Watch out for: NYSE 9,800. Nasdaq 2,550, S&P 1,500, Dow 13,350
Tight stops on Junes, including calls we sold as these are very nice gains that should be protected, we can always sell July if it turns again…
GOOG got a nice snap back already SLB tells me to dump my OIH puts. XXX
10-year 5.2%, 30-year 5.31% They have got to be kidding trying to rally back on this!
DNDN dropped below $8
GM getting close to that magic $32.50 mark where they start to make a great short.
MU crashing on that news??? I suppose I would keep the $12 lined up as a mo play at .10 just for fun if it comes back. XXX
JOSB – too much time to worry about it (this was a .80 credit spread and he’s got $2 in premium).
MS at an ATH, might be shortable. Poor HOV at 52 week low again. VNO going throught the floor along with BXP indicating the rest of the market is insane so be really, really careful!
Holy Cow – Jackpot on X puts!
IGW – they opened way higher, can’t catch them all… The SOX puts were gettable at $5.50 at the open, now $6.25 – a nice, quick 15%, which is all you should be looking for on these plays.
LEAPs – as long as volatility remains high we are in good shape but it’s all about position with leaps – as long as you can sell, you have no trouble.
Sold my OIH too soon! I have my eye on PBR $110 puts at .55 (craps roll) XXX
CNBC basically saying Builders conference is downright depressing.
NMX went crazy too – $125 puts for .48 (craps roll) XXX
WYNN – good plan, do keep stops though if the market takes off.
$10KP DNDN – took out my $10 putter at $2.35 (I was stuck with shorts a while ago and I think it’s going down). XXX
SBUX – I say it’s a Super Combo Mega Pin at $27.50 and, while it may consolidate there, I continue to buy more and I will roll or buy at $25 and $23 and will be happy to wait 2 years for it to get back to $40.
Ka Ching on PTR, hopefully PBR is next.
INTC refuses to go down… Not many others though!
STX – I finally gave up and sold the damn July $20s last week at $1.40 so I’m kind of stuck with mine (Sept $22.50s) but I’ll be thrilled to get even on this trade. As an entry, I do still like the Septembers at $1.10 but today is not the best day to add calls (not yet anyway).
DIS – as an STP play it’s a no brainer to DD at .05 as we can then buy Oct $37.50s for .60 and sell July $35s for .45, making back all the $37.50 money and using the $37.50s as upside stops (maybe 2:1 ratio), which will give us .30 back per July contract and leave us with our original target backed up to October. XXX In the $10KP, it’s a bit of a margin issue but the right play if you have the margin for it.
DNDN – no I had sold June $10 puts as I was holding the shorts and wanted to protect myself but now I’m taking them off on what I hope is downside momentem. Plus they had no premium left anyway so it’s time to sell Julys if I decide to keep milking this one.
CME – miles to fall, craps roll on $550 puts for $3.30
RIMM – same big gamble on the $165 puts for $1.65
DIS – well I forgot I already sold the June $35s against 120 July $37.50s and 60 July $30s for .30 (avg) which took care of all but .10 of my $37.50s but here’s the logic to get out of this.
With a .09 basis on the July $37.50s you just want to get your money back. Anything they are worth at the end is a pure bonus. If I have 80 of them then I want to buy 50 Oct $37.50s for .60 and sell about 30 July $35s for .45 giving me back $1,350 against my $720 worth of July $37.50s leaving me with a credit of $630 against my $3,000 worth of Oct $37.50s for a net of $2,370 or .39 against a current value of .60 with 80 free July $37.50s. If DIS moves up you can always roll or whatever as you have August and September as a buffer (plus a 5:3 advantage). XXX
Big spot for the Dow between 13,350 and 13,365 – hopefully it will hold. Out of the DIA $133 puts at $2 IF it breaks up here as I have more $134 puts anyway and I would want to roll them up to the $135 puts if we recover. Don’t forget we get trade balance at 2pm so we could still get a “shock” sell-off or a reversal (such fun!).
FAF, FNF continue to fly down – LFG may be next. All of these guys indicate housing and mortgage lending problems getting worse, not better. Still, rates are coming down which should help a little.
GOOG – I had a $510 target all month but it could go $10 either way (hardly a margin of error on a $500 stock). Still, I’m liking the $500 puts as a gamble at $1.42 – you never know. I would take them if I had naked calls but I don’t.
MO – I was just looking at those as it was concerning me too. Just the MM trying to rip you off as there is very low volume I think. Some idiot paid $5.60 today so they may as well ask for the moon but there’s 2,955 outstanding and they need to close them by Friday so I’ll be surprised if I have to pay more than a dime over the intrinsic value by then. Meanwhile, we’re hoping for a rally, the closer to $75 the better for us (counter intuative but true).
Home foreclosures jumped 19% in May!!! Up 90% for the year nationwide. Nevada, Colorado and CA lead the way. CA up 350% in May (not a typo) – Bye bye Dow!
PBR – we were looking for it to go the other way! 
Still, at .35 I’m willing to go another round for a .43 basis. RIMM and CME – just fun bets in case we dive 100 points in the afternoon, a sinking tide that will drag down all ships…
Oil looks like it wants to test $65 again.
OXPS – not a problem, you made your premium and now the Julys you want to roll to are offering you more money… Since you didn’t buy back your caller yet there’s no sense in taking a loss and giving up your insurance so the better play is selling the July $25s for $2.30, picking up another .90 premium and protecting you from a hefty pullback. I’m way ahead so I’ll be selling the July $27.50s for $1 XXX
LOL Z – I thought you had gone mental! I am just raking it in on TSO with 3 naked puts but the slowest gainer so far is the Aug $55 puts, just $2.50 but the Aug $57.50 puts are $3.50 and I’m considering rolling there for $1 and selling puts as momentum trades next month (the July $57.50 puts are $2.73).
I’m paranoid that Bush speaking in an hour, Greenspan speaking and the trade numbers at 2 is orchestrated to set up a massive short squeeze so I’ve got my finger on the DIA $134s, now .57 as a mo play as well as the GOOG $510s, now $2.35. It’s not so much I think sinister forces are orchestrating it but the confluence of 3 positive statements will make you think people are out to get your bearish virtual portfolio (although judging from today’s moves, I’m pretty well neutral).
RHT – You did not get a great entry… your basis is $1.65 but you don’t want to risk the same volatility crush the closer callers will get so the best move is to either: A) Sell the July $22.50s for $1.85, picking up a $1.25 premium and risking the additional .65 spread (but you have Aug left to sell). B) Sell the July $25s for .80 leaving you with a .85 basis C) Roll to Sept $22.50s for $1.10 ans still sell the July $22.50s for $1.85 leaving you .60 in the money with a .90 basis. For me, I go with B as I am bullish and willing to take the chance on earnings. XXX
FIZ – they moved to the Nasdaq, now FIZZ (very confusing trying to follow these guys).
NFLX – we’re even so far so you could just sell the July $25s and take the .30 and be happy or spend .55 to roll down to the Sept $22.50s, now $1.15 and then sell the Jan $22.50s for .75 or better or, if it goes the other way, get $1.20 for the $20s but then you have to be careful with them. XXX
In on the GOOG $510s at $2.50, seemed safer than the Dow calls and more potentially rewarding. XXX probably out at $2 but maybe not, depends what the market does…
I’m trying to figure out the positive spin on the 10-year auction and I guesss it’s that we don’t need no stinkin’ foreigners to buy our notes as we can keep them under 5.25% on our own – it’s a stretch but it seems to be what the market is reacting to – now we’ll see if my google cover was better than a DIA cover (still going to take those DIA July $135 puts by EOD). XXX
X – bought back $110 caller, too risky of nice profits. XXX
DIA July – see earlier post (11:37). Also, trade numbers out in 90 seconds – could get a quick reverse so hair trigger on GOOG here as $3.25-$3.50 is huge money on a cover play! XXX
Deficit was -$67.7Bn, in line and quite a bit worse than the -$42.9Bn from last month but it’s all about having low expectations so congrats to US for not sucking as bad as people thought!!!
GOOG – 1/2 out at $3.50, stop at $3 on the rest but not a trailing stop, just keeping an eye on it now. Somebody just paid $4 so we might get lucky. XXX
GOOG – might get interesting again around $505 (see, I fixate on it, very bad for me to play!).
Oil saved by afternoon mega-pump.
YHOO – can’t take it any more. Selling 3 more July $27.50s for $1.40 in $10KP. XXX
Fundamentally this rate thing is good for companies like GOOG and MSFT, who are cash machines that don’t need to borrow money.
Look at INTC go! SOX making a stealthy comeback… This is what I keep saying, semiconductors aren’t made of oil, this would be great if we get some rotation into tech leadership (but then I’ve been hoping for that since 2005!).
MU flying too. Taking .25 for 1/2 my $12s XXX
