Please note I’ve added several additional $10KP and $25KP plays from yesterday’s Dow post in case you’re following those virtual portfolios and that the Happy 100 HXL play is moving to the Jan $22.50s for +.25 XXX
DIA $140 puts are a great deal at $2.20! XXX as a cover play to start scaling in no matter how the day ends.
Rolling is simply trading positions. If you have an option-friendly broker, there should be a function in your account where you set up a simultaneous buy/sell for a specified spread. If not, you can call your broker and say “I’ld like to roll the HLX Dec $22.50s to the Jan $22.50s for .25, good until cancelled” and once they make a match, they charge you a quarter (and, hopefully a reasonable commission) and you have a new position without all that messy buying and selling.
Yes nu2- you roll for .25 debit, you don’t care what the price of either is when they match it.
RIMM holding $100! That’s about where they were a year ago, before the 3:1 split! Must sell the $100s here for $7.25! XXX
PFE – yep. I think they will have trouble at 25 in the very least.
Whole market about to have touble with new home sales down 8.3% AND median price down to $225K from $239K – that’s in a month!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Be careful not to start thinking here though as logic may go that this is a good thing because surely the Fed will have to lower rates further.
ICE $150 puts at $5.80 as a mo play with a $5.50 stop. XXXX
HXL – It doesn’t matter if you never fill it, it’s just a month and it won’t affect any sells we make so I wouldn’t worry about it.
That housing number came on top of a poor KBH report where they CEO said “no bottom in sight” and KBH is going down and down. Interersting to see who’s not going down right now like LVS, PCLN, MMM making ATH, MSFT marches on, SNDK rockin’, DD..
Bad if we stay this way as it looks like a very sharp S&P rejection at 1,530
RIMM – that’s not naked, I have the ‘09 $86 somethings.
DRYS making a move, I like the $90s for $4.10 as a mo play with a .50 t-stop. XXX
AAPL – it’s hard to balance being too far in the money with not having enough protection. We have to assume we could get hit with a $15 drop so we want to think about that as well as what happens if they go to $175 during this expiration period. The best move here is to double up both positions in the $150s, that throws him from $13 in the money to just $3 in the money and gives us reasonable coverage. Obviously it doesn’t look like Apple is going down and the markets recovered about 15 seconds after that awful hosing report. The Fed just dumped $38.8Bn of liquidity today, that makes the market pretty bullet-proof as long as you don’t look behind the curtain.
TSO – sucks to be right doesn’t it? If you have the Nov/Oct $1 spread you do nothing, it’s even and he will still expire with less value than you. If it gets worse we can do a double roll but you don’t do it now as all you would be doing is buying into the initial excitement twice. The roll will go to 2x the $45 puts when we can roll him at no cost (we can already roll ourselves at a profit!). Right now, he’s still got $1.50 in premium to work down and you have $2 in premium but, since you have a month on him, mathematically you should gain .35 on him by doing nothing, that’s a 35% gain off our $1 investment if you do nothing so running around screaming and throwing money at your caller may not be the best response here…
PG – there are 2 Jan $70s but I will ammend that to say take the PG-AN at $2.85, I didn’t see two when I put in that number but I don’t like to trade conditional contacts. XXX
PFE 10/5 check!
DRYS – making up for ICE so far. No reason to get out yet but I will sell half if we hit $89. XXX
ANF $80 puts at $2.28 as a mo play with a $2 stop XXX
SYX finally recovering from all those people who bought too many calls…
AA starting to make a move, FSLR going well. WYNN incredible.
AAPL move – yes but I’m going to wait until Monday probably.
IMCL right at a break point, if they fall below $41.50 for the day we may want to sell and get back in lower but I still like the position too much to sell against it. The $40s are $2.65 so we can be well-protected if we choose to be but they were $3.50 yesterday and that won’t be fun if it turns!
DRYS – very disappointed and not willing to go below $4.30 XXX
HXL – this is Tuesday’s high for them ($22.75) so no worries yet.
FXI going through the roof at $180.
It’s all about the S&P making 1,530.
FSLR going verical!
FSLR moved to 1.5x Dec/Oct $120 spread for $8 (was 20 with a $10 spread). XXX
VLO taking a hard turn down, doesn’t bode well for oil positions.
ECA and EOG did not like the gas report but CHK seems oblivious at the moment.
Turning $2K-$1M porfolio – I like the DIA Sept 30 $138 puts for .17, may as well get 20 for $340 (these are total gambles).
IMCL, HXL I’d wait until monday, who knows what the market is doing right now….
XOM just went to flush the stops, looks like it’s heading down. Watch energy carefully!
VLO still heading down XLE Sept $74 puts are .10, that’s good for 50 contracts in our gambling virtual portfolio!
VLO holding yesterday’s low for now ($67.50) big fireworks if it breaks down but will likely bounce to $68 before going lower. Oil is up a buck at $81 as the dollar stays week but still holding 78.5. Watch the SOX at 500 and, of course Nas 2,700 as the Dow can go down for many reasons and the S&P has very obvious resistance but those guys NEED these levels.
FCX with a big downturn despite rising copper.
PNRA seems to have found a bottom. I like the Feb $45s at $2.75 XXX
FSLR – I can find no reason not to take the Dec $120 calls for $16.45 and sell the Nov $130s for $9.25, costs you $7.20 to have a $10 + 1 month advantage. XXX
Lets watch XLE at $75 too, could be a good upside play on the Sept $75 calls at .43 (the puts are now .35) but VLO superweak with their bounce.
AAPL roll – yes now is a good time to roll some becasue the caller you are rolling to still has good premium. In an Jan/Oct $140 spread, I am contemplating rolling back to the Apr $150s and rolling the caller to the Nov $140s for net debit $2.50, which seems a lot better than the $13 of intrinsic value I owe him now.
An alternative to that is rolling him to 2X the Oct $150s at $8 (net credit .50) and either just doing a DD at Jan $150 (debit $11) OR Rolling the Jans to 2X Nov $150s for debit $1. Of the group, the double roll back is the least risky as you gain 2 months for minimal cost but it’s still a bullish play overall.
VLO still weak, TSO failing… XOM just doesn’t seem to remember that it was refining revenues that saved last quarter for them, that goes for all the majors. I know you would think surely investors can’t be that stupid and they must take these things into account but I say they don’t and they are. Read BP’s quarterly report, I’ll bet we start seeing those over here…
IRBT – I’m still trying to sell them 26/30 sold, they look strong but you’re getting paid for another 5% gain in the stock, that’s a no brainer for me when I’m already up 60% and want to protect my gains.
Strong demand for treasuries – 4.25% for $13Bn, huge buying interest probably based on fears the Fed will continue to lower rates but the demand is a surprising and good sign that foreigners (including China) are willing to support the Fed move.
That should goose the markets a bit, now we’ll see if refiners can recover..
FSLR – damn, I thought that was never going to stop going up!
BHI and other OIH components on the march.
Jumping back in GDX Jan $45s at $3.60, they were $4.50 a few days ago. Selling the current $45s, now $1.43 by the end of day UNLESS my Jans hit $4 in which case I’ll let the profit be my stop.. XXX
MA trying to catch up to WYNN…
MA $150s at $4 XXX
GOOG with a sharp turn down traffic surging on web sites, either a lot of buying or a lot of selling coming I think!
DRYS – don’t forget stops if you didn’t already! If they don’t hold $90 here I’m done.
AAPL roll – the concern here is that it never goes down but the reason I go to the $140s is the $145s don’t offer me enough downside protection. I don’t mind my caller having some intrinsic value, it means he loses more on the way down.
FSLR – took out $120 caller for $5.5, that was nice!
1,530 very bullish sign!
