October 9th, 2007 at 9:36 am | Permalink edit
FSLR going nuts again.
WFMI – no, frankly I’m scared to short things. BIDU was giving me an ulcer and that valuation is totally insane and even RIMM, who have NO reason to be at $120, have been a nightmare to short. That’s why I’ve been taking mostly spreads lately – it’s the most gentle way to short. I either beat my caller or deal with the upside, which only puts my leap more and more in the money so no major harm.
Market is strangely down.
October 9th, 2007 at 9:55 am | Permalink edit
RIMM, GS, BSC, MS, C, JPM (great call exiting yesterday), ADBE, LVS, WYNN, MCD, SHLD – strange groupon the weak side…
Oil sector coming on strong but running into sellers here, back around Friday’s close.
FDX, CSK, UPS, YRCW making moves. I still like the YRCW Nov $30s, now .95 as a mo play. XXX
I don’t mind being uber-bullish as long as 30% of the proftis every day goes into protection. If we can make 70% day after day after day until the party’s over and our 30% stops us from giving back more than 20% of our profits – however long they run, then we make 1/2 of the most we could have possibly made had we risked it all or nothing – I’m comfortable with that…
LDK – they took a beating over cooking the books – not the kind of thing I play for more than a technical bounce and we missed that.
DRYS on fire!
OII – no, not smart. Buying more up here to lock in the stupidity!
RIMM may be visiting $115 shortly, not cool during a general rally.
GOOG – we’ll look at these later as many of us need to roll up.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink edit
KO and PEP getting hammered on the downgrade.
I have to take some GOOG covers here, they’re paying me $20 for the $620s so I’m going 1/2 in on my open positions – there’s only 8 trading days left, that’s $2.25 a day!
One of my GOOG sets I have Jan/Oct $590s and I’m going to roll my Jans to the March $610s and the Oct $590s to the Nove $610s – it’s a pretty even trade that gains me a month (and another earnings period) as well as some premium. I’m in no hurry for this roll as my caller still has $7 in premium but I’ll do it before earnings.
CROX tumbling.
MSFT got a GS upgrade.
SLB turned down.
COH getting hammered!
Watch TSO puts at $1.20, we don’t want to give up that gain! XXX
October 9th, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink edit
BG was busted yesterday, I gave up. No way if MON isn’t leading.
Long-term on what?
VNO and BXP finally turning down – this is kind of bad because I was shorting them based on the premise that there are deep-seated problems in the mid to small caps (and the Russell is indicating this too) that were going to start coming out in earnings. Remember, the big boys who live for Int’l trade mostly own their own buildings. The commercial REITs serve the guys who live off the land here in the USA and there is every indication that is slim pickin’s this year.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink edit
HMY Nov $12.50s testing my resolve to buy more at .15
MTB ($25KP) selling Oct $105s for $2.60 (earnings tomorrow) XXX
October 9th, 2007 at 11:13 am | Permalink edit
RIMM – Virtual Portfolio Check:
$10KP – Spread was broken up leaving Nov $115, Oct $100 (sold) and Oct $95 puts – the Oct puts we sold should be gone. Right now we owe the caller net $8 x 5 and he has no premium (we already collected that much on the “good side”) so we can either wait for RIMM to fall below $100 or roll. As we have Nov, it is in our interest to wait as long as possible but the roll I’m looking for here is to put him into Dec $120s at $9.32 (+ $2 to me) and rolling myself to the Dec $123.38s at $8 (-.40 from me) as that puts cash in our pocket, lowers our margin spread and takes him out of the money.
$25KP – The only RIMM we have left here is the Oct $110 puts that we doubled down yesterday at $1.50 and $1.20 and I’m pretty happy with them!
STP – I’m stuck with the Dec $103.38s vs. the Nov $100s for now.
That’s all I had left.
Complex spreads broke 400% – thank you Google!
Looks like another dollar down rally.
RIMM puts – yes you should day trade these, there are still many fans who will swoop in and “bargain hunt” as it goes down (if it goes down!).
TASR – I love that trade (Jan $22.50s for $1.35, sell Nov $20s for $1.35) that’s an XXX from Dan!
SHLD – that’s why we sell calls, no matter how much we love someone!
TSO $25KP – holy cow! I didn’t notice that! Took out that putter a little too soon… Rolled Nov $50 puts to Jan $50 puts for $1.60. Will resell Oct $50 puts for $1.40+ or sell Nov $47.50 puts for $1.50 later
October 9th, 2007 at 11:37 am | Permalink edit
LOL Greed! I keep telling you, your brain is your worst enemy in this market. Thinking will get you nowhere – you just have to let things run and robotically add protection on the way up – I’d rather get the sure 50% gains than try to guess which stock will suddenly look ridiculous at the price du jour.
SOX getting killed today. JOSB going down despite my weekend trip there. SHLD going down makes more sense to me, the last time we went there was to buy a dishwasher about 2 years ago…
ANF finally turning down, that’s been a real pain…
GS – I’d play mo after the Fed but not before.
FSLR has moved into the solar section of WFMI’s neighborhood! $10Bn for a company that had $77M in sales last Q (perhaps it was the $44M in profits and no one noticed they came from a tax adjustment and not from actual operations?). The highest street estimate is for them to hit $750M for ‘08, even if they double net profits to 20%, that’s just $150M on a $10Bn company – MADNESS!!!
GRMN – more madness. No reason to take out the $110, he still has $3.70 in premium for the next 8 days and he’s giving you $4 of downside protection. You’re gong to roll him to the Nov $115 at $8.10 or maybe the $120s at $6.20 when you’re ready, both with huge premiums that will cover you even if the stock keeps flying up but, for now, you make .50 a day for doing nothing.
SBUX – I’d let him expire and wait. I agree with you, it’s bound to pop at some point and, if not, we need to roll down anyway rather than pay that margin to sell cheap calls.
XOM – not my 1K today, tempting though! As I said in today’s post, I’m waiting for a nice, juicy run to short oil again. It seems like someone thinks margins are coming back on crack spreads, good for big oil and refiners, bad for 300M other people in this country (but it’s OK, it’s not “core” inflation).
C – makes no sense if other financials are moving.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:07 pm | Permalink edit
TSO rolling over I hope, that would be pretty perfect.
RIMM on the brimm – teetering at $115.
SIRI is running off the latest comment on the Yahoo message boards re. XMSR merger – lot’s of nothing but fun to play!
Dollar down, oil and gold up – everything old is new again.
CSCO – D’oh, I sold them!
October 9th, 2007 at 12:46 pm | Permalink edit
IMF whacks US growth forecast to 1.9 (down from 2.8%). RoW to out pace us roughly double for next 2 years but also lower than original projections. In a rational world, that would be a short on XOM, steel stocks, coal stocks, autos… but we are so far away from rational that it’s just more noise (unless the Fed agrees with them, in which case it may carry some weight). This is all bad for the dollar, now touching 78.50 again.
CSCO – yes, I got out yesterday with a 25% gain, was too worried about the Fed, no one else seems to be…
FOMC – I think the logic is that it worked last time therefore it should work this time. Could be flawed and it’s interesting as things are getting a little soft ahead of the release. I have my finger on the trigger of DIA Nov $141 puts to cover, now $2.61 but, otherwise, I’m as bullish as I want to be.
FXI $190 puts also look good up here! I like the bear put spread, buying the $210 puts for $20.80 ($1 premium)and selling the $190 puts for $6.40 ($6.20 in premium) FXI would have to finish higher than $195.60 to cost you money. XXX NO FILL
October 9th, 2007 at 12:47 pm | Permalink edit
CSCO should be gone here!
October 9th, 2007 at 1:01 pm | Permalink edit
What is this thing Google is doing? I don’t understand… no one told me this could happen!
AAPL looks like it’s next. SOX going way down now.
It could be a head fake with 1 hour until the minutes. RIMM just now cracking the $115 line but not wanting to admit defeat just yet.
October 9th, 2007 at 2:30 pm | Permalink edit
DIA – Only have Nov $141 puts left and have sold Oct $140 puts against them for $1.20 (now .96). It’s a nice way to reduce the basis as I keep protection for a few weeks.
I also have Jan QQQQ $51s I sold Oct $51s against, which need to be rolled up.
Oil sector taking the fed well since they are the inflation the Fed is pretending doesn’t exist and the Fed just told them to party on and they will keep telling the American people how great things are with oil at “just” $80. It’s nice because if you leave it at $80 for a few years, it really is no year/year inflation!
October 9th, 2007 at 3:33 pm | Permalink edit
MTB – we picked them up a while ago. Tough call ahead of earnings but we’re playing for the crush.
25 Dow points were added between 2:28 and 2:30, this rally has very little to do with the Fed, just using it as an excuse but people are so conditioned now it’s like China trading out there!
Poole – wow, they did lobotomize that poor guy…
FWLT – rolled to $140 puts for .90, just looking to get my $2 back on a dip (if ever). They were $3.25 this morning and $4 yesterday and there are 8 days left (8 days ago they were $11).
October 9th, 2007 at 3:50 pm | Permalink edit
BTU Nov $50 puts are a fun way to play against oil at $2.10 but very dangerous!
COP Oct $85 puts at .95 are a fun mo play for tomorrow morning, also could be a total wipeout.
Good summary parchesia – really just go crazy bullish if you want but, at the end of each day, take 30% of your profits and put them into opposite direction plays. It seems silly as you do it until the market snaps and then you say “thank goodness."
