Let’s wait on that farce call until we hold our levels but it looks pretty silly to me so far. We should certainly get an oil rally into the inventories which are predicted to have a drawdown as the barrels we ordered for October haven’t arrived yet (but oh boy is that going to be fun for the rest of the month!).
COP $85 calls are my most likely upside play, now$1.50, very nice to have if you already have some puts for protection but I’d rather pay a little more on the way up than try to guess a bottom this morning. XXX
Don’t forget that we pre-rolled JPM in the Dow portfo specifically so we could take proftis and have a free ride on the higher calls.
IMCL – for sure if you doubled down you should be selling 1/2 to reduce your basis.
ADP numbers signal more cuts not needed, poor Cramer is going to have to come up with another excuse to attack the Fed.
AMGN up. BTK index flying.
Happy 100 – raised HXL roll request from Dec to Jan $22.50 to .35 XXX Will roll and sell Oct $22.50s regardless if they can’t hold on to $22.50 today.
NYX – that’s one of the guys I left naked.
I’m not racing out of DIA puts, just putting .25 tstops on 1/2 but I want to be shown something before I go all bullish.
SHLD still going up. BTU on fire. CME could care less. GOOG hanging on. TOL up (now that’s silly!).
ISM services right in line, down a touch from last month and the ISM manufacturing number was a rally point on Monday, kind of funny if this isn’t taken well.
Stopped out of FWLT even.
XLE $75s getting interesting around $1 ahead of the inventories. If they hold $74 it’s worth taking a few ahead of the report with a .15 stop.. XXX
Feels a little bottomy here though.
XOM – I’d say there’s more upside than downside but the reality of earnings will hit them so if they have a good run I will short them again (boy did I get out too early!).
LVS – hate to say it but “only” 55% growth sounds like a buy to me. My Nov $140 putter jumped up $5 and I love the $6 spread between the March and Nov $140 puts. XXX
HXL filled on the way up – I wonder if I would have gotten it for .25 if I was more patient?
Holding 14,000, that’s going to be key, S&P 1,540 of course, Nas 2,725 but we really want to Russell to come to the rescue today. Oil is holding $80 (so you wonder what all the fuss is about in the energy patch and BTU is completely insane at $50 with nat gas continuing to slip but that’s a play for tomorrow’s build.
Oil rebounding. XLE $75s, COP $85s, XOM $90s as mo plays with tight stops (it’s all BS so keep that in mind!).
MTB – that was an easy fill yesterday, gone now. I almost always place day orders on entries and GTC’s on rolls. If something gets away from me it forces me to reevaluate the next day. We’ll see if they hold $106.
Hog is a financing play. People want them as long as they can afford them. Sticker price doesn’t matter, monthly payments do. If GM is selling their crap then HOG can too.
IBM – my $120 caller is hanging tough, not going to give him $1.65!
Oils putting in either a solid bottom or consolidating for a breakdown, hard to tell but based on inventory I’d say consolidating for a run up. We’ll see if XLE can retake $75 (where I will sell Oct calls again) and XOM back to $92, anything less is bad sign.
CROX flying again.
TRID is a good company, nice growth profile. Looks like John may have spiked it earlier. If you’re into stocks, you can buy it for $16.15 and sell the Nov $15s for $2.05 for a net entry of $14.10, getting back $15 in 50 days for a 6.4% return (46% annualized). Obviously you can wait to sell as long as it holds the $16.15 line, hoping it comes back to the open at $16.30 for a little bump on your sell. XXX
GM $37.50 short – it’s worked every time so far! They got an upgrade to neutral from BAC and BAC has millions of very clueless sheep who follow what has to be the worst stable of analysts assembled post 1999, perhaps ever… I got stopped out of my $35 short calls and they were $2.90 when I sold them so around $2.50 I would love to sell the $37.50s. If it turns back down I can always sell the $35s again at $3+ so XXX on that plan for you high-margin boys.
AAPL I would roll that trade to 2X the Jan $160s at $14.15 (+$2 per current contract) and roll the caller to 2X the Nov $160s at $8.85 ($3 credit per current contract) as that rips all of his premium out and gives you a higher coverage % (62.5) than you have now (56%). This is still a bullish play on Apple as you are giving up premium too but he is giving up $23, $14 of which you owe him anyway. There is no rush to make this play but he has no premium and is doing you no good right now.
SHLD – I’m riding that bargain bin baby! My Nov $130s are up over 100%, time to cover if they turn down. The play would be to sell the $145s for $3.50+ and use that money to roll to the Jan $140s, now $13. As a new play on SHLD I like the Jan $150s for $8.15, selling the current $145s if they have trouble with $142. XXX
Wow, I should just run a service where once a week I make the picks on Andrew’s show. I think that’s 4 straight weeks of winners! (pat, pat) COP is still laying around if you want to join the party and the $85 calls are $1.49, once they break $84.50 set your stop there, if they don’t break $84.50 on this run, get out, if they fall below $84, get out… XXX
Interest rates going up, probably deficit oriented, may kill the recovery so be careful. Forget oil calls if the market turns down here. XXX
IMCL – this is nowhere near our target. We don’t sell here other than the half we DD’d to reduce the basis (although, as my budget is high, I’m just letting mine ride but that’s not what you should do within the bounds of a $100K virtual portfolio because you may need that cash to save another positition).
RIMM you don’t have to miss numbers per se to fail to justify a 120% run for the year (200% since last Q3 report). I took out my $100 caller yesterday but I’m cashing out now ahead of earnings as there’s nothing they can offer me to protect my 832% gain. XXX
TASR – I have the Jan/Oct $15s in a $1.10 spread. I’m very far ahed on my Jans and not willing to give up the protection just yet.
FLEX – You have to play them as someone discovering their Zune involvement AND not assuming Zune will be a turkey. That would be the Jan $12.50s for .40, looking for .55 to get out. I wouldn’t pay a penny more for the trade but that’s an XXX in the $10KP for 10 and the $25KP for 20 as we could use a gamble in those.
IBM – that’s why we sell the calls. I can’t believe the $120s are still $1.33, that’s ridiculous, will roll him down to the $115s if they hit $3.50 (now $3.70).
Now may be the time to take those DIA puts off the table, brokers are making a mild comeback and oil stopped going down so at least use stops. XXX
