Expiration Day Game Plan

This is my current thinking.

I’m assuming no great up or down move (ha!) between now and Friday but more prepared for a sell-off than retaking 13,700.   Of course I did say we’d flatline around 13,500, but this is a pretty strange way to go about it – but it’s been great for the STP and LTP as we crushed the positions we sold:

$10KP

• DIS (8/1) Jul $37.50s – .26, now .05

I have no plan, very bad!  There was an elaborate save in the STP for the same position and if they $10KP is not all your money it’s a good save but otherwise, I have no choice but to ride this out.  Everyone is wrong about this stock and I will buy them again into earnings!

• TWX (8/1) Jul $22.50s – .23, now .05

OK, entertainment may not have been thr right space…

• DNDN (?) Jul $10s – $1.07, now .20
  • Sold Jun $10s for .87, now 0

Spread held so we are just hoping for a pop, will roll to Aug at some point.  Just hoping to get lucky

• FIZZ (?) Oct $12.50s – $1.45, now $1.40
  • Sold Jun $12.50s for $1.45, now .50
    • If it doesn’t expire worthless will just roll, every sale is profit now.

Happy with these, even though the stock crashed it’s at my target price (which is why we sold the Junes).

• FWLT (?) Jan $95 puts $8.20, now $7.50
  • Sold Jul $95 puts $4.20, now $1.90
    • Will roll to $100 puts, now $9.70.  Then roll $95 caller to July $100 puts at $3.25
    • Costs $1 to gain $5 in position, very good trade.

Shocked at how well the stock keeps doing.

• GSK (7/25) Nov $52.50 – $2.75, now $3.20
  • Sold Jul $50s for $2.65, now $3.30

Just have to wait this one out and hope they don’t discover something.

• JOSB (?) Oct $45s – $4, now $4.90
  • Sold Jul $40s for $4.80, now $6

Not worth worrying about, long time to go, Aug and Sept to roll to.

• MO (7/18) Jul $75 puts – $4.40, now $4.80
  • Sold Jun $75 puts $4.30, now $4.80

Hopefully this will correct itself by Friday.  Premium on Sept $75 is .65 so you would think we could get a dime!

• YHOO (?) Oct $30s – $2.30, now $1.50
  • Sold Jul $27.50s for $1.80 avg, now $1.45

After being burned and burned and burned by this stock, not looking to buy back July caller too quickly.

Long-Term Virtual Portfolio (Planned changes only mentioned)

• CC (6/20) Jan $22.50s – $1.10, now .30
• CC (6/20) Jan $17.50s $1.20, now $1.65
  • Hoping to sell July $17.50s for $1 against $17.50s only

Just trying to get even on this trade

• LVS (?) Jan $80 puts – $2.05, now $9.20
  • I’m done with these, will stop out or possibly sell Jul $80 puts as mo play but mostly done with these

It was a good run but I’ve seen these guys jump before and it would be silly to let it happen.

• XOM (?) Jan ’09 $75 – put $5.90, now $4.60
  • Rolling to $80 puts, now $6.40
• XOM (?) Jan $75 – put $2.40, now $2.20
  • Rolling to $80 puts, now $3.70

Spend $2 and $1.50 to buy $5 in position – Priceless!

• COF (?) Jan $75s – $8.10, now $10.90
  • Sold Jun $75s $3.60, now $5.70
    • Premium is gone, need to roll him to Jul $75 for $6.70

Last summer they were catastrophic so I’m not risking it.

• FXI (n/a) Jan $120s – $3.70, now $8.90
  • Sold Jun $112s $3.95, now $5.95

This will only get worse, will take perhaps $2 loss and roll up to highest July I can.

• ISE (?) Jan $45s – $6.10, now $20.50
  • Rolling to Jan ’09 $65s for $4.75 (rest off the table)
• Sold Jun $65s .80, now .60
  • Rolling to July $65s, now $1.50

Really no sense in tying up that kind of money.

• OVTI (?) Jan ’09 $15s – $3.05, now $3.90
  • Sold $15s for .80, now .60
    • Rolling to July $15s, now $1.05

They’ve been weak, not going to risk them naked

• SNDK (?) Jan $45s – .35, now $5.20
  • Sold $42.50s $2.65, now $1.80
    • Rolling to July $42.50s for $2.85

Not taking chances as SOX have been pathetic.

There is no time in my week to write up the complex spreads but feel free to ask if you are in one of them.  Each one is like an essay!