October 16th, 2007 at 9:38 am | Permalink edit
VCLK – in-line is kind of disappointing. I will like them after they’re done bottoming. ERIC is the bargain of the day.
LULU – baked in I think.
IBM – big earnings risk, I’m fully covered on the $120s as I’ll be thrilled to have that gain capped. I would at least cover 4/5 as you never know…
GM – wow, nice dip! GM downgraded by BSC who is going to be owned by the Chinese who are looking to push cars to the US – Shocka indeed!
Uh oh – our oil co’s aren’t going for it! Watch those XOM $95 puts if you sold them, need to stop out if things start collapsing.
IRBT – such a fun little company but they have a long way to go to put my $20s in the money. If this doesn’t get them over $18 I will consider selling the Nov $17.50s but only after expiration as this all may be pinning.
October 16th, 2007 at 9:45 am | Permalink edit
FXI testing $200.
LVS and WYNN picking up.
SU heading down, very, very strange with oil way up here.
Watch your BIIBs if you still have them.
DRYS $120 puts at $2.67 as a dangerous mo play – stop at $2.25, look for a double XXX
October 16th, 2007 at 9:47 am | Permalink edit
CSCO – probably pinned to expiration now. I wouldn’t go tossing money into things until the markets show us where the bottom is. Don’t forget if we fail 2,750 on the Nas, we could easily be back at 2,650 there and 13,500ish on the Dow. This is a very good test, especially on expiration week but let’s here how the earnings are taken too, so far it’s a mixed bag.
BIDU biting the big one!
October 16th, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink edit
BIDU $290 puts for $5 XXX (dangerous)
October 16th, 2007 at 9:53 am | Permalink edit
PTR Dec $220 puts at $22.15, selling the current $220 for no less than $4 if it goes the wrong way. The next roll is to Nov and the Nov $220 puts are already $16.80 so the combination should leave us well covered. XXX
October 16th, 2007 at 10:13 am | Permalink edit
Done with ANF at $1.15 XXX
October 16th, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink edit
OXPS – pre earnings panic, that’s why we bought 10 to start. We’re going to DD, hopefully at .30 XXX
IBM – I sold the Oct $120s against the Jan $120s and I’m keeping that position into earnings.
October 16th, 2007 at 10:20 am | Permalink edit
Oops, there goes the market! FXI going down too, double plus ungood….
October 16th, 2007 at 10:38 am | Permalink edit
MSFT Apr – I wouldn’t sell against that one unless the market is really falling apart (manybe soon if we break 2,750 though!).
If XOM goes you can kiss the Dow goodbye so let’s watch them closely. BA took a nasty tumble, very scary but the sellers are at least taking a rest 1 hour into it…
ERIC – no, that was a mo play to buy the Nov $32.50s, which opened at $1 I just dumped half at $1.40 for a .60 basis on what’s left. I got .50 for the current $32.50s so this is now a .10 trade for me but I wouldn’t want to risk new money unless it holds the LOD where I’d be back to buying more Nov $32.50s. XXX
October 16th, 2007 at 10:47 am | Permalink edit
I can’t believe it’s time but I’m going to take the DIA Nov $137 puts at $2.12 as a mattress play, rolling down my Nov $142 puts with tight stops (I also have the $141 puts, not so tight on those as they will become primary). This is not so much a bearish call as it is prudently taking a $4.35 put off the table in favor of a $2.12 put that accomplishes the same purpose but it is possible we get a bonus if it keeps going down. XXX
October 16th, 2007 at 10:51 am | Permalink edit
BG still going strong. MON looking pinned at $90 but they may be a great buy next week. I like the Nov $90s at $4, selling the Oct $90s if the stock breaks below $90 but at the end of day regardless. XXX
October 16th, 2007 at 10:59 am | Permalink edit
PTR sold $220 put at $4.70 will roll when I am done with it, maybe when they have $1.50 in premium left.
Plenty of bargain hunting going on. LULU flying. GSK getting interest which I agree with.
MDT continuing to come back nicely. Lot’s of buyers now.
October 16th, 2007 at 11:24 am | Permalink edit
I can’t believe my SU $100 putter still want’s $1.60!
PTR straddle. Yes, I also have the Jan $220/Oct $230 call spread from earlier.
OII down very nicely from last5 week but I got out on Fri 8-(
MAR – NOW it flies!
CAKE holding naked with a $3 basis on the Jan $22.50s, still hoping the markets can get through this. As it’s expiration week, it’s not very strange that we’re getting a big sell-off, even if everything was great. On the whole, this is what Happy likes to call venting, it will be up to earnings to give us real direction but if earnings are impacted by energy costs – look out below.
New puts – nope, not tight now other than COP Nov $85 puts ahead of the close as a gamble on inventory being a build. OIH having trouble at $200 but that is playing with FIRE. It’s the OIH margins that are sucking all the profits away from big oil.
Those QQQQ calls were good timing earlier!
AAPL Apr/Oct – Ah, that’s better. Well it doesn’t look like they’re ever going down so you have to just play them for the long haul and roll him up to the Nov $160s, roughly even. Wost case, if you pick up $5 a month between now and April, you’ll be selling him the March $180s for $13 and you’ll be $30 in the money! You could take a chance and move to 2x the Jan $170s ($17) and sell him 2x the Nov $170s ($11) to turn him into a pure premium play and take $9 per current contract off the table while still leaving yourself 65% covered with 2 months between you.
OSTK – who keeps buying this thing?
MON calls yes!
Courney, having cash isn’t being chicken, having cash is taking the time to find a nice opportunity. Like GOOG $630s as a mo play for $14, stop at $13 XXX
October 16th, 2007 at 11:33 am | Permalink edit
OXPS – where were you before when it was a DD call? Well it didn’t go lower than .45 today and we’re in for .75 so I’m not inclined to DD at .50, I want .35 the most otherwise I’d just as soon ride it out as is. You have to learn to be very cheap with your nickels in a small virtual portfolio or they will add up to lots of dollars you lose every year.
Yes, unless I say put, it’s a call unless I forget to say put, which happens once in a while but if the price or context look wrong, then asking is always good.
Getting a Paulson-timed market boost now but I’m not too impressed with the look of it so far as it’s the same old nonsense of all the old leaders coming back. BIDU with a big bounce!
October 16th, 2007 at 11:36 am | Permalink edit
QQQQ calls – Film made a nice call on them at 9:50, I’m not inclined to chase them but I sure am glad I took the money on those DIA puts!
INFY now a house of pain, seems way overdone to me but we still have .35 left in our $50 caller and he covers all but $100 of the whole position so I’m not inclined to move things around there.
October 16th, 2007 at 12:01 pm | Permalink edit
AAPL – their earnings aren’t until the 22nd but you wouldn’t know it from the price of the current $170s ($2.44). Take that money first, then roll, if you were going to roll down in November then that’s $2.44 of free premium no matter what happens.
BIDU maybe setting up for another drop. Done with the GOOG $630s at $15.30 XXX, not feeling very brave on a weak bounce for the markets.
October 16th, 2007 at 12:47 pm | Permalink edit
MO – absolutely cash the calls.. XXX
New Apple – I like the Jan/Oct/then Nov $170s best. The combined spread should work out to about $5 once you roll to Nov.
AKS – yes I picked them so they’re up! Well, ego aside there is some buyout talk centered around them. That’s why we did a 2/3 sell as I don’t think it will come by Friday but it’s a good enough sounding rumor to have some legs and, if true – woopie!
MON – no that was selling the Oct $90s on a sign of weakness (the break below $90) otherwise let it ride until the end of the day, when I’d rather take the cover regardless.
CY – You’re planning on taking .90 off the table by rolling both to the $35s AND you lose a month. I’d rather see you gain a month and roll yourself to the March $30s at $4.25 (- .70) and roll the caller to the Dec $30s at $3.20 (+ $1.40). You get the .70 off the table, stay in the money and gain a month on your caller who pays you another $1.50 in premium. That CY Mar/Dec spread for $1.05 is an XXX for a new entry too.
BLUD – I’d wait. Again, I’m not into buying a lot of naked calls on a 2nd consecutive down day. We dropped 150 points yesterday and just because we dropped anothe 100 points this morning but bounced up 50 points doesn’t make this a rally. Oh year, we also dropped from 14,200 to 13,950 on Thursday and Friday we only made it back to 14,100. When you drop a ball and gravity attacks it, this is a chart of the bounce profile and most of you physics students know how this ends up:
AIG – great bargain but so disappointing so far. P/E of 9 next year means I like the ‘09 $65s at $9, selling the Nov $60s at $3 but plan on using that $3 to roll down to the $60s if it keeps going down. XXX
SHLD – good attitude Richard! That’s right, it didn’t work but now we have an even better opportunity because we still have cash… This play is now ripe for a ratio spread though with 4x Mar $140s at $14.80, selling 3x Nov 135s at $8.35. We can afford to do 4 of those in the $25KP as it only ties up $2K in margin but I’m going to go 20/15 in Complex Spreads too. XXX
CFC – non-zero, sure but the $17.50 calls have the same non-zero so pick those up if they get cheap with 3 days left.
AAPL – well it’s always a guessing game but I just want my $2.50 premium and I’d be really ticked off if I don’t get it.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:01 pm | Permalink edit
C – holy cow! Do you mean losing Billions of dollars on bad loans actually matters? Say it isn’t so…
QQQQ – now you’re getting carried away Film! Watch the retest of $53.30, that’s make or break for an afternoon rally (another day that’s flying by!)
Oops, they’re rolling out the BSC getting bought by China Bank agian. AND IT POPS AGAIN! I am just amazed at the public’s ability to react to the same exact story 2 and 3 times a week! Remember last month it was Buffett but he killed it when he said it was BS. Now they bring out the China card – desperate, desperate, desperate…
October 16th, 2007 at 1:02 pm | Permalink edit
Homebuilder confidence 18 (50 is neutral), lowest ever measured. Sales are down, traffic is down with the west leading the pessimism.
Make that $88 for oil hit it for a few minutes.
SU not even moving on this. Something is just sooooo wrong.
Sellers are back from lunch – be careful!
BIDU $110 puts looking fun again at $9.15 as a mo play, out at $8.50, looking for $12 ($1 tstop there) XXX
CY/WFR – INTC and IBM will decide the fate of the SOX tonight.
CVX – that’s another good one but I think COP is a little more likely to plunge. No reason not to do both though as the Nov $90 puts are just $1.67 with the stock worth $80 at best so XXX for CVX too. All these oil plays are entries that we fully expect to have to A) Roll to the next $5 bracket up, B) roll to December, C) Roll up $5 more, D) Double Down, E) roll up $5 more, F) roll to Jan, G) Quit the markets and go skiing for the winter if oil is at $100 with no pullback by Jan!
IBM on fire – great expectations!
Woo hoo – leg 2 down on DRYS! Not leaving much on that one overnight so 3/4 out as soon as it stops falling, close enough to a double for my taste.. XXX
AMZN Butterfly:
Buy Nov $95s at $4.15
Sell Nov $85 call at $9.65 (credt $5, risk $10)
Buy Nov $80 put at $3.20
Sell Nov $90 put at $7 (credit $4.80, risk $10)
Max risk is .20, max gain comes between $85 and $90 and you lose .20 if it breaks out over $95 or under $80 but there’s a lot of places where you clear $2-$5 in between and, of course, we can always adjust. Depending on how your broker counts margin, this is a good $25KP or even $10KP if they recognize your risk is low but, as we have to move things around, it’s 5 max in the $10KP and 10 in the $25KP. XXX VOIDED!!!
October 16th, 2007 at 2:37 pm | Permalink edit
AMZN – oops, that credit was wrong on the puts, just $3.80 but there’s an extra .50 in the calls so it’s a .70 risk. max gain is between $85 and $80, about $5 gain against virtually no risk on the play, most likely either make $2.50 or it busts out and you pay the money back so don’t go spending it as NO MATTER WHAT you will be giving a good portion of the $10 back to the caller/putter.
Picking a direction – I can’t. I’ve been slapped around so much just taking logical puts that it’s hard to pull the trigger but, as I said before, I’m sure as hell not buying a bunch of calls on this weak action.
BXP and VNO heading to the 7th circle of hell. Bad sign for the general market.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:47 pm | Permalink edit
Damn, I can’t believe I stopped out of those BIDUs! Went back at it with 2x the $300 puts at $5 and I’m going to hold them since they are backstopped by the Nov $300 puts I’ve already sold against longer puts.
BA is an accumulate on the dips for me.
UNH also very nice down here.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:50 pm | Permalink edit
Cramer in to pump oil.
MON on the move finally.
LOL, Cramer says BG and suddenly a 4% gain isn’t good enough and they snap up to 5% – Imagine the POWER!
October 16th, 2007 at 2:56 pm | Permalink edit
AMZN $95s – of forget it for an extra $1, I don’t see it now either, maybe I got it wrong, I probably shouldn’t write those out while trying to trade, too complex… Sorry then, scrap it unless you can fill the trade at .70 or less. XXX
XOM new ATH! COP and CVX on the march – perfect for shorting. Those of you with smaller budgets are probably better off waiting until those of us who are going to pursue these trades to be suicidal – that’s just about the right time to enter!
BAC – $50 should hold – BETTER hold or we are in BIG TROUBLE.
Holy Cow! Remember when we made nice money playig JPM up? They just broke below $45!
I don’t like this action at all, nasty, nasty stuff happening..
October 16th, 2007 at 3:07 pm | Permalink edit
BIDU – Yee Haw! 2nd time’s a charm for today, thar she goes!
October 16th, 2007 at 3:16 pm | Permalink edit
BTU hit a cliff too.
Last call on oil puts before they join the party!
So much for SHLD finding a bottom…
October 16th, 2007 at 3:23 pm | Permalink edit
Treasuries dive when people dump stocks for cash. That means this money isn’t rotating, it’s coming out of the market fast!
AMZN spread – please cancel that if the numbers aren’t right. Overpaying for this is NOT worth it. I’ll fix it tonight but we have plenty of time before earnings.
INTC – at .35 I do like the Nov $27.50s, probably waste though they are. Don’t forget you don’t need a 10% pop, just a 2% pop the first day should give you a double if you are smart enough to take it and, the good news it, we’re very likely to get .15 back even if earnings are bad so XXX for fun.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:45 pm | Permalink edit
IBM – I’m happy to pay the guy if IBM gains more than 2.5% because he’ll get no premium and I’ll still have longer calls. On the flip side, am I willing to give up 2/3 coverage for 1/3 coverage? Er.. no.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:49 pm | Permalink edit
Tough call on BIDU with FXI failing at $200 I may want to hold some puts overnight. GOOG selling of at EOD is another good reason to stay short.
