You guys can all laugh later but I’m doing a mon back on PTR $145 puts at $2.55! XXX
FXI no, that was on the gamble that the HSI would tank. The Shanghai took a 2% hit but not the FXI basket. FMCN doing quite well though! Best for FXI is is to roll up if you don’t believe in the rally (I don’t) so I’m selling now and buying back a higher bracket (whatever I can afford) when it stops going up.
I’m very serious about stopping out – I don’t care what it is but anything showing signs of weakness is getting chopped. XXX
RIMM – I’m short so no long entry from me! Of course I’m out of the puts I sold for overnight protection. XXX
FXI had trouble at $128
GLW – not unless I get a compelling reason, tempting though it may be but I’m smelling that kind of smell when someone touches the grill – could be a bad burn coming for the market!
PTR – well if you want to set a stop for a day trade then 30-40% for 1/2 is best but maybe set a $2.15 back stop as that would likely be a strong break over $150.
CRS – good call Bryan, looks like a breakout! Thinly traded $140s are $2.23, make a nice mo play with a .25 tstop. XXX
That had to be the most bearish possible inventory report thay could have had. It is stunning that these oil companies can even support themselves here!
ICE – very good for them but still they trade down on BOT overhang.
HOV making new 52-week lows!
This oil report was genuinely great for stocks so anything less than 1,540 means this rally is tired.
TSO/VLO – looks more like an opportunity to short to me!
TWX with a nice little move today in the $10KP. 1/2 out at .30 if I can as it was a DD with a .225 basis. XXX Might take that money to do something with DIS, which is down for no reason.
PTR – value of 4Bn shares may be just $6Bn, not going to be very dillutive to $266Bn company so let’s turn that into a day trade and be happy with a small gain.
$10KP FWLT – need to be ready to sell the $105 puts against our $105 leaps if they break and hold $107.50 (they are right there now).
There go the TWX – hope I don’t regret it too much!
Dont’ watch VLO, watch XOM, much harder to fake. CVX $$85 puts at $2.60 have just a .70 premium XXX
FMCN – if you bought the stock per yesterday’s play, now would be a good time to sell the $45s at $2.75 XXX
Oil getting near my $67.50 target so we should at least get a bounce here, maybe a retest of $68 but that was a terrible inventory report.
OIH finally cracking!
Entire STP is cranking, I guess I was a little more bearish than I thought..
In Free Pick virtual portfolio – CROX Iron Condor is up $3,660 and should be sold since it’s off target. XXXX
ICE – techincal sell of $160s for $8.30 naked, they were worth $5 on Monday. XXX if you have the margin for it. Not worth a bear call…
ICE – no the premiums are too ridiculous, that’s what I was trying to take advantage of. Notice they’ve only gone up to $8.95 despite a $1.50 gain. I’m not going to push it too far but I’m hoping for a turn. Rather than take a loss here I could roll him up to the $165 calls for $6.80, buying myself $3 of additional extrinsic value for .75 so I’m not even close to being concerned yet. By the way, I do realize how amazingly unfair it is that people with less margins can’t do these trades – all goes back to why some sort of club makes sense for people, pool resources to be able to trade under better conditions…
MSFT – hmm, I need to find a less subtle way to say I’m not into taking new positions in what I consider a very dangerous market… Perhaps: DON’TBUYDON’TBUYDON’TBUYDON’TBUY 
AAPL – not a good time to be naked long. At least have some Oct puts for protection but the only possible reason not to at least sell the $130s for $2.90 (a 10% premium) is that you are so greedy that you can’t bring yourself to accept a $10 move in the stock and say, that was a satisfying amount of money to make in a month after I was getting nervous about my position.
30 minutes until NYMEX close, can they hold $68? Sharon says report is shocking! Highest levels of crude since May 1998 (when oil was $25 a barrel). Isn’t it funny how that just kind of sneaks up on them just because of a 6.9Mb build (and there’s still at least 15Mb parked in ships offshore).
TSO is like a rattlesnake with live a cobra in it’s mouth if you are a short but right now I’m just keeping an eye on it and seeing what shenanigans the NYMEX close brings. They are flatlining at the 5% rule from Monday so you have to be able to gut out a .60 retracement from here ($61.90) before we know if it’s a turn or just a dead cat bounce. Of course rule #2 – when in doubt, sell half EXACTLY applies here!
Well that was fun pretending the market wasn’t going to go down wasn’t it?
AIR… Stops on ALL naked positions are 20% of the profits. Stops on covers are 20% of the profits. Stops on complex spreads are 20% of the profits…
My EBAY, YHOO, TXN, INTC, IBM, GE team are starting to fold. “Turn out the lights… the party’s over…”
Don’t forget to ladder your DIA puts!
Ka-Ching on ICE puts!
CVX was a good choice, asking $1.25, very happy.
FWLT down nicely – good break in $10KP!
FTO with a nice collapse – Z’s call for the week.
Mattress mattress mattress, this could get super ugly tomorrow as Asia is way too high and could snap and Europe is near ATHs and could snap and we could open down another 100 tomorrow. XXX
ICE – out at the close of course!
DIA – Jul $135 puts at $1.90, with the DIA a good rule of thumb is whatever is at $2 you should be buying with no more than 3 active layers and a .25 Tstop on the top layer and even stop on layer 2.
