and I will admit it has never occurred to me that you can even do this as I can now sell puts and calls against both ends. The $7.50 puts are .35 and the $10 calls are .23, that’s a .50 return on effectively no investment with no serious chance of damage as long as I exit the wrong side of the trade if either end is crossed…
WFR – I’m selling 1/2 July $60s for $4.50 against my Jan 10 $70 calls as I have 2 years to make it up if it goes the wrong way and the premium is $3. $2.15 for the July $65s is great too and I will probably take that for the other half if they get to $3, then stop out my $60 callers if it goes higher and roll them into the $65s for $4… XXX
CROX – I won’t short them, too strong.
TASR – yes against the open ones – I think they’ll pin $10.
NYX – if you have a margin issue you are best off spending $4 to roll down to the Jan ‘09 $85s or perhaps take some off the table and move to the Jan $85s for $10.15. Either way you could then sell the July $85s for the insane price of $4.30 with little damage to the upside.
MRO – going down in flames at the moment with those puts! I’ve only got July $115 puts 10 at $1 but it’s too far away to DD and I’m not in love with it enough to spend a buck to roll to the $120s, which is the intelligent play at this spot. In a vacuum, the correct play here is roll to the July $120 puts for $1, giving you a basis of $2.65 and to either a half out at $2.70 or a roll to the $125s when they hit $2 (followed by a dd at $1.75)
VLO – waiting and hoping!
GE – you would think they would hold $37.50 into expiration but they could break out here (when in doubt, sell half!).
DIS – DWA had a tough week on Shrek release and then exploded last Tuesday so I’m giving DIS one more day (but looking at DWA today makes me want to just get out).
ESLR – too early for me, leaps are down .10, I can wait.
QQQQ – held them a bit too long! I would leave them, buy the July $47 puts in equal amounts for .81 and sell the june $47 puts for .38 against them. Your existing $46 puts act as a buffer against a very big drop and the .38 you get for the June $47 puts is much more than you can get for your puts now and will leave you with the July $47 puts for a net roll of .57 (.81 + .12 lost – .38 collected), which is pretty good protection.
Oops, there goes the markets.
TWX, still in $10KP (not happy about it at the moment)
I’m taking PTR July $125 puts for $2.45 but no oils have been working so no Xs there.
With TWX, a DD is almost a no brainer as I can buy 20 more for July $22.50s for $300 (.15) leaving me with a basis of .225 on a contract that has traded higher than that every single day before today. It sure beats spending $10 in fees to take a $300 loss on the trade as it stands now so XXX as this is why I only took 20 contracts in the $10KP in the first place.
CHK posting new ATH – great call Z!
AMZN with a nice bounce.
RIG $100 plays – yeah fill up every container you have with gasoline!
HD and LOW are holding up well, as are the builders so I guess everything is just fine! Have to give up on oil here (up $1.37), it’s just not worth it the way they’re going. I’m selling XOM $85 puts for .75 (premium) to stop the bleeding on my leaps but I’m out of June puts with no roll and will hang on to July but not happily. XXX
CCJ is worth every penny. They control a good chunk of the world’s uranium and GE is going up because the world is moving ahead with orders on dozens of nuke plants this year which GE either builds or finances (or both). I’m close to selling the July $55s for $2.25 but I hate to try to call a top on these guys but I my basis on the Jan $60s is just $1.80 so it’s crazy not to sell and take the 100%+ for the month. Even if it shoots up I still have loads of time to roll with a $5 spread. XXX
RHT – I wasn’t expecting a test of $24 so soon! If it retakes $24.50 in a flat market I think I’ll be buying the long leg.
BA – just a question of when I want to let go of the insurance now, the .30 premium is doing me no good. I want to see how tomorrow shakes out in Asia but the best play here is to flip to the $1.40 June $100 caller now and then sell the July $100s, currently $3.10 to recover most of the $5.30 in new premium dollars pretty much by July 20th.
Here’s an Iron Butterfly you can try with Google, this is a very good one if you are already long on Goog as you have risk to the upside (over $507) but no downside risk until $492.
Buy 5 JUN 490.00 GOOG PUT (GOPRK) $1,485.00
Sell 5 JUN 500.00 GOOG PUT (GOPRO) $2,800.00
Sell 5 JUN 500.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFO) $6,050.00
Buy 5 JUN 510.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFU) $3,360.00
If you make this play you are risking about $1,200 (plus the $3,835 you collect) but if GOOG closes at $500 you could collect (keep) $3,800. Due to bid/ask spreads you will lose $400 just for getting into this so playing it should be considered a $1,200 lesson in managing complex spreads. You could do it with one and I will be tracking this. XXX
how about some bear call spreads on oil stocks.
buy July 130 call at 4.7, sell June 125 call at 4.8?
sorry that bear call spread was on MRO
MRO is a good play there MJ XXX
Some June Bear calls for a quick (hopefully) pay off:
IF TSO can stay below $65.70 you can pick up some money buying the $67.50s for .75 and selling the $65s for $1.45
PTR is unlikely to gain $5 more so the June $135s at $1.15 can be sold against the $140s for .35
OIH is always fun and I actually recommend selling the $175s for $2.35 against the $180s for .85 – I mean, come on – $175!!! XXX
NYX will pop after expiration but I just had to buy back the $85 caller for $2.50 but I don’t like leaving him naked!
Wow, AAPL Oct $105 puts only down .35 on the day – now that’s what I call good insurance!
FWLT – now is the time for men of conviction (or men who should be committed) to buy the $105 puts for $2! XXX if you can spare the $2!
FWLT – if you only have $10K, no – not a good idea as you are putting too much on the one bet. In my $10KP I have the Jan $95 puts which are down $1 and I need to consider rolling them to the Jan $100 puts for $8.75 and then selling the $105 puts for $2. It will tie up $900 of margin through expiration so I’ll decide tomorrow.
