YHOO – offering $1.35 for remaining 2 July $27.50 puts in $10KP, I think $27 will hold, no biggie if I don’t get it. XXX FWLT still going down but let’s watch that one.
WFR – I did end up covering them fully July $60s as I lost faith in the whole market.
FWLT – Selling the July $95 puts for $4 XXX Keep in mind what a fantastic turnaround this is for a $10KP position that was down 30% (and you can see here how a DD would have been great if we had the money).
Headfake – anything less than a 20% retracement of yesterday is NOTHING, anything less than a 20% retracement of the week (about 100 pts) is not much at alll.
DIA puts – as insurance, that question is like saying is it too late to buy health insurance but as a trade, it’s 50/50 right now. I’m protecting myself by offsetting my DIA July puts (which have .25 tstops) with Aug $138 calls at $1.25, which should gain about .30 per 100 points. XXX
Well this is my rally premise – oil down and transports leading but oil needs to do better than this.
MA – market is totally schitzo if this one takes off.
JOSB – I smell a beat but $45 is a big number so I like the Oct $45s for $3.40/July $35s for $3.95 as you pocket .55 and risk $1 only on paper as he will certainly lose $2.15 in premium and you have 3 months on him so XXX for 5 in the $10KP
POT – good protection, GCI very iffy but stuck with my 20 as they are 1/2 off already (but we knew that).
June index puts – we put .25 trailing stops at each position and follow the same rules for reentry as we did for entry (pretty much whenever a DIA gets to $2, buy it and put .25 tstops on the rest, leave no more than 3 levels at the days end; for the QQQQs .90 is the spot I’ve been using with a .15 tstop). I’m out of all my DIA and QQQQ puts (I bought the August Calls earlier to offset the losses as I sold, now they function as protects on a bearish virtual portfolio) at the moment and will reenter on any downturn or at EOD regardless. The whole point to using them is BECAUSE they are so fluid and you can change your mind real fast (at the cost of a nickel or so).
JOSB – sorry Buying the Oct $45s for $3.5 and selling the July $40s for $4.10 (now)!!!! XXX That’s it, when I start making typos like that it’s time to hit a happy hour…
DIA Aug – just a day trade while I felt out if this bounce was going to turn into something. It’s always better to take one blanket cover than start freaking out over dozens of positions and I was way too bearish with all those DIA puts open. They’re already down .50 and looking attractive again so I’m going back into the July $132 puts at $2 and will be unlikely to let them go until Monday. XXXX
JOSB – yes I still like it as this is a math play more than anything. Your caller is inflated by earnings and if earnings are good, you will owe him back no more than $5 and will have August and September to make your in the money $3.55 calls (or you will probably be able to sell them for $3.55 anyway). If it goes down, you collect $2.30 in premium plus the .60 you pocket on the open so you should be in good shape there too.
SOX ironically holding up the market. VIX is dropping – you DO NOT want the VIX to drop while you are pointing down as it indicates you are heading in the right direction!
JOSB – I did not, ETrade wouldn’t take the trade! [Note – later made trade on OXPS]
X pulling a major 180 – something happened, taking July $120s for $5.40 and selling the June $120s, now $3.35 with a .35 tstop XXX
Sorry to be clear that means I’m NOT selling the Junes until I think it’s done going up but holy cow!!!
taking X $125s for $2.25 while we wait. XXX
Took $6.30 for the XFUs ($120s) .50 Tstop on XFEs, now $3.90. Sorry that one went to fast to be much use to most people – incredible move for a stock that big!
FWLT – now that volatility has been established our leaps are holding up much better and the calls we sold already lost $1!
Good time to restablish DIA puts as most of this move is on some vague excitement that’s squeezing the shorts. AA up 2.29%, GM up 3% (makes no sense if steel is going up), INTC up 2%, MCD up 1.4%, MSFT up 1%, T up 1.4%, UTX up 1% but HPQ down, JNJ down, DIS down, AXP down, MRK down, so it’s not broad based buying – looks like the consumer is dead but business spending will pick up kind of bet – not one I’d want to bank on.
Adding DIA $133 puts at $2.15 (my $132 puts are down to $1.80 on a 60-point run) but not letting go of my August calls yet. XXX
D’oh – X still going up, I may have to buy back my caller. I still have the $125s to make a roof though but once they stop out I have to put a stop at that level (of the underlying) on my caller or I risk blowing my profits as he only has $2 of premium.
GM – $32.25 is my usual put interest level. For some reason there’s a new round of suckers every month that takes them up to that level and the Kirkorean incident proved that you can DD and roll if it keeps going up from there as they are, in the long run, unbuyable.
Well 100 points sure looks like a recovery – but it also looks suspiciously like Asia did after lunch yesterday so be careful. Virtual Portfolios giving back a little (3%) but I’m just watching now, no desire to move things around just because the 10-year didn’t go to 5.25 in one day. If oil stays down we might actually have something though but the energy stocks are acting like this is very temporary.
QQQQ – Jul $48s at .50, you want to sell june $48s for .06? You MUST have low commissions! Try the $47s for .36, you can roll him to the late june $48s, now .29 and you are certain to gain .36 in premium so your 2 sells would put you in a net credit with a 20 day advantage on your 6/31 caller. XXX as a new trade since it’s good math!
X – LOL, I love rumors! I just sold some idiots $120s for $8.40 (avg) against my $125s to lock in $3.40 against the $2.75 (avg) I paid, less than the $5 I could have gotten but with the possibility of paying off $8.40 if this thing falls apart next week. This is a nice trick for entering rumor mo plays and not too bad since you’re gambling on quick profits that you lock in.
MA – much like X you can sell the $140s for $6.20 and cover with the July $145s when you have to, now $6.85 or just take the mo play. XXX
Dollar at 82.70, smoking the dollar shorts and offsetting rates a bit
GOOG – my target was $510
That’s it – NYMEX closes down $2, XOM at $82 is going to be a tough sell into expiration and July $80 puts are just $1.33 XXX
MOT – I always like the leaps but they haven’t liked me in a long time! If they break $18 it might be time to take a look at the ‘09 $20s.
Bear call on PTR VERY RISKY of $1.80 – First Selling $130s for $4.70 and buying $135s to cover, now $1.55. Premise is that China looks at $2 down oil and sells them off with the sector.
XOM Puts – don’t forget that that V can go the other way very quickly. If you bought them as in income producer (mine are more hedges against a catastrophic collapse which I use to scalp quarters), not selling at least the june $80 puts for .25 is a shame.
FXI calls very irrational. Selling $115s for $2 against Aug $120s for $4 if I can get it. XXX
Buy program kicking in!
END – I’m not sure that’s a big positive with a guy dumping 10M shares at 30% off yesterday’s price…
