XOM making a break for it, the Dow needs them above $93 to make real progress. AAPL failing in its comeback (very bad sign as it just got an upgrade). BIG WARNING – despite the “rally” my index puts are UP and my DIA calls are down – that indicates tremendous negative sentiment!!!
Shorting – I was looking to short the DIA but then I ran into that very strange option behavior. CME may make a fun mo play with the $550 puts at $9.50 XXX
AAPL – answer – a lot! This is a roll down play as an upside hedge against a bearish virtual portfolio. If we are going to recover Apple should be a leader. I already moved to the $140s and now the $135s are getting interesting at $10.05. It’s costing about $2 per roll to gain $5 in position but I can still get $6 for the Aug $130s if I decide it’s hopeless.
Go Google! Go Apple! Go markets!
NAK – I would hope for a pullback as a new entry, they’ve had a great run and it’s still a long time until they get production out of Alaska. That’s not in a current virtual portfolio, just my retirement account along with GE, OLED (not for long), EBAY, T, INTC and TASR. Those are essentially the stocks I expect to be up consistently for the next 25 years. I sell calls against the slow ones but usually 5% out of the money for roughly an 8% annual bonus to the movement of the stocks.
ISM was fine – exports were strong per my restaurant example this morning. And yes, Chris, there is a small shakedown operation going on but once we are under new management I think a lot of that will repair itself, assuming we can stay in business that long!
GRMN/MA/EVERYTHING – Rule #1 – I’m not even going to say it again!
WFR around $60 is a buy from me too! XXX
Inventory play – XOM can give back that $1.20 gain in 30 secs
Sorry, radio messed me up and I forgot to hit the post button on that XOM run but it was really too fast to do anything about.
I called XLE up on the radio and VLO as I think this is a bottom but we’re still looking weak so small scales only.
CELG – I wish! Actually I’m willing to DD if they hold $60, perhaps at $1.25 for the Sept $65s so I’ll put in an offer for them at that price, bringing the basis to $1.48 and I’ll stop out at $1.10 from there (half out at $1.50 if it goes up of course).
Punishment – this is just Wall Street following my instructions to get to cash, that means selling into strength and that’s a good sign as it means no one is panicking – YET!
UA – nice sell on that one, premiums way down already. The options only go to Jan so not too exciting but the simple play is the Jan $65s for $6.65, selling the current $65s for $1.25.
Builders are falling apart – FAF CRUSHED ahead of earnings tomorrow. FNF, LFG (who actually reported) also beyond bad – so now we are looking like a crisis! I’m going to sell the DIA Sept $138 puts into this downturn as they are not moving enough anymore and I will also get out of the Sept $135 puts and flip to Sept $130 puts at $3, which I REALLY hope do not do well! XXX
Accidental release – I’ll bet they just couldn’t wait to spring that on the market! The fact that oil co’s are selling off into this shows what utter BS this all is.
BZH – holy cow! I wonder how much of this (sector in general, Beezer actually does suck) is Cramer induced panic?
SBUX – BUYBUYBUY. I just wrote a whole article about it for the newsletter which hopefully will be up later but the short story is I’m taking the Jan ‘09 $25s, which unfortunately shot up to $5.75 (from $5.25) and the Jan ‘10 $30s if they go below $4.50. This is a sticking to my guns fundamental play on the company’s long range outlook but it could be a bumpy ride…. XXX
XOM is the leg holding up the XLE – that is very scary!
GM – wow, I think we have to make rule #4: ALWAYS short GM at $35! F just put out some scary July numbers, DCX too… waiting for GM.
C is on a crazy sale! I flipped my pathetic Aug $52.50s to a bear call on the $47.50s and I’m killing that now about even but I’m willing to throw $5K at the Jan ‘09 $55s at $2.60 and forget them for a while. XXX
