CROX – I don’t think yuou guys get the fact that we only spent .05 on this play so we have a ton of options. If we had the margin for it the proper move would be to take a couple of Septs off the table into the initial excitement (the naked play is gone already) then wait for the same thing that happened ot AMZN and BIDU to happen to our boy but, in the case of the $10KP the best move is to roll the Sept $52.50s to 2X $57.50s and roll the caller from the Aug $50s at $8 to the 2X the $55s at $4.35 XXX
IMB – missed your chance to get out even already! Maybe a flush on the way down… 8-(
In general – remember what I said yesterday about trading curbs leaving a lot of sell orders backed up at the brokerages. If we don’t get off to a good start then those orders will be reupped today so we let the DIA and Q calls die and don’t take the puts off the table until we break positive. Until we get back to 13,600 nothing we see will be more than a minor bounce.
CVX is going down on those earnings so what does that tell you?
This time I’m not going to miss shorting Google against 1/2 my longs, probably the $510s, possibly the $500s as a mo play down. XXX
Emergency White House “Economic Summit” will attempt to spin the GDP and the economy this morning so watch those puts in case we have to dump them.
Rolling logic – only the assumed margin restriction of a $10KP. If CROX takes off, that will be our next roll, rolling the caller up to 2x the $60 calls, which right now are $2.55 of pure premium and already outgaining the $55s.
VLO – great call Z! They are already turning off the downgrade. I grabbed the Aug $70s at $3.90 as it’s always good to have upside protection anyway. XXX (ACTUALLY IT WAS SEPTEMBER! SORRY***)
The pending summit is holding up the markets but I’m very, very glad to have worked into what is effectively a Dow strangle. If we start to take off I will DD on my QQQQ $49s, now .86
Totally ignore the BS price of oil, watch SU to see if crude is going up. They couldn’t possibly be in a better postion with record high oil and very low nat gas (they use it to power their process). If they can’t do well now the whole sector is doomed. CVX too, how can they not be positive?
SLB doing well. HAL also doing well so I will grab the $35s there at $2.15 as it’s a low premium mo play xxx
XOM – those Sept $95s are just .95 XXX
I know – oil calls – can you believe it?!?
1/2 out of puts, will DD on whichever layer we stop at that’s nearest the money. XXX
XOM current $90s are fairly priced at $1 too! XXX (this assumes you have puts).
QQQQ calls and 1/2 out of DIA puts! I had a progression of DIA puts I laid out earlier and now I’ve taken half of that off the table (the other half will now come off at another .25) and I will DD (or rebuy in full as the case may be) when upside momentum slows in the strike that is closest to the money at $2 in August and $3 in September to cover what I hope are gains to the plus side. At that time I put tight stops or half out of the calls.
This stuff is not easy and it doesn’t always work but at this point in the month (4 weeks to expiration) I don’t mind having a strangle on the indices. I heard nothing exciting from these guys so if that’s what the markets were looking for, we didn’t get it but my conspiracty theory de jour is that the PPT already gave the brokers $50Bn to toss into the markets today regardless of what they said to end the weekend with somthing like a recovery.
I’m still very skeptical and will be rebuying DIA $135s, even though they are $2.35 rather than the $134s if we turn red here. As I said earlier – I just don’t know and cash is by far the best way to go today as no fundamentals have changed (there goes SHLD again!) so this is all a matter of perception.
I’m watching XOM breaking below $87 as a significant issue if that happens but I really have to go with my gut here as I put myself in the seat of a shameless market manipulator and this would be my game plan. Why bother having that very unique summit if you’re not going to follow it up with a rallly. It would be a disaster to close the market down after the whole economic cabinet and the President try to reassure us…
AAPL calls – don’t sell too many. I was just thinking how glad I was that I’m mostly naked…
GS $200s are currently $5.40, which is a crazy amount but they might make a nice mo play if GS crosses $96.
I’m kind of drifting into just trying to stay even on puts and calls now, buying more calls on the way down and more puts on the way up so a 200 point move in either direction within a week will be a jackpot but this is very tough to call so I’m aiming for 80% cash going into the weekend. XXX
HB calls – sure because they are as likely to go up as down for no good reason (probably a BS merger between 2 regional biggies that will give them a whole year to fudge the books).
Ouch – real vote of no confidence for our economic team – all those pent up orders coming in fast.
Stopped out of oil calls, heading to more cash. If the market rallies now I will miss it as I’m going way more bearish including DIA $134 puts, now $2.38 XXX Stopping out of all to cash!!!
PTR did not get the drop I would have hoped for so I’ll be watching the FXI for signs to get out of there.
SUN getting beaten down.
C at a 52-week low!
Don’t forget how much BA and IBM are boosting the Dow since thier $100 price gives them significant leverage. MMM is another $90 Dow component having a big day which makes me very surprised they are letting XOM go as it’s usually an easy one to stir up.
BP, TOT, RDS.a all looking bad so Europeans are getting out of oil. Since they have all the money it’s going to be pretty darn hard for US investors to keep these things up by themselves. HES finally heading deep south. The market still can’t fight an energy sector sell-off and the brokers still have too much money in commodities so let’s keep an eye on HES, SU, SUN, and PTR (Buffett just cut back!).
I’m pre-rolling PTR to the $145puts at $3 in case the Buffett news catches on but it’s a small reduction and he’s way ahead so this is more about me taking a double off the table on the $150 puts. XXX
