T trading very illogically as they make more money per IPhone than Apple does. Over 2 years T gets a minimum of $720 a year ($60 month) on a service plan that costs them perhaps $360 incrimentally to service. 20M subscribers for them = $1.2Bn a month in revenues and the whole company currently takes in less than $10Bn a month with about $1Bn in monthly profits. I’m upping my long T positions. XXX
SU is actually behind the rest of the oil patch in 1 year gains so the Aug $95 calls, now $2.17 make a nice cover as you can sell the July $90s, now $2.53 against them on a downturn. XXX
VLO is alos an upside mo play with the $75s at $1.85 (and flying) but it may reverse quickly at inventory.
OIH – I’ve had great luck selling the $180 calls, now $3.80 and I’ll be looking to do so against my Aug $180s if inventory disappoints.
XOM and CVX are also way overpriced here and both make attractive mo plays to the downside with XOM Aug $85 puts at $2.17 and CVX Aug $85 puts at $1.80. I also like the XOM July $75 puts at $1 if oil turns down but I’m already loaded with puts.
The last thing to break down should be the XLE $71 puts, now $1.12 so they could be fun if the sector turns down and they also make a good upside play with the $70s at $1.95 carrying a .85 premium.
We only want to do this if we get a big surprise. I think they are expecting a 500Kb draw in crude and a small build in gasoline and distillates so those are ultra-low expectations. The wildcard is whether one of those ships parked in the Gulf decided to sell into the initial excitement, which could have dumped a couple of million extra barrels of supply on the market.
AAPL – I sold 1/2 $130 calls and that’s good for me as I will be surprised if they really break out over that ahead of the weekend. They need news to take off and who knows what Barrons will say but, like I said on Tuesday, this is more about running out of shorts than getting more buyers. They should estabish a new floor above $125 and that will clear them for a run over $140 but it will take upgrades (who is left to upgrade them?) earnings or some confirmed big sales numbers to get them to the next level. Oh – maybe a split announcement – they can go 3:1 back to $50 at this point.
T – I like the Jan ‘09 $45s for $3.40 as long as you have the margin to sell Aug $42.50s against them. The Augs are currently .65 and it would be great to get a buck for them as your first hedge but not so horrible to take .50 if the stock breaks down. XXX
DNDN – I’ve been increasing my postions and I would think lots of fund mangers are willing to take a chance on this going back to $15 within 12 months. The fear is of missing the bus more than of getting burned on the downside.
HAS needs a good weekend and some press coverage. Breaking a Tuesday record is good but it’s just a holiday timing thing – now we need to see some legs.
T – they haven’t graduated to LTP yet. I have Oct $42.50s, even at $1.30 and Jan ‘09 $40s, up to $5.40 from $3.50 so the $42.50s are a pre-roll allowing me to agressively sell shorter calls.
CVX at ATH. PBR ATH. BHP ATH. Dow picking up steam but Nasdaq slipping.
Selling GOOG $540s here at $13.25 with stops at $15. XXX
GOOG – changed my mind, asking $14.
BG finally breaking down and I am DD on the Aug $75 puts at .75 XXX
F collapsing, GM pretending they are a viable company.
ECB said more hikes to come, despite the pause – more pressure
Oil disaster! Just got off the radio shorting VLO, XLE, SU possibly PTR Aug $150 puts if we get a real downturn in the US markets. So far oil is holding up well.
AAPL and GOOG holding up the Qs – QQQQ $49 puts for .89 are a cheap way to protect those plays from a breakdown in tech.
Solar stocks selling off and now WFR an CY sell off with that group which panics the chip sector…
Things aree turning ugly, going to sell more Apple $130s, now $4.25, stop at $5 (very happily).
Don’t forget we’re heading into a weekend so very tight stops on at least half the oil puts. Watch the $71 mark, which they are back above, I expect XLE to bounce off $70 at least and VLO $74.50 would be our first sign of concern. If we can stay below there through lunch, we could be in for a downside afternoon.
SIRI – gotta take .15 for selling July $3s on half my leaps if I can get it. XXX
WOW – DAX closed down 88, FTSC down 37, CAC down 38 all went further down into the close. Gotta take those PTR pus and have to think about selling some FXI $133s, now $3.70 as they have to go to $136.70 for me to have to give him his money back. XXX
USO green, someone thinks they are going to pump oil back up this afternoon.
XOM – that’s why I pay up for close to the money puts, you need a massive move to get the $5 out of the money puts and calls going.
FWLT – blow off top I think. I’m selling $110 calls for $5.30, it’s half premium with 11 trading days to go so they lose .25 a day and I’m betting I don’t have to give them a penny back. XXX
CHAP – I’ll like it if it retest $72 well and maybe as a mo play over $75. If NUE or X or MT break up then this would be my top choice to follow. Whole sector up on takeover specualtion that should have some legs. SCHN has low expectations so could be a good catalyst but I don’t see CHAP pulling a major beat as expectations are for a 15% gain. Last Q (3/21) they “only” had a 5% beat but that was enough to take them from $45 to $65 in 30 days. Options are very pumped up ahead of earnings but maybe the Oct $75s for $5.30 and selling the Aug $75s, now $3.60, hopefully for better than $4. XXX
FWLT – that was a naked sell, not for everyone.
QQQQ – $49 puts are now .93 and will be very nice if GOOG falls below $540 and Apple falls below $130. XXX
VLO popping up, that may be it for oil puts if they sustain it above $74.50. XXX
GSK $10KP – taking out GSK $50 caller at $2.35 is an good idea IF they break $52. We can always sell the Augs later but it’s a lucky escape for us near even. I’m holding the Novembers but if it can’t get over $52, especially on a market move up then I think I’d rather keep the protection for the weekend.
OIH – $181 to $177 and a bounce to $178 is not “coming back,” it’s just a bounce. VLO is not being very impressive at $74.60 and may cross back down soon. SLB took the best bounce but still looks like a bounce as it treats the next dollar amount ($88) as significant investment. HAL still leading down, GSF not looking too healthy, DO turning lower, RIG turning back down and longer BBands on the whole group turning south so it will take a little more than this to chase me out.
I’m leaving soon and I’ve been agonizing over these charts but, as a group I think I’ll chance it for the hour or so I have to go out.
GOOG – I hope it’s not a July $550! The play we made was Sept $550/July $530 or $540s or whatever it is currently. I would, at this point, roll a $530 caller to $540 and eat the $6 as it still offers me good downside protection on a longer call but, in my particular case where I sold the $540s this morning and went out to find it $1.70 over my mark. I’m going to wait it out a bit and see if we get a pullback now as the momentum doesn’t seem that strong and, if it is, I have Septembers which are going to be in the money soon so I have nothing to cry about.
AAPL – you never have to wait for a weekend to ask something like that but it’s much better if you ask after the close when I have time to take a good look. No way would I tie up $34 on the Jan ‘09 $120s and moving to the $130s gives you a $7 down/$10 up advantage anyway so no brainer there. The $10 you take off the table covers your margin for selling the July $135s for $3 but, if you are far ahead, I’d rather use the $130s as a stop to the downside, selling them for no less than $4 if things go the other way. If they get wiped out you can always roll yourself down to the $120s for less than $5 which is a profit against the $5 you just took off the table to roll above it.
GSK – I took the Nov $52s for $2.75 and sold the Jul $50s on 6/3, after the drop, fully expecting the stock to hold flat through expiration and gaining me some premium. My Nov calls have held flat and I can roll this guy to the Aug $50s for $3.05, which is a $1 premium or to the $52.50s for $1.60 which is 100% premium AND .50 out of position AND pays for 58% of the cost of my longer call with Sept and Oct left to sell. On the whole, this position is doing exactly what I wanted, earning me money with no downside risk so I’m in no hurry to change that just because it bounced off pathetic for the 12th time.
PCLN Oct $75s are $3.40 and you can sell the July $70s, now $1.77 against them if they have trouble handling $70. XXX
BBY – mine are naked but I only have 10. I’m going to be selling the Aug $47.50s myself soon, this is as much risk as I can take after all the heartache on this one. In your case you’re out $1.60 and, if the money is tight then that’s that. The advantage of the Aug is you get .30 more premium (theoretically) over 2 months and a little more flexibility but that’s not worth hurting your cash flow for. The actual wisest move is to roll your caller to the $47.50s right now and pick up the .50 premium but that’s the rich guy’s play as it would cost you $2, short-term to make .50. You could also move to 2X the Sept $50s at $1.42 and sell 2x the July $47.50s for .97, which would cost you $1 to pick up .50 in premium and that’s an easy roll to Aug, which will give you another .50 at least, even if it keeps going wrong on you
T – That was people getting out, not in! I’m liking those $40s now with just .12 in premium but very strange selll-off in T the past couple of days.
