Oil – will have several soon but XOM Oct $85 puts of course!
GS – will be glad to get out of those puts. Let stops be your guide today, we could go anywhere and the next two days is a Jewish holiday which takes about 1/3 of the brokers out of the loop in NY.
IBM – today I am glad I have them. Only if the market takkes off do I want to let go of my insurance right now, they still have a lot of premium to give me but I’ll be watching that $117 line closely and, if in doubt, I will buy back half…
COP/BTU – unless they top out before 10:30, I’d rather make mo plays AFTER inventory (assuming net draw is less than 2Mb, otherwise maybe hope for even more of a run).
Nice Apple-led Nas move, if GOOG wakes up we could have a party.
CY – as with IBM, I’m not willing to give up insurance unless we hold 13,250 for the day. I haven’t even rolled my AAPL $130s yet and those are a train wreck compared to the IBMs…
BSX – same answer, I don’t pay to leave myself uninsured when I don’t like the big picture fundies.
SHLD – out of shorter calls but still happy with my 2010 $140s at $30
Good time to cover AMGN as the $55s are $1.10, they were .30 yesterday. XXX
Chasing LVS up to the Oct $105 puts as they make a new ATH.
Oil puts, other than mo plays, only picking up Octobers here.
Teeing up oil puts (still hoping for cheaper prices)
SUVR – SU Oct $90 puts, now $2.80
COPVP – COP Oct $80 puts, now $1.42
XOMVQ – XOM Oct $85 puts, now $1.92
XBTVT – XLE Oct $72 puts, now $2.65
As always, I sell OIH $185 calls naked for $5 or better.
I’ll be confirming these if we get a good oil report live on MN1 but be mindful that they may try to break $80 on any excuse and we may have to bide our time before entering these plays.
XTO $60 puts as a mo play XXX (risky) $1.30
BIDU topping out – spread of Oct $220 puts at $11.70 and $230 puts at $8.25 is interesting play. Taking Oct puts first and will sell Septs at $231.50 but I think they are out of gas here and I can do better.
Now no one will sell me more SHLDs at $30…
Huge crude draw – no put plays for now!
Posted September 12, 2007 at 10:39 am Permalink (Edit)
RMBS Oct $17.50s at $1.40 as mo play!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118964387534025859.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
MN1 says RMBS getting bought for $22, also says CRM being bought for $57 by GOOG, which I find hard to believe but action on RMBS looks real – we’ll see how it pans out.
Oil sector taking a nice run and it will be a real leap of faith to buy into those October puts but this is what I was hoping for (sort of) and if they can’t break $79 on that news, it ain’t going to happen and I am fairly certain that they will be dumping as many barrels as possible into this news. The refiners are not a good indicator right now so lets keep a close eye on COP as aleading indicator and XOM as a lagger to confirm a turn off the top. COP will struggle with $85 but, over that I’d be worried where it will end.
If XOM doesn’t get some legs and break $88 I don’t see the Dow sustaining green today, market internals are choppy despite energy rally and Financials are not stepping up either. If we are in rotation, it is likely to be a slow, painful one.
Putting money where mouth is with DIA $133 puts at $1.75, out at $1.50, looking for $2.25+ XXX
Added SU and XOM puts, very oddly weak reaction to huge draw in crude. XXX
LVS testing 5% here, WYNN on a tear as well. Yipee, $80 oil!!!
IBM – I am still fully covered and will leave it so below $117 (and that doesn’t mean a 10min spike!)
VLO Rule – to be clear, the rule is that if VLO does not agree 3/5 of with XOM, COP, XLE, SU, OIH – then do not trade either way. You are looking for the group to get into agreement and then, ideally, you go after the laggard of the group to catch up.
Very bad timing on my DIA puts, buy program seems to be kicking in but, so far, it’s running into a lot of sellers. If the sellers give up, we could get a big pop up.
SHLF the move to make if you have the ‘09 $20s is to buy the ‘09 15s at $2.98 and then aggressively sell the $15s once it recovers a bit using the $20s as a backstop.
Buy To Open 100 CQJIT CROX SEP 62.5 Call – Sell To Open 100 CQJIS CROX SEP 57.5 Call – $2.50 credit $2.50 risk. XXX for any, 5 in the $10KP
TSO back at high, funny, funny stock.
RMBS back at $1.30, I think the rumor has legs (JAVA will buy them) and they are nicely down anyway so I don’t mind having an October play. Current $15s can be sold as a downside mo play or .55 for the current $17.50s will cut the risk down but this is a go for it kind of play on the rumor.
Tried to get more DIA $133 puts at $1.45 but no sellers, could be a sign of the top (or we might be resting).
LVS – I’m up to the Oct $110 puts at $4.54 avg.
No broker participation in an energy rally. Whole banking sector just laying around and YHOO moving up, a sure sign that this rally is weird!
CROX – yes, it needs to stay below $60 to pay off, anything over that is money out of your pocket but it was a good way to play the top without too much risk if it bounces back as my calls should pretty much gain 50% of what my caller does so a $1 breakout would cost me about .50 on the spread or my 20% stop limit. Since my max risk is .50 (assuming I don’t get gapped on) and my max reward is $2.50 I like the play.
Trying to buy TSO $45 puts for .60 (low of day) as a mo play back to .80
Still have my order in for the DIA puts at $1.45.
CROX spread is up 10% already. Since my max gain is $2.50 I get half out with very tight stop past $1.25 which cuts my max gain to $1.87 but guarantees I can’t lose.
GOOG $525 is bullish.
$80 oil should affect PCLN and UAUA is still in denial. $45 puts are a good hedge on oil breaking up at $1.30, looking for $1.60 XXX
FXI is a great short sell up here. Selling the $155s for $2.80 naked, great play if you have the margins.
FWLT – fairly safe to take the Oct $140 puts at $18 ($1.50 premium) and sell the Sept $125 puts for $4.50 ($3 premium). Its a nice 10% quick return and then a month to ride it down.
Woops, suddenly everything that was BUYBUYBUY is SELLSELLSELL!
Adding WYNN Oct $125 puts at $3.60 that were $6.50 yesterday and $8.50 the day before. XXX
Oil at $79.40
There goes EXPD, PCLN to follow (good call collkid), maybe the Oct $80 puts at $3.10, was $6 on Weds! XXX
GS – I got out this morning as I wasn’t happy with the action. Need to watch the sector and short the XLF if any one gives a bad report because they act like lemmings. Also pays to short whoever holds up best after the first one gives bad news. BSC has huge CDO exposure, 1/3 of their earnings come from them.
I can’t imagine who is buyig stocks in general with oil at $80 while other parts of the economy are flashing recession signals – had to get a little more bearish today.
XOM – I now have 60 Oct $85 puts at $2.03 and have sold 30 Sept $90 puts at $2.80. I’ll leave the insurance on until tomorrow, if it goes down fast I can always roll them to 2x $85 puts, now .65 where the premium would more than make up for my losses (but cap my gains on the Octobers).
$79.81 – those greedy oil bastards are going for $80 today.
Dow notes:
If the economy is so good, why are AA, CAT, HPQ and WMT down today.
16 up Dows and 14 down. BA, DD, GE, JNJ, KO, MMM, MO, MSFT, UTX and XOM up more than 1/2%
AA, C, CAT, HPQ, IBM, MCD and MRK are down more than 1/2%. Hardly a rally.
That time I DD’d my DIA $133 puts at $1.55 as I missed it last time.
RIMM is past my breaking point here (the point where I must short them out of principle!)
They are just not as much fun anymore after the split but I have to take $2.38 for the $86.62s and I’ll spread them against the $93.38s at .47 just to avoid the margin issue. XXX
BTU – bought Oct $45 puts for $1.70 XXX
CHK – I did a DD on the Jan $37.50s and sold current $35s for .50 ahead of tomorrows inventory.
SNDK – that’s why, no matter how far ahead they get, I’m very hesitant to buy back a caller on that stock.
DIA $133 puts – I’ve got a ton now, there is no rationale to this rally – someone besides me is bound to notice.. Where is Herb Greenberg? (probably tied up in the basement they dumped Bill Poole in!)
covered FSLR with sept $100s at 4.30, good premium, will buy more October $110s if it heads up. XXX
VMW seems over.
Still happy to hold 13,300 but Nas is now disturbing as it can’t hold 2,600 on that AAPL/GOOG move
CROX – IF it turns up, you can roll to the $55 puts for .40 and turn this into a no-lose trade (but sacrificing .40 of the gain).
Staying short – I refuse to be long or even neutral with oil at $79.80 AND if oil breaks down, the energy sector will take the market with it for at least a short ride. If I’m wrong I will roll up and/or DD and I would have to be wrong 3 times in a row before I drink the Kool-aid and join this rally. China will announce tightening measures by next week and a fed ease will send the dollar to 76 and this is good for us how? We import semis and auto parts and oil and metal and clothing… how is another 10% drop in the dollar going to help us?
