SIRI – no, I’m frozen into a roll.
Let’s make sure the S&P breaks 1,555 or it is time to roll up our DIA puts back to the Aug $140 puts. If the Nasdaq can’t hold 2,710 that will be a concern too but I don’t like the Q puts as the Nas could really pop with GOOG/AAPL.
As usual the XLE’s are pokey so we can play the $75s to either side if we get a strong signal from XOM/COP/CVX. VLO tanking and TSO may follow so the Aug $55 puts at $2.30 are a nice downside play. XXX – but only if you need a downside play!
I looked at the upside and, other than XLE, I can’t get behind them – even with oil up here. OII would be the best of the bunch as they are consolidating at $55 and the Oct $55s are $4.85 and can be offset by the Aug $55s, now $3.05 on a downturn. XXX
XOM – no I think I am screwed, I think that was stupid and my premise broke long before the close and I should have taken my lumps and gotten out with half. I’ve taken up a heavy position in the Aug $90 puts to start a proper following roll on them but, for the most part, I simply wasted a lot of money.
UNH – they are still paying $2.33 for the Aug $50s so we may as well take it as damage control and hope they stabilize (against leaps of course).
HOC giving a nice entry on Aug $75 puts at $2.30 XXX these will be great if the gas build is in the high 80s or better.
Oh, if oil goes down they will take the S&P with them so don’t get too excited if XOM does start to tank until you cover the rest.
OIH – I took the $2 of course for selling the $180 calls, stop at $2.50 since I won’t be around to watch it.
WHR – I liked them in the fall at $85, hard for me to get behind them at $115 but I like them long term and I’d rather buy the Sept $120s for $4.25 and sell the July $115s for $3.20 take the Jan ‘09 $120s for $16.95 and sell the same as I’d be happy to roll those down if they get a sell off. XXX
Damn that S&P is vexing me! I’m tempted to stay bullish and not throw more money into my cover puts as I’m out the door in a few minutes but I don’t like the way they fell more and recovered less than the Dow and the Nasdaq. Also, not to be a wet blanket but the broad NYSE and Russell are also dragging a bit so we may be putting together a multinational only rally with money getting sucked out of pure US corporations.
CLF – more to the point I hate to give up the insurance, especailly by paying them .60 (still 30%) in premium to give up my protection. I imagine you are gaining pretty much penny for penny with them at this point so it depends how ahead you are but you can always drop yourself back to the Oct $95s, now $3.65 and sell the Aug $90s, now $3.00 ahead of earnings if you don’t want to be naked.
WFR – with weak SOX, yes. As Opt says, it’s always great to scalp those last minute July premiums!
BBD – you make many excellent picks, just because I don’t play them myself doesn’t mean I don’t believe but, as you can see, I’m in more of a cutting back mode and have a pretty good balance so it’s hard for me to jump out into new sectors where I’m not balanced as I still have issues with this rally in general.
X getting whacked on news of possible buyout of Stelco, seems like an excuse to me.
Oh well, must go – someone please shoot XOM for me while I’m gone. Watch that S&P for a real signal but gold at $675+ means our buying power is going down and down and down so we’d better have a commodity like real estate (oh no, not real estate!), or mortgage backed securities (no, scratch that one too) or bonds (nope, low interest, dollar dropping) or commodities (already had a huge run) or perhaps stocks!
65 Bcf? No wonder XOM murdered me! Why is COP not loving this? Thank goodness for TSO and OII or I’d be really sad about XOM – killing all 3 if I can get out even as a group, will rethink this sector over the weekend. Very nice set of calls at 10:32 Z!
SBUX – holy cow did that take forever!
XHB – it’s a logical put but not a logical sector so I stay out.
TASR – Holy Cow!!! Good call on TASR this morning Ramana – you saved me a bundle as I took out some of my callers but I’m going back to 1/2 sold Aug $17.50s at $1.77 (10% – come on!). XXX
C – It’s an earnings gamble but they are pushing hard internationally and I don’t believe they have too many loan issues. China’s account growth, even if they are capturing a very small % of it should be great but they have been in China since before it was hip so I’m looking for an upside surprise but any naked call is a 50/50 gamble at earnings.
X – I took the profits and ran on that one as it broke back below 20% yesterday and there was nothing good to sell against it. If you have the Aug $115s (and I will myself now) you can roll back to the Oct $115s at $5.85 (+3) and sell the Aug $110s at $4.40 (+1.40) which gives you 3 more months at the same position and the $110 caller more than covers your losses to date. Earnings are on the 24th so you may want to go with a 3/4 cover if you are still bullish (as opposed to just trying to get your money back).
SBUX – thank goodness for that gentle stop out yesterday, promped me to dd at the time too as I was so far behind I thought it couldn’t get worse – 1/2 back out ahead of the game now. XXX
SBUX – 10% in 2 days is giving you a great volatility boost in your options. If it “slows” down to 1% a day you will actually get a little less money so maybe think more of rolling out further and higher (value) as the $2.50 incriments make it easy to do here. I’m taking a new posiiton on the Oct $30s at .93 with an eye towards selling the Aug $30s at .47. This is a pre-roll to my existing positions and now I can set tight stops on them to maximize those profits and my Octobers are reasonably well protected for a short dip. XXX
Paired trade – isn’t it amazing that we can both be right? I LOVE the market!
MSFT – thanks! I am actually happier about getting back to near even on the $10KP than I am about making whatever ridiculous number the STP is up to! I’m really hoping that this is, to some extent, a lesson in patience to $10KP people as we made up a 40% loss by being patient and NOT trading.
CLF – I still have 20 Aug $90s but I’m not going to chase them, they are down 20% but we may be pinning $85 so I’ll give them to next week.
Buy progs – well if you believe in the PPT then you have to imagine they would use the money at the time it would have the most effect and anyone in showbiz knows you always want to close with a big finish.
Welcome Mar! I think CAT should hit numbers but a miss would take a lot out of them. I took out my $85 caller and decided to go naked but that’s on Jan ‘10 $90s so even a big miss will hardly move my calls, which are just a medium entry position (10) so I’d be happy to roll lower and DD as I’m in this for the long haul.
OIH – I’m giving up. As soon as someone has a miss I’ll be back in on the short side but first someone has to show me the money (or lack thereof, as the case may be).
IMB – I’m starting to believe that guy lied to us!
SBUX – if you can get half your +60 day position paid for, yes. For trdsfr – well you are a little bit ahead and the guy will pay you 25% of your position for 30 days and the stock has to gain 8% before you owe him a nickel (but that should put you up to around $2.60). Sounds smarter than running around naked with a one way bet to me!
GILD – I’d go with the Nov $42.50s, now $2.20 you can sell the July $40s for a .60 premium whenever it tops out and maybe get lucky on a stomping tomorrow. On the put side, the Aug $40 puts are now $1.07 and I’d trail stop that or sell the Jul $40 puts against them for .57 as that’s just silly not to take as you’d be covered for $1 of pure premium on either side of $40 and they both get nothing in 7 trading hours. XXX
SBUX – LOL, I knew that! I’m getting good at this game… Well you don’t take out your caller the day before expiration unless it really bangs through $28 as you’ll get +$1.30 for the roll pretty much no matter what. You are behind. You will be lucky to get even. Selling the $30s will not get you even but selling $1 of premium on the $27.50s will, even if the stock drops 5-10%. If you are really bullish, perhaps sell half $30s at .40 and half $27.50s at $1.30 for a blended .85, reasonable protection at least with $3 of upside on half.
GOOG/AAPL/MSFT – I’m pretty long on all 3 but over 50% hedged.
GOOG $510 joke – absolutely but Europe gets a hold of them first. I wouldn’t put much stock in 4M after hours shares trading. This is an overreaction but we’ll see what it leads to. $510 is 50 dma support so that will be the critical line but my opening bid will be to buy $10 out of the moneys any time I think it may turn. If they start at $1, I’ll buy 5, then 5 on the other side and try to strangle it, hoping for a breakout one way or the other so I’ll pocket a nice gain.
GOOG – I guess we can talk about it now but here’s my opening bet. Nothing! There will still be a premium in the morning and it will evaporate very quickly. At the point where I can get puts and calls that are no more than $15 out of the money for $1 I will become interested and one THEORETICAL way to do this is like this.
Stock heads from $520 at the open to $530 and starts to lose a little steam. I try to buy 5 $520 puts for $1 AND 20 $550 calls for .25, just in case it keeps flying (doubtful). This also gives me a margin stop to sell the $540s or $530s for $5 on the way back down. If the stock does indeed stop there and turn back I buy 20 $510 puts for .25 and buy 5 $540 calls for $1. If it flatlines here (between $525 and $535) I am pretty much out $2K but if it goes $10 in either direction off $530 before 2pm, I should make enough on whichever side is right to cover the rest. Of course, if it magically takes off $30 in either direction, I make $20K and this did happen in the fall and one other time (I think their 3rd report) so, as a percentage play, it’s working out in my favor. Of course I adjust and try to narrow the gap but we’ll just have to play it by ear.
MCD (EG question) – This goes for any in the money caller. Don’t let your callers expire in the money, you will be forced to deliver hundreds (thousands) of shares to them on (check with your broker for rules and actual day) Monday-Weds for the strike price, regardless of what happens next week. In GOOG’s case, you would be laughing your ass off but not so funny if it was SNDK – it’s just not worth the chance and I will clean up everyone I can for a dime or a nickel unless I am 90% certain they will expire worthless OR if .10 is a large % of my gain (like the SIRI $3s I sold) in which case I aim to time it as best I can.
APPL premium collapse. Optrader is right but I just look at the difference in price between the (in Apple’s case) Oct and Jan (for example) $140s, which is $5 so I assume the true premium of the Aug $140 should be $1.70 (now $8.35) after earnings. Of course, if things are going your way they will hold the premium for a while but, if they go against you, it will go down rather fast. Actually, looking at that mentally deranged premium there I’m going to go for the Oct $145s at $11.10 and sell the Aug $140s for $8.35 – that’s a spread I can live with. XXX
GOOG – after earnings play will be to scale in buys. If they are going to sell us Jan ‘09 $500s for $95 I’m pretty sure I can find a way to make a few bucks between now and then! $30 or less for Sept $500s would also be very nice as people seem to have absolutely no sense of perspective on this stock. They missed by .03 on a 58% increase in revenue and a 28% increase in earnings… that’s .03 out of $3.59 per share (excluding stock compensation). They have increased staff 74% since last year and paid $1.76Bn for YouTube and they missed by .03 – and that cost them $15Bn in market cap? Conclusion: Investors are idiots! Hopefully it’s just the after hours ones, although growth has “slowed” to 28%, even if that’s a trend and not a blip and you drop the p/e to 30 (now 47), it’s still a $600 stock next year.
GOOG Sept DD – I wouldn’t DD far out of the money. Consider picking very close to the money september calls and selling Julys if it looks toppy with a quick roll to Aug if your are wrong and your higher calls will serve as un upside buffer.
Hey Rein! Congrats on AAPL. After the Google debacle I’m leaning towards some Aug $130 puts at $3.55 as I’d rather now sell calls against all my longer calls as it would cap my gains if things go well. Better to give up $3.35 of my very nice gains on the Jan ’09s to protect the downside but I will be selling the ridiculous Aug $140s at $8.35 against my Oct $140s, which I bought for $4.70 (oh, and I also happen to own those ridiculous Aug $140s since $4.75 so, of course, I’m out of those).
