GSK Nov $52.50s seem safe in the $10KP but I will feel better selling 1/2 the position (5) of the Sept $50s at $2.25. XXX
For those of you who do want to play something, I can’t possibly endorse following Happy’s trades more! He has been amazing in picking out the very few strong winners in this impossible mess of a market and, now that he’s going private, he’s been putting in agonizing amounts of time combing the market for winners. That being said, I will caution all of you, Happy included, to take profits and run when they come.
TGT – as I expected, good numbers but no reward for the poor Sept caller. Our .80 spread is not changing so far but we can take a 25% profit an run in the near future or wait it out as our caller twists in the wind. I am hopeful that we get a recovery between now and October but you have to be willing to gut it out and possibly put whatever meager gains we end up with on the Sept calls into rolling down the Octobers to $60s as we get closer to expiration. I’m just standing pat for now.
AAPL – selling $130s at $5. Buying GOOG $510s at $10.40 with a $9 stop to protect my Apple sale. XXX
GOOG – out at $13, 30% is pretty good for an hours work and gives me more than enough cushion to be wrong about the Apple $130s I sold, now $5.45. It’s always important to remember WHY you entered a trade and I didn’t enter GOOG for it’s own sake, but to protect against APPL breaking up to $130. Now I can afford to watch it test $130 so I’m very happy. XXX
VLO broke. If oil breaks below $69 (.15 to go) I’ll sell those Septembers. XXX
VLO – LOL, if you don’t see a full candle on the 15-min chart confirming under $69 then I didn’t trigger it. I have to be careful how I phrase things with all you day-trader types. In general, I’m looking for a 2 candle move on the 10 min chart, so if I target $69 I want to see candle A finish below $69 followed by candle B fully forming below $69. For me, that is day trading – usually I wait to see a close or at least an hour’s trend before taking action unless it’s a mo play like Google earlier.
VLO – NOW we are getting the break below $69. Since VLO is shaping up a bit I’ll see it test $62.50 to the upside first, also that gives the oil pumpers about 30 mins to pull a BS rally out of the hat. I don’t mind not getting an optimal sell on a cover as my main premise is that I’m looking for an inventory pump tomorrow.
OSTK – speaking of idiotic stocsk, is RIMM really at $82.63 now? That’s a $6Bn increase in value since yesterday – 3x PALM’s entire market cap! Let’s see 3 x $82.63 is $247.69 – I sure hope Happy still has some! For some reason I can’t determine my Jan ‘09 $300s are now Jan ‘09 $86.625s at $20 each, that’s a 100% gain from yesterday and I’m going to try to sell them if my broker lets me as this is now stupid amounts of money to make on one trade. I’m sure it will be reversed later but you can’t blame a guy for trying…
SNCR – one trick pony but it’s a good trick. It’s very strange because Forbes wrote them up on 8/2 and they tanked but the IPhone activation system went very well and saves T a fortune which means their model could gather a lot of steam meaning they are ridiculously undervalued even as a 50% grower. Dec $40s are $3.17 and you can sell Sept $35s when/if they peak out as a downside mo play.
VLO – check out the 12:20 pattern on them for the last 3 days (10 min chart)… If that repeats then we are going to get a $1 gain into the close starting in about 5 minutes. That makes the $62.50s at $3 a good mo play, looking for $3.60, out at $2.80!
Apple Jan $200s – wow, whatever RIMM buyers are smoking must be giving you a contact high! What is Apple going to say or do to justify an $80Bn gain in market cap over the next 4 months when it took them 20 years to get to $120Bn? I know that there are 20 examples of companies (like RIMM) where that kind of logic seems quaint and old-fashioned but I’m only 44 for Pete’s sake! I feel like me, Buffett and Herb Greenberg are the only people left on the planet that look at a balance sheet…
If you want to play Apple (which is one of my few reamianing full positions) take the ‘09 $130s for $28.75 and sell some other nutbag the Sept $135s for $3.35. That’s a 10% one-month return and the least of your problems is the stock going to $140. If it drops down, you can flip the caller to the $130s and pick up another $2 in premium and so on and every time you score $5 in premium you can roll yourself down $10 to stay tight to the strike.
