Ouch – 30-year 5.16, 10-year 5.05, 2-year 5.01… That’s the trifecta of GET OUT! Time to set stops on naked calls or sell against leaps I think. XXX
Posted June 7, 2007 at 9:34 am Permalink (Edit)
OK – holding off on panic but standing ready to panic. Markets taking this very strangely in stride…
GOOG – this is what I don’t like about butterflies – too painful to fix when you’re wrong. With 5 contracts I have to balance my net loss of $765 with spending $2K to gamble on fixing it. I think what I’ll do is sell a couple of my June $510s here and leave 2 of his $500s naked for $5, then sell my other 3 and leave all of his naked with a stop at $531. XXX
INFY/CTSH – India is already way down and they’ve been holding up better than they should. I think the INFY July $50 put is a good bet through this expiration as I doubt they break it.
30-year 5.15%, up 1/4 point since last week – who needs a Fed hike when you have reality?
SU/MRO – with what’s left I’m going to stick it out a bit – expect a run-up into gas inventories at least, then we have the weekend with the Saudis threatening to retaliate if we keep investing in biofuels or whatever nonsense they are on about…
Now that my Goog $510 short call is naked (from that butterfly) there is no point in not selling my $490 put for .60 and leaving the $500 putter naked as I’d be thrilled to have to give him $10 if it falls that far (as my caller would be paying for it) XXX but you can see why I don’t like these plays, take forever just to make a couple of little changes!
FWLT looks ready for another leg down.
Holy cow – oil up $1.21 to $67. Very muted reaction from the oil patch so far.
MRVL has been beating the SOX all week so I’d say it’s baked in.
I’m seeing a lot of consumer stocks falling and a movement to drugs and energy (stuff you have to buy no matter what), not really a sign of health.
Knot is cranking!
ILF – Yes but I’m not in a hurry, have a $6 offer in.
TWX – they’re JULYS! It’s June! It’s nothing specific to them, all media is selling off so I’m going to hold in the hopes that, on a different week in the 5 we have left, that someone else will decide to buy media stocks. If they want to test $20.25, let them, I didn’t buy them as a day trade…
AAPL is much more impressive than GOOG at this point.
Picked up GCI $60s for .20, looking for 1/2 out at .30, maybe .40 if lucky (very risky as you lose a dime when you buy it).
WFR – when in doubt sell half – but I have no doubts.
110Bcf build, in line but bearish I think.
IBN – sold Jul $45s at $3.20, they look ill. XXX
I should have just gone with my gut first thing when those rates went up!
MO – thanks Chem, will look for some more at that price!
Bond market total disaster – support is shot and we could go much higher in rates. 5.5%+ would not be surprising soon as this could be a massive push on sub-prime debt. New Zealand, of all things, caused this by raising their rates, leaving the BOE all alone in holding rates steady. It doesn’t matter, all it leads to is people putting money somewhere else and us (the perpetual borrower) having to offer more and more interest to attract foreign capital. 30-year now at 5.18%.
DIS – offering .05 as DD for fun but I will be thrilled to get .20 back after that!
EWZ – you’re right Joe, ILF is a dead Index – I didn’t realize how dead, I just liked the potential movement in the contract but I don’t think there are any contracts to buy (and I’m not bidding up to find out). You won’t get as dramatic a move from the EWZ but the Sept $55s at $2.65 give you a ton of possibilities. XXX
OIH marching down again, SLB finally breaking, XLE still good to jump on, buying back XOM $85 puts I sold. XXX
FXI flying down!
I’m calling shenanigans on USO and taking a few $51 puts for .75 XXX
DIA/QQQ! – don’t forget to roll those mattress plays!
LOL – just picked up 20 more MO Spreads at .05 in STP! The logic is that we pay .05 for the Jun/Jul $75 put spread and next Friday, our putter loses his .60 premium and we should keep some of ours. XXX
EWZ – yes! Or as they say in Latin America – jes!
If it wasn’t for the Cramer pump, this would be much worse already. I’m cutting back on AAPL here, they can get to $130 without me! Selling $125s for $3.50 against my naked Jan ‘09 $120s. rolling my Oct $105 puts to $115 puts for $2.80 XXX
FAF, FNF, LFG all have a long way to fall if you need put plays – julys close to the money would be best, I’m full but it’s a very rate-sensitive group. xxx
Posted June 7, 2007 at 11:26 am Permalink (Edit)
XOM puts? I sold them for $1.55, bought them back for $1.6
MRVL – up in this mess along with AAPL. That IPhone must be AMAZING!
By the way, my taking a more bearish attitude on Apple solely reflects my thought that they finish expiration around $120, not in any way shape or form do I not love this company (much like a pet aligator, I’ve learned to love it with caution!).
OVEN – yes, that was catastrophic and there’s not much chance of recovery. Q1 was not what people had hoped, but was what I expected but I never imagined the reaction would be so harsh. I’ve been considering salvaging part of the .43 basis on the $15s by spreading the Oct/July $12.50s for .65, collecting .68 in premium that is currently .35 out of the money as I have the $15s as a buffer in case it runs up on me. I was first hoping to sell some $12.50s for .40 for the week but I can’t get that price after yesterday’s drop.
CROX Condor Play: XXX
Sell Jul $85 puts for $4.50, now $4.10
Buy Jul $80 puts for $2.50, 2.50 (net -$2, risk $5)
Sell Jul $85 calls for $8.50, now $8.30
Put buy order in for Jul $90s at $4.50, now $5.50 (net -$4, risk $5)
The risk is it keeps going up and you have to buy the $90s at $6.50 (about where I’d stop it) and have just a net -4 and the possibility of losing $1 if it breaks over $90 by July 20th. With this trade, at $85 you make $6 and up to $5 less than that as it moves out into your protects. This is a tricky play you have to work your way into but you could just be lazy and ask for the combo at a $5 credit and just hope you hit your range.
DAX resting at 5% rule no t good at all.
People snapping up a lot of rumor companies on the dips – may just be gambling to make up for losses.
Wow, should have stuck out NFLX yesterday – kudos to Najerian!
Transports would be more rate sensitive IF THEY INVESTED IN SOME DAMN INFRASTRUCTURE but, since this country makes no capital investments and they just run the rails until they fall apart and fly the airlines into the next bankruptcy – not too sensitive but the rate issue is an economy killer if we get to 6% and no one will be spared.
Up another 5% on the STP, 3% on LTP – hardly touched them! Wish I could say the same about the $10KP at $9,179…
FWLT about to see $100 for the first time since we bought it.
S&P at 1,501 – nasty stuff – don’t forget your mattress levels, shouldn’t have more than 3 open, top layer needs to come off at EOD with huge profits regardless. XXX
AAPL – good point Rocket – there was that silly issue with the firmware.
END holding $2.10, worth another round here. XXX
Hopefully we stabalize here (not looking good though) – Dow 13,350, S&P 1,500, Nas 2,550 – if we don’t settle above them then expect more of the same tomorrow. Feb 27th will be a fond memory compared to where we could go if commodities break down (and take the brokers with them).
CCJ suddenly not marketproof. If the commodity bubble bursts we could be in for a shocking correction.
Wow FAF really got clobbered since I picked them as a put. FNF and LFG will follow.
Speaking of DIA puts – still haven’t stopped out of the oriiginal $137 puts, now up 125% but I will take them off at day’s end as I’m all the way down to $132s now… XXX
MRO is one of the puts I kept (not many though) – we have the July $120 puts at $2.65, now $3.
TWX – LOL, I knew it was a flush!
VIX – that always happens on a big day – doesn’t mean we snap back.
Genuine correction – yes, global reality catching up with us, this will not be an easy bounce back if we drop another 150 tomorrow…
Good idea on FIZ Sage, forgot to sell the other 4 contracts at .90 XXX
FWLT – you never take a play on a change of direction of a stock that is finishing the day consolidating at the 5% rule. That is one of the weakest (or strongest if upside) end of day signals you will get.
Good call on POT, good time to get in on $73.38s for $1 as a nice overnight play XXX
Bounce – if you want to play the “bounce”, the QQQQ $47s were .70 yesterday, now .34 and the DIA $134s were $1.75 yesterday, now .95 – why try to pick one stock when those are just sitting there? Of course we were all to stupid to buy AMZN and CROX while we’ve been watching the market bounce for the last 1/2 hour…
VIX puts – you should have bought out your june caller at .40 but, if not, I wouldn’t pay him .55 as the only way volatility goes up from here is if we have a 200-point day to top this one. The calls topped out at .70 and dropped back to .55 fast with the VIX at 16.25 – we’re too close to expiration for that play to be likely. The good news is the July $17s flew up to .95 and those are worth selling for a buck. XXX Oh, I just realized you may not have the spread and want to buy puts – same concept – $1 for the $17s is crazy high, we’d have to move like this for 10 of the next 30 days to keep it up.
VIX puts are prop bets – there is no underlying security. I can’t even believe it’s legal but it’s a license to print money so far. Really though, they may as well let you bet football scores, there is no difference.
Bill Gross just changed his stance on bonds! That would ordinarily be huge news.
FWLT just took a dive again, just a dip but it broke $100.
ECA getting killed. Oops – everything going – sell program!!
