Wow, what a crazy finish that was!
I said last weekend that we needed to practice James Bond Investing, trusting no stock and no direction, being ready to kiss or kill at a moment's notice as it seemed that virtually every position was out to get us at some point during the week.
Out of 68 closed positions this week, 13 were trades on the DIA, 6 puts and 7 calls – talk about being a double agent! We flipped flopped and flied through the week, taking 3 different positions on the DIA on Friday alone which yielded a double and a triple in intraday trading. It wasn't just the index funds we had a treacherous relationship with, we made money buying and selling GOOG and RIMM and ZMan and I were even forced to align ourselves with our arch nemesis, Big Oil, as we took bullish positions on XOM, VLO, EOG and (gasp!) TSO during Wednesday's oil report. As I said in that wrap-up: "We don’t care if the game is rigged, as long as we know which way it’s rigged!"
Speaking of RIG, I did hold those $100 puts into the weekend (even at .80), but that's something we can talk about on Monday as the latest on oil is they are ramming flaming cars into British airports now.
We survived a heavy data week in pretty good shape, although it baffles me how as most of the data was negative but we literally are so far in cash now that it's hard to be concerned. The week had a finish straight out of a Bond film as well with the release of the IPhone, a gadget so advanced you can almost imagine Q saying to James Bond: "It stores 8 Gigabytes of audio and video files, it's a portable computer with keyless entry, it's a camera, it has internet access and mapping capabilities – oh and it also makes phone calls." Personally I'm waiting for the model that includes a taser – then I'm ready to go on a mission!
The Fed continued it's mission this week to pretend that inflation is something that doesn't touch the average consumer as we all drive cars that consume no fuel and eat at the government commissary. Perhaps if we forced these guys to live in the suburbs they would wake up and smell the non-core numbers… As is typical in bond films, suspect organizations go through henchmen faster than the White House goes through District Attorneys and this weekend BSC terminated fund manager, Richard Marin and BZH tossed their Chief Accounting Officer under the bus as the Feds closed in because he didn't destroy documents fast enough tried to destroy documents. While all this turmoil is going on some evil organization takes over the airwaves and tries to convince the people that there is no subprime spillover effect. Cut across the pond and terrorists are attacking multiple targets around England and our energy future is being held hostage by other terrorists while a Venezuelan Strongman is taking over billions of dollars of US oil interests. On top of all this some supervillain has put his people into top governement positions and is systematically attempting to destroy our planet – Oh my!
Quick, we don't have time to wait for James Bond. Just give me an IPhone and if the taser function isn't ready I'll just throw it at the bad guys, apparently the IPhones are strong enough to take it!
Fortunately our virtual portfolios were strong enough to take it this month and, in fact, we simply thrived on the chaos thanks to some pretty good market timing calls by yours truly (see just about anything I wrote this month!) made possible by the more and more transparent market games that are being played as Big Oil, Big Brokers, Big Government, Big Banking and Big Money (the 1,000) fight over the last of the easy money that stands to be made. The first party guest to lose this multi-trillion dollar game of musical chairs is Big Builders, who were left to die on the table as Big Brokers cut and ran on them as they, along with Big Banking and Big Money are each very nervous about not finding a seat the next time the music stops.
Since we made a nice pile of cash to sit on over the past few weeks and were smart enough to get out early and watch from the sidelines, this holds more of an academic interest for us at this point but we can't wait for all the running around to end as we are well rested and anxious to jump in for the next round. We continued to move to cash this week and are up to 80% cash in the Short-Term Virtual Portfolio, where we closed 68 positions for a 101% average gain. We took very few new positions this week (other than day trades) and our remaining 51 open positions have turned a bit more bullish, hoping for a little boost from earnings season with a 151% year-to-date advance overall.
The Long-Term Virtual Portfolio was little touched but once we see which way the wind is blowing next week I intend to do a full review. There's not much to complain about there with a 135% gain to date on 32 open positions. Our notable uncovered calls are all chips: SNDK, TXN and WFR because if we are going to have a rally, it better be SOX-led! Open puts there are on XOM (of course) and GM, who simply went up too far to be ignored but just an entry position so far on the Jan $35 puts.
I made no progress with the $10KP but it was nice not to lose any ground there too, still down 30% in 10 positions and there were just no plays jumping out at me that I wanted to take as the last thing we want to do is lose more money there! Our Complex Spreads Virtual Portfolio is up 45% across 18 spots despite the beating we took on that RIMM condor so I'm thrilled with that, hopefully things will settle down after earnings and we can make some more plays for both of these folders.
Our boring old Stocks Virtual Portfolio was so dull we didn't touch it this week and our 8 positions held up well at 33%, up a point for the week. None of our covered positions are behind on the call side, which indicates to me that there's still a lot of underlying weakness in the broader market. I did and extensive write up of the Free Picks Virtual Portfolio, which is outperforming the rest of our book with a 183% gain in just 2 months with just 9 positions left. Unfortunately, one of those positions is naked GOOG Sept $550 calls for $32K as I removed the covers on a run up (smart) but them forgot to recover into the weekend (dumb) as I committed two cardinal sins of investing – I forgot why I was in the trade (to sell shorter calls) and I mis-sized the position for the virtual portfolio once I left it naked. We do have the Google condor there, which offers some downside protection but no enough to protect 20 open calls – hopefully I will be able to fix this on Monday morning with no damage.
On the whole it was a very exciting week, which flew by. We have a holiday right in the middle of this week and light data throughout but with the quarter ending and the Hamptons calling, we can expect a lot of fund managers to do some serious positioning next week and it will give us a chance to feel the currents as they form:
|
Description |
Basis |
Open |
Sale Price |
Close |
Gain/Loss |
% |
| 5 JUL 830.00 $RUT CALL (RUZGF) | $ 7,635 | 6/22 | $ 10,540 | 6/27 | $ 2,905 | 38% |
| 5 AUG 840.00 $RUT CALL (RUZHH) | $ 12,160 | 6/22 | $ 13,850 | 6/29 | $ 1,690 | 14% |
| 30 JUL 125.00 AAPL CALL (APVGE) | $ 9,310 | 6/20 | $ 15,290 | 6/26 | $ 5,980 | 64% |
| 10 JUL 45.00 BBY CALL (BBYGI) | $ 1,410 | 6/20 | $ 1,290 | 6/27 | $ (120) | -9% |
| 20 JUL 140.00 BSC PUT (BSCSH) | $ 6,010 | 6/29 | $ 9,990 | 6/29 | $ 3,980 | 66% |
| 100 JUL 50.00 C PUT (CSJ) | $ 3,010 | 6/29 | $ 5,990 | 6/29 | $ 2,980 | 99% |
| 10 JUL 50.00 CCJ CALL (CCJGJ) | $ 1,310 | 6/26 | $ 2,490 | 6/27 | $ 1,180 | 90% |
| 50 JUL 80.00 CVX PUT (CVXSP) | $ 1,260 | 6/26 | $ 3,240 | 6/27 | $ 1,980 | 157% |
| 25 JUL 27.50 DELL PUT (DLQSY) | $ 260 | 6/6 | $ 990 | 6/27 | $ 730 | 281% |
| 150 JUL 135.00 DIA CALL (DAWGE) | $ 24,910 | 6/22 | $ 27,740 | 6/25 | $ 2,830 | 11% |
| 50 JUL 136.00 DIA PUT (DAZSF) | $ 12,260 | 6/25 | $ 16,490 | 6/26 | $ 4,230 | 35% |
| 100 JUL 134.00 DIA PUT (DAWSD) | $ 20,010 | 6/25 | $ 20,990 | 6/27 | $ 980 | 5% |
| 200 JUL 135.00 DIA PUT (DAWSE) | $ 25,010 | 6/22 | $ 56,990 | 6/27 | $ 31,980 | 128% |
| 200 JUN 134.00 DIA CALL (HLKFD) | $ 7,010 | 6/27 | $ 14,990 | 6/28 | $ 7,980 | 114% |
| 100 JUL 135.00 DIA CALL (DAWGE) | $ 16,610 | 6/22 | $ 17,490 | 6/29 | $ 880 | 5% |
| 50 JUN 134.00 DIA PUT (HLKRD) | $ 1,510 | 6/29 | $ 4,240 | 6/29 | $ 2,730 | 181% |
| 50 JUN 136.00 DIA PUT (HLKRF) | $ 5,510 | 6/29 | $ 8,990 | 6/29 | $ 3,480 | 63% |
| 50 AUG 138.00 DIA CALL (DAZHH) | $ 260 | 6/8 | $ 5,090 | 6/29 | $ 4,830 | 1858% |
| 100 JUN 134.00 DIA CALL (HLKFD) | $ 510 | 6/25 | $ 13,490 | 6/29 | $ 12,980 | 2545% |
| 40 JUL 136.00 DIA CALL (DAZGF) | $ 2,810 | 6/21 | $ 6,790 | 6/29 | $ 3,980 | 142% |
| 350 JUL 136.00 DIA CALL (DAZGF) | $ 24,510 | 6/21 | $ 59,490 | 6/29 | $ 34,980 | 143% |
| 200 JUL 135.00 DIA PUT (DAWSE) | $ 37,010 | 6/27 | $ 49,990 | 6/30 | $ 12,980 | 35% |
| 120 JUL 35.00 DIS CALL (DISGG) | $ 2,770 | 6/6 | $ 4,190 | 6/29 | $ 1,420 | 51% |
| 20 JUL 7.50 DNDN CALL (UKOGU) | $ 510 | 6/20 | $ 890 | 6/27 | $ 380 | 75% |
| 10 OCT 12.50 FIZ CALL (FIZJV) | $ 1,310 | 5/2 | $ 890 | 6/27 | $ (420) | -32% |
| 10 JUL 45.00 FTO PUT (FTOSI) | $ 1,860 | 6/26 | $ 3,290 | 6/27 | $ 1,430 | 77% |
| 8 JUL 130.00 FXI PUT (FAHSZ) | $ 4,170 | 6/19 | $ 4,710 | 6/27 | $ 540 | 13% |
| 40 JUL 129.00 FXI CALL (FAHGY) | $ 14,010 | 6/15 | $ 19,990 | 6/27 | $ 5,980 | 43% |
| 10 JUL 129.00 FXI CALL (FAHGY) | $ 4,010 | 6/15 | $ 4,990 | 6/29 | $ 980 | 24% |
| 20 JUL 25.00 GLW CALL (GLWGE) | $ 1,710 | 6/20 | $ 3,190 | 6/27 | $ 1,480 | 87% |
| 10 SEP 510.00 GOOG CALL (GOPIU) | $ 13,010 | 4/18 | $ 43,990 | 6/25 | $ 30,980 | 238% |
| 15 JUL 530.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGW) | $ 18,010 | 6/25 | $ 18,065 | 6/27 | $ 55 | 0% |
| 20 JUL 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGV) | $ 32,010 | 6/20 | $ 31,990 | 6/27 | $ (20) | 0% |
| 10 JAN 80.00 LVS PUT (LKNMP) | $ 2,060 | 2/2 | $ 10,490 | 6/25 | $ 8,430 | 409% |
| 10 JUL 75.00 LVS PUT (LVSSO) | $ 2,960 | 6/20 | $ 2,340 | 6/25 | $ (620) | -21% |
| 120 JUL 30.00 MSFT CALL (MSQGK) | $ 6,010 | 6/20 | $ 7,430 | 6/27 | $ 1,420 | 24% |
| 20 JUL 20.00 NFLX CALL (QNQGD) | $ 2,010 | 6/15 | $ 2,290 | 6/27 | $ 280 | 14% |
| 20 SEP 25.00 NFLX CALL (QNQIE) | $ 1,110 | 6/6 | $ 990 | 6/29 | $ (120) | -11% |
| 20 JUL 170.00 OIH PUT (OIHSZ) | $ 3,010 | 6/28 | $ 4,990 | 6/28 | $ 1,980 | 66% |
| 10 JUL 42.50 QCOM CALL (AAOGV) | $ 1,510 | 6/18 | $ 1,490 | 6/27 | $ (20) | -1% |
| 200 JUL 47.00 QQQQ PUT (QQQSU) | $ 13,410 | 6/22 | $ 11,990 | 6/25 | $ (1,420) | -11% |
| 200 JUN 47.00 QQQQ PUT (UQQRU) | $ 2,810 | 6/27 | $ – | 6/30 | $ (2,810) | -100% |
| 30 JUL 100.00 RIG PUT (RIGST) | $ 1,810 | 6/28 | $ 3,140 | 6/28 | $ 1,330 | 74% |
| 10 JUL 165.00 RIMM PUT (RFYSM) | $ 3,460 | 5/4 | $ 8,690 | 6/27 | $ 5,230 | 151% |
| 5 AUG 155.00 RIMM PUT (RFYTK) | $ 2,260 | 6/28 | $ 190 | 6/29 | $ (2,070) | -92% |
| 5 JUL 165.00 RIMM PUT (RFYSM) | $ 135 | 6/28 | $ 3,290 | 6/29 | $ 3,155 | 2337% |
| 5 JUL 165.00 RIMM CALL (RFYGM) | $ 14,010 | 6/28 | $ 3,740 | 6/29 | $ (10,270) | -73% |
| 5 AUG 175.00 RIMM CALL (RFYHO) | $ 2,760 | 6/28 | $ 13,990 | 6/29 | $ 11,230 | 407% |
| 10 JUL 47.50 SNDK CALL (SWFGW) | $ 1,510 | 6/3 | $ 490 | 6/27 | $ (1,020) | -68% |
| 20 JUL 90.00 SU PUT (SUSR) | $ 5,210 | 5/17 | $ 9,190 | 6/26 | $ 3,980 | 76% |
| 10 JUL 40.00 T CALL (TGH) | $ 510 | 6/20 | $ 490 | 6/26 | $ (20) | -4% |
| 40 JUL 40.00 T CALL (TGH) | $ 2,410 | 6/22 | $ 5,790 | 6/29 | $ 3,380 | 140% |
| 4 JUL 62.50 TSO PUT (TSOSU) | $ 1,770 | 6/20 | $ 1,270 | 6/26 | $ (500) | -28% |
| 15 JUL 62.50 TSO PUT (TSOSU) | $ 1,135 | 5/17 | $ 9,440 | 6/27 | $ 8,305 | 732% |
| 20 JUL 55.00 TSO PUT (TSOSK) | $ 2,010 | 6/28 | $ 2,799 | 6/28 | $ 789 | 39% |
| 20 JUL 37.50 TXN CALL (TXNGU) | $ 1,610 | 6/15 | $ 1,790 | 6/27 | $ 180 | 11% |
| 50 JUL 75.00 VLO CALL (ZPYGO) | $ 5,010 | 6/27 | $ 7,490 | 6/27 | $ 2,480 | 50% |
| 10 JUL 75.00 VLO PUT (ZPYSO) | $ 2,010 | 6/28 | $ 2,490 | 6/28 | $ 480 | 24% |
| 10 JUL 60.00 WFR CALL (WFRGL) | $ 1,510 | 6/7 | $ 2,600 | 6/27 | $ 1,090 | 72% |
| 10 JUL 60.00 WFR CALL (WFRGL) | $ 1,510 | 6/1 | $ 4,390 | 6/27 | $ 2,880 | 191% |
| 10 JUL 60.00 WFR CALL (WFRGL) | $ 1,510 | 6/20 | $ 1,790 | 6/27 | $ 280 | 19% |
| 5 JUL 95.00 WYNN CALL (UWYGS) | $ 360 | 6/18 | $ 1,940 | 6/26 | $ 1,580 | 439% |
| 20 JUL 69.00 XLE PUT (XBTSQ) | $ 2,470 | 6/25 | $ 4,090 | 6/26 | $ 1,620 | 66% |
| 50 JUL 80.00 XOM PUT (XOMSP) | $ 260 | 6/21 | $ 4,240 | 6/25 | $ 3,980 | 1531% |
| 80 JUL 80.00 XOM PUT (XOMSP) | $ 5,210 | 6/25 | $ 8,390 | 6/26 | $ 3,180 | 61% |
| 100 JUL 85.00 XOM CALL (XOMGQ) | $ 6,510 | 6/27 | $ 10,990 | 6/27 | $ 4,480 | 69% |
| 100 JUL 85.00 XOM PUT (XOMSQ) | $ 21,510 | 6/27 | $ 24,990 | 6/28 | $ 3,480 | 16% |
| 100 JUL 85.00 XOM PUT (XOMSQ) | $ 15,810 | 6/29 | $ 24,990 | 6/29 | $ 9,180 | 58% |
