AAPL – now that’s much better! Stopped out of all my $125 callers in a nice orderly fashion but I’ll resel them, or at least the $130s when this thing runs out of gas.
T – I have long-term faith but I have the Jan $40s as anything can happen in the short run but I’m not selling against them either. July $40 puts are just .28 if you want short-term protection.
OIH – I hit the button on the $180 puts but that’s my obsession…. As long as RIG goes back to $107 I’m a very happy camper. I think oil will hold up until Thursday inventory at least and I’m not too keen on taking them naked into the weekend but I’ve decided it’s a manageable risk for me (as this is 10% of my postions and I’m 80% in cash so risk is 2% of my total) but it still makes me uncomfortable. There will be all the time in the world to ride these guys down and my overall play is that I’m establishing small positions with the full intention of doubling down and rolling several times until I have, for example, 100 RIG Sept $120 puts for $3.40 which I will be about 40% in the hole on. Then, when the final hurricane of the season misses the gulf, I will ride these suckers down about 25% for a series of triples. Hopefully that will work out but I will go from 2% to 10% of my virtual portfolio, as I was this fall when I came very close to quitting before XOM finally pulled back 10% in late August. I vow this year to do more rolling and less doubling as that is what was straining me last year.
TM – yes a rising Yen would hurt TM but that would presume the dollar recovered, HA!
AAPL – when in doubt, sell half (the $130s against). This should be it ($126) for today but after weekend of people going “I can’t believe you didn’t get one of these,” it is possible that even the most die-hard Apple basher may lose his nerve and, if not buy, then certainly stop shorting this stock.
HAS $32.50s for .53 are a fun gamble on the Transformers movie this weekend. I don’t think investors have a handle on the potential box office here. If they go over $60M this weekend (Ratatouille did $46 last weekend) they could be on their way to over $200M but, more importantly, thats 10M customers for HAS this Christmas. XXX
DNDN Aug $7.50 calls coming in for .80 (.40 premium) are too interesting to turn down. In cases like this I buy a lot and put a sell in at $1.05 right away on 1/2 so I can reduce my basis on a spike. These were .30 just last week so I’m also prepared to DD to get a .55 basis and I will be looking to sell the current $7.50s, now .57 on downward momentum.
AAPL – I am never a fan of entering on an up day but that’s the exact attitued that kept me out of Apple from $45 to $85 last year. I have the Oct $115 (10), soon to be rolling out and the Oct $125s (30) naked and yesterday I bought 40 $140s as a pre-roll and sold the $120s against them for $4.75 and promply got burned this morning and had to buy them back for $5.75 but I’m not too upset about that. My $140s went from $4.70 to $6 and I still like them, not a stiff increase on a $5 up day. I will sell the $125s against them, now $4.45 as I am protecting my naked calls as well and, obviously, my day worked out very well even with Apple jumping up on me. The $120s are up to $7.85 but even if they had gapped up to that level, I’d only be out $1.50 per share on the grand total and my $140s gained $1.70, my $115s gained $3.30 and my $125s gained $2.50. Had it gone the other way, I still had 40 more calls I could have sold anytime.
