SIRI – just the 25% from yesterday, if we hold up today I’m willing to cut back a bit more.
BIDU – ballistic!
XOM taking a nice dip, back to .85 on those $90 puts, let’s not be greedy as tomorrow is inventory day and all those extra barrels we ordered won’t show up for at least another week.
MTB flying, I offered $4.70 for the Nov $105s in the $25KP but I’m not chasing after it. XXX
Why is FXI going down off the gap?
Bought back FXI callers for $3 profit, rolling up to $185 puts for $2.75, a good trade for $7 in position!
Metals and oil will hold us down today even if we get other strength, let’s watch the Russell as they should be happy about all this.
OII still flying high, there’s one to play to the downside if the sector starts to break down. Nov $75 puts are $2.80 and I’ll offer $2.5 to get started on a position. NO FILL
FWLT looking to test $140 before the crash (I hope).
SHLD on a roll, JWN picking up buyers, BBBY, M – like I said this morning, the retail sector is looking cheap and it’s a strong internal sign if people are bargain shopping today.
Posted October 2, 2007 at 10:11 am Permalink (Edit)
IMCL – DD at $4.70 to reduce basis to $5.70, half back out at $5.70.
Wow, lots of selling going on now. DIA $139 puts are still just $1.10, can stop at $1 XXX
Advance/Decline shows this is a selective, not broad sell-off. There are lots of profits to be taken so that is no surprise.
XOM – .10 stop here as I’m just glad to be even on the $90 puts.
TASR – I’d take it off if you have no covers. That was a good top!
VIX – we did that yesterday but I’m out here, that’s a lot for one day!
RMBS flying.
DIA puts, that was a mo play, at this point it should be tightly stopped, markets are holding up well(ish) so far.
PNRA very cool – I love hitting those bottoms! Normal resistance at $43.25 from the 50 dma, no reason to worry unless we break below $42.75 where we cover with the Nov $45s at $1.60. XXX
XOM – I stopped out too early – oh well… I still have a ton of XLE calls I sold so I didn’t want to overbet after such a nice run (especailly catching up from a double double).
RIMM – pre earnings sell-off was to be expected (that’s why I sold the $100s). They are a great mo play now if the Nasdaq turns up (and if they hold $95) but I wouldn’t risk a naked call into earnings with those premiums.
DIA puts, when you’re up 13% in one day (4,745% for the year) on a volatile index put, it’s probably a good idea to take a little off the table by 15% and have a stop at a 10% gain. You can always buy it again, of buy the next level down or whatever – there are all sorts of amazing things you can do with cash…
GS – I have a Jan/Oct $220 spread, I’ve had no reason to change it and it’s still a $9 spread, which is pretty annoying.
SHLD totally breaking out now.
AAPL – nothing wrong with them, normal people take profits when a stock has run up 30% in a month. 
GRMN going tragic, we’ll see if they hold $100.
YRCW – no. Too many buyers spiked it up after my call. I’m moving on to the Apr $30s, 5 at $2.50 XXX
Sellers taking a break, still seeing mortgage cos with strength.
CAKE looking good, Jan $25s at $1.75, 5 for the $10KP, 10 for the $25KP XXX
Financials popping, watch BSC at $130!
As predicted, here comes BTK – IMCL will hopefully follow.
Here comes XOM I think, watch your puts and/or callers.
OIH group looking very weak, very strange. Great for our SLB puts!
XOM $95 calls – that’s pretty far away but not a bad cover if you have puts you don’t want to sell, they were $1.40 yesterday so it’s a nice risk/reward for 17 days.
Very likely XOM is just resting at the 2.5% rule and ready to make the next leg down from here, that would take them at least down to $90 if they break here, then I’d be more interested in the $90 calls for sure, just on a bounce. 2.5% rule means we can expect a 20% bounce back to $92, if they bounce there and look to fail again (probably in the next 45 mins) then a spread of the $95s and the $90 puts back at $1.10 would be a great play so taking a chance on some $95s now is a good idea. XXX
WFR on one of their sporadic tears, could get interesting if they break $63. Nov $65s are $3.40 and we can sell the Oct $65s on a turn. XXX
Today is a gift for repostioning more bullish. Able to buy out some callers a little lower than yesterday and choses new covers with care (although I still love the FXIs).
Don’t forget how much of a drag oil is on the indexes (15%) so this is a pretty good performance with commodities taking a dive (gold is down $20).
XOM heading off to that $92 test but looks like they will fail $75 first, just as significant. TSO looks like they think they’ve gone down enough for one week. Oil is right at $79, let’s see which way that breaks between now and 2:35.
GOOG $593! Almost time to roll again! At this point, I have to start adding some Nov $590 puts at $17.50, now $20.50 to see how the test of $600 goes. If it goes over, I can sell the current $590 puts for $10, not a bad spread but I would have to be pretty certain they’re breaking up. XXX
BIDU marches on. Makes sense China fund will want Google, those guys can certainly see the writing on the wall and they want to be able to censor it! The mistake in valuing Google is not realizing they are a media company and media generates over $1T in advertising annually. While they get their ass kicked by print, radio and TV, Google does control the ONLY growing segment. If they can maintain their market share, all they have to do is wait for the $985Bn of advertising that is not currently on the web to drift their way but YouTube shows that they are more proactive than that and I believe by 2010 you will hear people say “Did you see that show on Google?” They could grow thier global ad revenues to $50Bn a year (5x current revs) and that would only be 5% of global ad sales – hardly out of the question for a company that controls 67% of the web’s ad revenues.
Speaking of which, so now I have a Jan/Oct $570 spread which I will next roll to a Mar/Nov $590 spread as an even trade. That’s another month for free! XXX but no hurry as my caller still has $7 in premium.
XOM – that was a really weak-assed attempt at $92. $90 puts are $1.15, best was $1.30, may as well pick some up here and get 1/2 out at $1.30 or all out at $1.05. XXX
FSLR – I have several positions and I’m laddering up every $10. So I sell the Oct $125s against the Dec $120s and the Oct $115s against the Dec $110 and I then buy a round of Dec $130s on a run, up, sell $135s on the turn, sell my lowest calls (the $110s) and sell the $115 calls when the downward momentum stops. I think I started with the $90s and I make a couple of thousand each round take it off the table by buying cheaper calls for myself and one set I did a DD, so far the position’s up about $20K on an initial spread of $20K but I’m now holding $81K “worth” of calls against $34K in calls I’ve sold. I always try to tell people, as long as you have a 60+ day spread within $5, it is never a problem if your caller does well.
Lazy Condor play:
Buy BIDU $250 put, BDUVJ @ $1.45
Sell BIDU $270 put, BDUVW @ $3.50
Buy BIDU $340 call BPJJG @ $6.80
Sell BIDU $320 call BPJJC @ $12.10
You collect $7.35 and get paid between $262.65 and $327.05 with an outside risk of $12.65 and we can always adjust it if we have to.
That’s an XXX in complex spreads.
Google Condor:
$560 puts at $4.70, sell the $580 puts for $9.70
$640 calls for $3.70, sell the $620 calls for $7.80
That’s a $9.10 credit with a $10.90 max loss between $570.90 and $629 – a little scarier than BIDU but I’ll try a few.
Ford down 17%, Chrylser not in yet (expected down 5.3%), hardly a reason to rally.
Rolled LVS Jan/Oct $135 puts to Mar/Nov $140 puts (even)
XOM and XLE failing levels in tandem – let’s be super careful here if they break up.
Hey, we squeezed a dime out of those XOM calls already, not bad for a day’s work. 1/2 out for me with a stop at .65 for the rest (.10 trailing). XXX
CAKE – give it a chance to try $25 first.
AAPL calls, I’d wait since once you make a move you’re frozen and you still have plenty of premium.
BIDU – Selling $320 calls for $20.35, stop at $24 XXX for the truly insane!
XOM – I’m out for a big dime! Not worth the overnights which could go either way, save the cash to catch a mo play and don’t forget inventories at 10:30.
