BTU puts for sure ahead of a build in nat gas at 10:30. The $45 puts aren’t worth owning so it’s really the $50s as a mo play. XXX
No meat to this open so far – Europe could not possibly have been nicer without being irresponsible assholes like our Fed so I guess the “I want a rate-cut” crowd is selling off.
RIMM – here’s a butterfly that pays between $92.35 and $107.65, you get a credit of $7.65 and a max risk of $2.35 so let’s do 5 in the $10KP and 5 in the $25KP since we have some margin room (and V gets crushed tomorrow). The proper way to enter these is to buy your directional (with the momentum) leg first, then cap the move by selling against it, then take the rebound play as momentum but that’s tricky and this play would be fine if you just buy it. XXX
Buy RFYVR Oct 90 PUT $3.70
Sell RULVT Oct 100 PUT $8.45
Sell RULJT Oct 100 CALL$6.10
Buy RULJB Oct 110 CALL $3.10
SHLD – I know, it’s crazy! News is fully spread today, I’m at least going to roll, 183% since Tuesday on the Nov $130s – I’m sorry as I thought it was too risky for Happy Trades…
OIH – I don’t know but I am getting ripped off on my SLB $105 puts, still just $3.30.
NEM – dollar is coming back a bit, gold is touchy at the moment. Markets pretty lame considering so I’m not out of FXI/PTR puts just yet but VNO Nov $110 puts at $2.75 are my next good short. XXX If they break $115 we have to give up and we can hopefully get them for $2.50 on an uptick. BXP is also right on the 200 dma at $110 so the Nov $105 puts for $195 for them are fun downside protection too. XXX
Factory orders worse than expected. Down 3.3% vs 2.2% but July number was stupid high so it balances a bit.
Letting FXI and PTR go, I need to roll anyway if I want to stay in. XXX
Posted October 4, 2007 at 10:42 am Permalink (Edit)
BTU – hmm, gas build was just 57 vs 70 last week so I’d kill the BTU puts.
MER announcing job cuts!!!
NEM – I’ll DD at .85 but NEM is too volatile to panic over.
RIMM diagonal – I always like those ahead of earnings on overpriced, volatile stocks. You still get wounded on a huge jump but you know how to manage it. That trade is an absolut XXX if you have the margins to sell just your end on a big run and just let the caller deflate before buying him back. I also like the Dec $103.38s for $9.95 against the Nov $100s for $9 as that will probably work our for a buck (XXX)
NEM – I’ll DD at .85 but NEM is too volatile to panic over.
RIMM diagonal – I always like those ahead of earnings on overpriced, volatile stocks. You still get wounded on a huge jump but you know how to manage it. That trade is an absolut XXX if you have the margins to sell just your end on a big run and just let the caller deflate before buying him back. I also like the Dec $103.38s for $9.95 against the Nov $100s for $9 as that will probably work our for a buck (XXX)
AAPL – it hasn’t been a good time to get in on Apple since August! I don’t know what to say with them, I think the risk is to the downside right now but I sure wouldn’t bet against them, although I guess I have by not rolling my callers…
SNE holding out for less but I will pick up the $50s if we break 14,000 and 2,750 (S&P already behaving itself). Happy and I are debating it as a Happy 100 play, he wants to wait for it to cross $50.50, which is smart but not fun and I’m in the mood for fun myself! I was correctly forced out of FXI and PTR so I’m pro Asia tomorrow if we post a good close. Oil is bouncing back so now we can focus on XLE at $74.50 as an upside breakout where we might want some COP $85s for $1 as a mo play but hopefully the NYMEX will fizzle and they’ll all go down a bit more…
HXL – no cover yet, let it run.
BRK.b very market bullish over $4K!
RIMM spread. Offering to take out 1/4 of my putters for $7 ($1.50 profit) that gives me a nice upside if they really tanks and no big damage on a wipeout, I will do the same with the calls if it drifts down. XXX
BXP Nov $105 puts – filled 12/20 at $2 despite the ridiculous $2/$2.70 spread. It never hurts to ask! VNO – not so lucky with a $2.60 offer.
RIMM – with tens of thousands of puts and calls bidding on each side, I’m rooting for a flatline and, either way, the IV crush in the morning will be very painful for putters and callers alike, how it plays out remains to be seen. Interesting dynamic in RIMM, my $100 putter is losing money fast but my $100 caller is not budging despite the big rise. If I get a free ride on the put side (my $100 putter drops $3.77) I will just cash him out and leave that side naked.
MCO taking a bath.
PFE- the guy we sold offers us good downside protection now, I don’t want to cap the upside. It’s way to early in the month to be changing our minds every time the little line wiggles.
RIMM – took out my $100 putters at $7.50, up $1 but that’s because it only costs $10 so I sell them back if they bounce back up but hopefully I can sell them again at $8.50 or better and reduce my spread risk by $1.
BTU – I strongly suggest even the daytraders not enter a position that they are unwilling to DD on should they lose 30%. If you don’t feel that stongly about a position then you should have a 10% stop on it when you enter it and if you don’t think a 10% stop will hold and you’re not willing to DD at 30% down, then what the heck are you buying it for as you are virtually guaranteeing yourself a 20% loss if it moves against you.
CHK was uncovered in LTP. It is basically a hurricane play so we only sold the calls to protect a dead spot but it’s not the main plan there.
CSCO $32.50s, I’ll go back to that well! 10 Nov $32.50s in the $10KP at $1.20 and 10 in the $25KP too XXX. Thanks Fan!
HXL – the Happy Trades are bullish calls meant to be uncovered. IBM was covered because it was a friggin’ disaster (still is).
SNE Jan’s will be the Happy Trade if they break $50.50 but not worth the extra cash if we fail $50 here.
RIMM – I think they jumped the shark ages ago, just no one noticed yet. The thing about RIMM is all the people who buy stocks are exactly the type of people who use a Bberry so they think it’s the most popular thing in the world but if you go to pretty much any random city outside NY or LA and go to a restaurant and you’d be hard pressed to find 1/50 people who own one. They have totally saturated the market they are likely to get and their concentration on the core business, while a good idea overall, has given them little chance of growth in the real phone market. Other companies are layering in features and courting corporations and, if it wasn’t for painful switching costs and the general pain in the ass it is for the workers to switch from crackberries to whatever, they would be losing corporate accounts right and left.
RIMM – I will resell the $100 puts if when they turn back up, I’m just scalping an extra buck while I can. With any strangle-type of spread, you want to squeeze as much as you can. That’s why having the ability to make cheap trades is critical because that shouldn’t be a consideration when you have the chance to improve your spread by even a quarter. Flim – If you broke the entry on the trade and you can’t get back to $8.50 on selling the puts then probably better off killing it, too risky otherwise.
Now I sold the Rim $105 puts for $10.70 and I am going to roll my $90 puts to the $95 puts for $2, which also picks me up $1 of spread. One slow day we should just pick a spread or two to play like this, if you do it right, you can work it into a free ride into earnings, always fun!
NYX – already in it. Sold the $80s to cover my ‘09 $85s.
Too many weak sectors to sustain a rally I think. FSLR doing what it does best, crshing off the day’s high. I’m pretty sure if I quit doing everything else and just trade this every day I can buy Berkshire Hathaway in short order. 
Of course, I used to think that about Google and it spanked the hell out of me once…
Oil direction – too dicey to hold over the weekend but you may want to hang on and hope for a rally buy all the people who still think you don’t short oil into the weekend. Watch COP at $82.75 and CVX at $91, if they both blow that – get the heck out. I am seeing some OIH comebacks and OXY is perking up, OII stopped us out this morning and they are a good one to watch as breaking $76.50 would be a positive retrace for them.
LFG – FNF is my favorite in that group as they are more tech savvy and I like the CEO better. Book value is tricky with all of these guys and it’s going to be a tough market for 18 months no matter what Larry Kudlow says about this being the greatest story never told.
All right, my boys at SU making a comeback – T Boone and I are going to party tonight! Probaly a bad sign for oil staying over $80 – that means there’s betting on a stronger jobs report tomorrow which could rally crude on demand but weak jobs may mean we get more Fed relief which will also rally oil. What they really don’t want is for a wishy-washy jobs number like 65-85K which keeps the Fed away but also shows slowing growth. Anyway, short story is to go long on oil stocks here, XOM $90 calls or XLE $75s should be best bang for the buck – day trades with tight stops. XXX
XOM Nov $95s at $1.45, 1/2 off at $1.70 with a .20 Tstop XXX
TASR – nice by the way.
LVS trading like it’s halted.
WFR turning up.
I can’t wait to buy INTC!
SYX – no, I expect better.
RIMM looks like it’s getting squeezed towards $97.50 into the earnings so play accordingly.
Trade War! More lead paint recalls – That’s funny, I thought the MAT CEO said that is was his fault, not China’s…
SNE – holy cow was that a lot of sellers at $50! Only makes me want them more when I see that, means someone is dumping but still wants a price and it’s probably keeping a lid on SNE at the moment.
TASR – I’d sell the Dec $17.50s at $2.20, that’s a pretty good bonus return! BDC – when you’re not sure about selling, roll instead, you can take 1/2 off the table, get most of the upside gains and set a 20% stop that keeps you over 50%.
This is not a market for letting things ride, stopping out of positions and staying liquid is the way to go, tomorrow could be a nice 200-point move one way or the other.
Yeah, XXX means generally recommended trade as opposed to trades we are discussing or my own moves which are certainly not for everyone. XXX is NOT for $10KP or $25KP or Happy Trades, as I would specify each of them but sometimes, when I sell or roll something, I forget which folder its in but if you have a position and I’m selling or rolling, it really doesn’t matter what folder and please feel free to check if I don’t say so.
TASR – out if you’re naked or cover with $17.50s, markets turning down again.
PNRA – it’s never too soon to take a nice profit! If I go long(ish) and the stock moves up quickly, you can bet it’s a surprise to me too and that’s why I often cover those, it’s easy for me to say, well X + $1.50 is more than I thought I would make overall anyway…
Mark – hey I like that friend of yours!
SLB – of course not, got banged out of those this morning. Should have flipped!
Oil finishing up $1.60! $81.54…
GS – surprisingly weak actualy, I’ve been wondering about that but I’m flipping my BSC callers up $5 as they look like they could do better.
Jobs – I said above, it’s all about the rates, not the jobs so bad jobs will be good. good jobs will be bad.
BXP – no I didn’t change price.
HMY – mine disaster not a total disaster. Nov $12.50s for .30, 20 in the $10KP, 30 in the $25KP XXX NO FILL
COP really starting to move.
RIMM – yes, if it doesn’t cost you anything it’s good to spread the risk a little further out. I am actually amazed how well the $105 putter is keeping his value, doesn’t really make sense.
RIMM flying now. Wow on GRMN too. Very narrow rally on old favorites.
CSCO – no, I wouldn’t sell against the Nov, it’s a straight play looking for a gain.
HMY – that is a good one for the stock virtual portfolio, I missed it. Selling the naked Oct $12.50s for $2 with the intent to own at $10 XXX NO FILL
Gold is on the move in general.
RIMM getting squeezed – well they leaped back off $98 like it was a hot plate, shaking the puts I think, I expected to take out my $105 putter for a nice gain if this happened but he isn’t budging, now paying a $5 premium to the position, that’s outrageous! On the whole, I’m taking 1/5 of the puts off the table, just to be safe.
HMY – I’ll pay the nickel if i have to.
I think RIMM earnings may be more important than jobs tomorrow. If they are doing well the Nas will fly and if they point to a slowdown in business toys – that will probably spook people.
COP totally kicking ass now!
GOOG – temporarily took out callers, will hopefully replace with higher on closing run. XXX
RIMM – yes too scary to risk a major move after this run.
FSLR – gotta love this stock!
XOM – can’t leave XOM and COP, too risky but I’ll leave XOM with oil at $81.50 and take the COP profits.
RIMM is going to be a wild one!
Tso – I’ll tell you if I like that spread in a few minutes! On the whole, I’m happy that I leaned a little to the bear side despite the ridiculous price of the puts.
RIMM up on talk of touch screen pone, no earnings yet – after hours traders are such idiots!
