RIMM – oh sorry. If anyone was in on that spread from yesterday the least complicated thing to do is take the loss but you could also either A) buy out a few of your callers or B) wait for a top (maybe $200, maybe $195) and then sell the Augs and wait for a pullback to buy back the very dangerous, naked $165s. No matter what, it is unlikely that the $5 premium for the Aug $175s will last long and the caller has no premium. If you can afford it you can also roll your caller up to the $195s at $7 which is what I’m doing but it means taking a $23 hit which you can offset by rolling the Augs up to $200, now $11.80 when the premium there calms down a bit.
RIG – I held half and I’m thinking of getting back in here. If they can’t break $107 at $70.65 oil I’m back to my original premise that they are good to DD and roll.
BIDU could go on forever but I can’t chase them here. BEAV is always one of my favorites but also not a chaser.
Oil – logic will get you nowhere Z! BHI $85s are just $2.22 if you need an upside cover. XXX
DIA, a big gamble this close to expiration but fun. I said yesterday I think they will pin 13,500 and there seem to be plenty of sellers above there.
T – now you’re gamblin.’ How many subscribers will they report over the weekend and, more importantly, how many come from another carrier? I think Apple is scamming us and there are MILLIONS of these things ready to go as they are letting people in line buy 2, which makes no sense if they have a limited supply as most analysts believe. When in doubt sell half would apply here.
RIG having trouble up here. OIH may roll over but I’m loathe to chance it with oil at $70+ so maybe just a few…
CCJ – I certainly do like them and on TIE I picked up a few Sept $35s but not making major moves in either direction.
DIS with a pulse! CROX finally found a bottom. BIDU incredible!
Now the DIA $135 puts for .25 are looking like a fun gamble but I’m hoping for .15, looking to make a dime.
PALM – I’m not chasing but I don’t think it’s unrealistic to say they are near death. You rarely see a company blow itself up this badly, especially a niche player but they have simply screwed up every single step of the way for 2 years!
C going down. I don’t see why but I can think of some reasons so the $50 puts for .32 are a fun trade. XXX
RIMM – I meant the Augs for position, don’t know where I got the price.
BSC taking a dip.
XOM – I HAVE to take $85 puts into the weekend for just $1.58! XXX
Piper J says 200,000 IPhones this weekend and Pacific Crest says 400,000 – don’t tell me NONE of those people are RIMM customers… Now here’s a guy saying 45M by 2009. That would be $22Bn!
So much for my TOL play. Builders getting hit now, brace yourselves for bad news from someone in that sector.
OK, that’s it for me. I’m taking $28 for the RIMM Aug $175s and leaving the July $165 caller naked for now. If they break up from here I will roll him up into whatever ($200s are $7.20) and wait it out but I smell a pullback and I’d be thrilled to get out of that sale even (buy him back for $28) as I’ve already got $2.30 in my pocket on this trade. XXX
CROX breaking 5% rule – new shoes not so dumb after all.
Here it is – new study sees huge increase in Alt-A delinquencies, now 4.2% up from 1.6% last year. Alt-a are near prime, this is TERRIBLE! 95% LTV ratios are average. These loans predominate refis and second mortgages. DIA $135 puts are .48 XXX
RIMM – 18M shares traded/10M shorts, I included that in my earlier $200 guess for a top.
GOOG – I’d establish the 5x Aug $510 puts at $11.95 as a new play into earnings and buy 2x the Aug $530s, now $18.15 and wait to scale into the rest. With luck they’ll sell down and you can flip to the $520s for $18 or less between now and earnings and, if they start to run up, you can greab 3x the $530s for $15 and sell the $520s for $23 and roll up your puts for $4 leaving you 5:3 short and looking for your next round of calls.
T – took $1.45 and ran on my remainings.
Very easy to call a bonce here – watch Nas 2,600 and S&P 1,500. If they hold we might get yet another reverse and the DIA $133s have no premium or you can take a chance with the $134s on momentum at perhaps .15 but GE not making a turn look very likely.
Rebounce – doubtful, that’s why we were watching the S&P and Nas for a bounce point, breaking those led to this flood down but it is EOQ so take the money and run on these money plays. XXX
Posted June 29, 2007 at 3:23 pm Permalink (Edit)
XOM etc – only some. I just made more money than I was hoping to make on Monday so foolish not to take it off the table even though tempting. I’m rolling to $80 puts at .45 so I don’t feel like I’ll miss out too much. XXX
