Oil crooks are getting greedy, this is no time to go for $70 but they want to establish high ground on the new contract.
XOM $85s are $1.40 and make a good cover IF it starts to run past $84 but I’m not selling until they show me the money at $70 (will DD and roll a few if given the chance as I cut back on all yesterday).
Selling OIH $175s for $6.20 against Aug $180s for $6.30 – selling first and buying Aug at no more than $6.60 but hopefully enough less to put me in a credit spread. XXX
BBY and SBUX (and everything) covered – I only hope they are covered enough!
OIH, if it keeps going down I may just take the money on the sold calls and not bother with the other end. XX
XOM still in denial, $80 puts back to .53 and worth a gamble XXX
PTR getting a lot of sellers, worth selling the $145 calls for $8 XXX
By the way – these are day tades with 15% trailing stops, just hoping for a nice downturn but don’t forget the gas report is at 10:30 so be ready to get out if they rally.
XOM – what I am now doing is working into a spread of the $80 puts, now .47 and the $85 calls, now $1.40 in a 2:1 ratio. Given that there’s a month left, a $5 move either way would work out very nicely!
Don’t forget to roll DIA longs if you have them! – same collar concept.
$10KP – buying 40 msft Aug $32.50s for .17 and selling 10 July $30s for .75 XXX
MSFT – sorry, of course wait for mo to sell calls! XXX
BBY – the Jan $46.62s are a good deal at $3.03, that’s $1.30 for you to gain $3.40 in position. You can offset that by selling the $45s for .88 for a net of .42 which puts you in the $3.03 position for a $2.52 basis with 5 months of sales left and just $1.62 out of position on your caller.
SBUX – I am rolling down myself, not selling till I see what’s up. You can move to the $27.50s at $1.90 for less than$1, gaining $2.50 in position on a call that was trading at $2.40 yesterday. XXX
A SOX rally! Just what we always wanted! Covering some of my puts with QQQQ $48s for .23, were .40 yesterday but I will sell them at .18 so it’s just a .05 insurance play against things running away. XXX
FXI – I really don’t think they’re going to break out here but my FXI’s are gone except for the very painful FXI $129 calls I sold yesterday for $4, now $4.75 as a “smart” way to get out of the $120s I had sold. If I were still in the puts I would roll them up to the $130 puts for $4.30 as they are relatively underpriced and I would sell the $132 puts, now $6.20 if it started getting away from me as a momentum play.
ATTN RALLY MONKEYS: A 1/3 gain after a big drop is NOT a rally. I know this is shocking but it really isn’t. Please contain you exuberance until the S&P gets back over 1,520 – thank you!
FWLT – back to having to cover in the $10KP if it breaks over $104. The $105 puts are $4.90 and I would want to get at least $4.50 for them but I still don’t think this rally is going to stick so I’m slow on the trigger. XXX
FXI – sorry I think I did say $130s before but they were $129s (I tend to think in round #s).
This “rally” is now supposedly based on the BSC situation looking like they may be able to restructure the fund – idiotic premise for a rally as the fact is that here’s a very big, very public fund that, in the very least, came inches from obliteration – what will save the next one, and the one after that, and the one after that. There were $500Bn worth of sub-prime loans last year alone and this is one $20Bn fund…
MSFT – not a good play if you don’t have spare margin. I couldn’t make it in my Etrade account, which has just the $10KP but no problem in linked account so it depends how you have it set up. Also not good if you have a high commission structure (another Etrade drawback) but the goal is to either get 40 Free (including commissions) MSFT Aug $32.50s on July $20s or to be holding (for example) 40 Aug $32.50 calls that are in the money and having to pay $2,500 to your July caller.
OIH – caller is up .50 and cost of Aug is up .35 so far, not worried yet. This is the problem with being a fundamentalist as chart watchers are always trying to “save” you when the little line wiggles the wrong way. 
XOM – same thing with fundies. I’m short but covering up so I get overweight to the downside with cheap (now .43) puts and patiently add to the upside. If it really takes off on my I can sell my $85s and buy 4x $90s and just keep the two sides hoping to get them back to a buck at some point where I can cash out even and keep the change riding. XOM looks done here (from a chart perspective).
XOM – I’m taking $1.80 if I can on the XOM calls, I really don’t see them breaking out from here. That would bring the basis on my puts down to .25 and my next move would be to match them up with $90 calls if it does keep going higher.
Qs gone already.
BXP, VNO looking tragic make sure you have covered any long DIAs XXX
XOM – decided to be glad to get my money back on the calls! Avg put is .45 and I’m just going to ride those down. XXX
SU wins our delusional oil company of the day award. $90 puts were $3 yesterday, now $2.42 XXX with a .25 tstop
TM – Absolutely, you gain $5 in position for $1, simple as that. Your $130 caller offers you little remaining protection at .73 while the $125 caller will pay $2.20 – a much better tenant!
RDS.A $80 puts make a nice mo play at $1.68. XXX
Europe closing down 1.5%
FMD – tricky rate sensitivity on their outstanding fixed rate loans makes them always hard to figure out.
Philly Fed came in better than expected at 18, was 4.2 in May. Prices paid went down a bit (29.7 vs 32.3) and employment dropped off considerably (5.6 vs 12.9). New orders 18.3 vs 8.7 way up. This should push us green again and, if it doesn’t, something else is very wrong.
GOOG – selling the $510 calls for $17.50, selling the $510 puts for $15+ (no less than $13), Buying the Aug $530s for $14.90 (less I hope) and the Aug $490 puts for $10.10. The big danger of this trade would be a huge gap up or down on earning which could cost about $12 but I like the play.
AAPL – establishing $120 puts for $3.30 with intention of buying Aug $130s for $5 or less as an IPhone spread.
Don’t forget this is the new oil contract that’s getting off to a bad start but $68.50 is still a long way from an economic comfort zone.
IRBT still unstoppable!
SU – trailing stops are just guidelines. If you are scaling into a position you may just want to accumulate again at that spot, which would lower your basis by .12 and then set a new trailing stop off your new basis. Scaling in is the most important thing you can ever learn how to do when trading. I used to not give trailing stops because everyone takes them literally but then people don’t stop out at all which is much worse..
T $40s are .68 XXX
I’m worried so I’m selling the FWLT $105 puts for $5.50 against my Nov leaps in the $10KP, that covers 1/2 my position with a $3 premium. XXX
