October 17th, 2007 at 9:31 am | Permalink edit
YHOO – don’t go giving your callers their premium at the bell, it will deflate. DO roll yourself while you’re getting a good price but try no to pay more than yesterday’s spread (.80) as the rest is unneccesary premiums.
October 17th, 2007 at 9:36 am | Permalink edit
Wow SOX up 9 at the open, that’s huge. I DO BELIVE IN SEMIS!
BA keeping up with the Dow, they will be a good leading indicator one way or the other.
Let’s see if GOOG breaks $630 but I’m already seeing a lot of profit taking so I’m going to DD on my open DIA $141 puts at $2.70 XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 9:37 am | Permalink edit
That was Nov $141 puts.
Also, take out putters into the initial excitement, especially Oct ones, you can always sell them back if we break 14,000 but it’s going to be tough.
October 17th, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink edit
BIDU $320 puts at $9 are a good gamble as a mo play. Stop at $8 XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink edit
BXP and VNO weak throughout, nothing actually changing in housing.
BIDU hard to hold, FXI testing $210, that is going to make a great short soon. I must sell the $205 puts for $2.80 so I’m going to work my way back and I see I can sell the Nov $200 for $10.75 (that’s $13.50) so that means my cost of buying the Jan $205s for $21.90 is very reasonable so I’m offering $21 and I’ll hope for a pullback off $212 so I can sell the Oct $205s for a good price. XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink edit
C – Oh no! That’s BAD. Where is the faith people?
BSC not doing well either despite CONFIRMATION that the Chinese want to buy some.
CME is often a fun short into expiration. $620 puts are $3.50 and make a fun gamble if you don’t mind losing it.
October 17th, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink edit
OXPS – cool! Just remember, a prudent investor would sell half here and take a free ride on the other half. The logic is – would you have been happy with a double when you took the bet? If so, well here it is – learn to actually BE happy, not just to always “want to be happy.” Taking half now and keeping a 50% stop on the other half guarantees you a 50% gain, also something you should learn to be happy with. If it comes back down to .40, you can always buy more and, if it keeps going up and up and up… learn to be happy with that too!
INFY/India – If our market turns down there will be nothing to hold Asia up.
IBM – I’m thinking of rolling back to the $115s and selling those while I can.
BG – another temping short up here!
October 17th, 2007 at 10:06 am | Permalink edit
MON/BG – this is a back to cash situation, the weakness is scary here – we are NOT going to get better earnings news than we got yesterday unless AAPL and GOOG blow the doors out and the CPI was (if you swallow that BS) a good number so this looks to me like the big boys dumping shares on retail buyers and that is NOT GOOD!
October 17th, 2007 at 10:08 am | Permalink edit
Took out IBM caller for .10, rolled all calls to Nov $115s, hoping for a bounce otherwise I sell Oct $115s and hope for the best. XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 10:13 am | Permalink edit
OIH exhibiting strange behavior.
DRYS having another bad day.
LULU is YoYo
FITB falling fast – that can’t be good…
October 17th, 2007 at 10:31 am | Permalink edit
CAT – earnings on Friday, that’s why but they’d have to be pretty damn strong to break $80 from here.
OXPS – if it breaks $28.50 we may have something, too bad we didn’t DD yesterday in our small virtual portfolios but it was too risky. We took these as earnings plays in the $10KP and $25KP and earnings are next week so there’s no reason to bail (since we don’t have a 50% profit). We will, however, very happily take .30+ for the current $30s if it’s offered so let’s keep an eye on the Oct contracts. XXX
IRBT – Earnings on the 24th and earnings on track to triple next year… No thanks, I’ll hold. That’s why we sold the Oct calls – he had nonthing to gain and everything to lose… My basis is just $1.15 and, while it’s tempting to cover it. I really like thse guys.
MON – the call was to cover at EOD with the Oct $90s, working so far.
Looks like no radio show with new host. 8-(
Crude up 1.8M as expected (by me, not by analysts). Big Shocker to everyone else. Distillates up 1Mb, Gasoline up 1.8MB , rocking the markets! ROFL (doing my dance!).
October 17th, 2007 at 10:50 am | Permalink edit
TOOK out SU but not XOM putter (as the price wasn’t right) just in case we get a huge sell-off but I’m just looking for this to break the spirit of the oil bulls, not to kill them.
C – they have $27Bn in quarterly revenues. If they go down so does the country so I figure better to be an optimist and buy them down here otherwise you should be just buying gold and sticking it under your bed.
IBM – I’m in naked Nov $115s on all.
FSLR alreay up on anticipated earnings. With a current p/e of 169 and a forward p/e of over 100 (and that is INCLUDING an anticipated 195% increase in sales for FSLR as well as .19 on profits, raised from .17 they guided last Q) on the whole I’ll stick with my October caller as protection and and deal with the rolling after the news.
BIDU – yep, dangerous but fun!
XOM, COP, CVX – Oh yeah!
INFY – I recommend you don’t do veritcal spreads. I’d move to 5 Jan $50s, which will cost you $3 but save you a lot of worrying.
OIH – in theory you shouldn’t be able to peg an index. That’s some very major coordinated manipulation when that happens (but it happens all the time).
October 17th, 2007 at 11:42 am | Permalink edit
FNF – that’s bad, we should have rolled them earler. There’s no point here and we’re in for .50 net (after dead caller) but I’d hold this for a rebound. If the market wasn’t so dicey I’d DD.
Weak financials – USB is in a tricky spot, may go down from here if C and BAC fall. JNS is way ahead of their pack, make for a speculative short. BEN (10/25) has been rising on ever-increasing “assets” and it would be funny to see them write some of those off so I like the Jan/Nov $130 put spread for $3. XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 11:52 am | Permalink edit
BG puts – you can’t play everything. Very focused on looking over spreads today, must come up with an LTP review tonight.
FNF Nov – that’s not enough time, I’d ditch it. We have the Decembers at net .60, those I like.
GOOG – VERY IMPORTANT – you will NOT get anything like what is being offered for Nov contracts after earnings so, if you intend to roll, do it before then (tomorrow night). On the $620s, I would roll him to the Nov $620s to add $11 worth of protection (and $11 in premium) to the position. Yes you will get a $13 volatility crush BUT you are making a bullish play so if GOOG goes up $20 you will owe him $27 and you will only be able to perhaps roll him to the Nov $630s, which will almost certainly have much less than $15 in premium and will still cap your additional gains. If GOOG stays flat or goes down, then you want as much premium as you can sell to protect yourself (don’t forget you have $42 in premium on your $620s).
Speaking of GOOG, if the market is going to come back we can play the $640s, now $11.50 as a mo play with a stop at $10 if it crosses $631, getting out at either $635ish or if it breaks back below $630. XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 12:21 pm | Permalink edit
VLO and TSO down big. It’s funny how every seems to forget that the integrated majors make most of their money on refining operations too.
C – they pay a nice dividend and they’re just too darn cheap here. Also a China player who exports cheap American dollars and gets back juicy foreign currency – how could you not like them with a forward p/e of 9 and earnings already behind them. This CEO thing is nonsense, I’m sure one of Cramer’s pals wants the job so they’re villifying Prince, who has nearly doubled earnigns and revenues on his watch. Banks are not internet companies and, when one grows like an internet company, that’s when you should watch out.
FXI – HOLY COW! PTR too…
Ahhh… Pisani says change in stock rules is rampaging Chinese stocks. This is end of bubble desperation where they start doing anything they can to keep a rally going. Much like our own change to rules on naked shorting last week that gave a big boost to lots of bad stocks like OSTK and WFMI.
Dollar down, oil $88.50, gold $764…
UTX – may as well take them out and roll down the Jans to $75s for + $2.45 XXX. No reason to sell Nov $75s just yet but don’t let them slip past $2.50 on you.
C – $50 was a good place to scale in but here is good too…
PFE – not worth paying them a nickel. Just let them expire and hope for a bounce to sell into. They may be pinned for expiration anyway.
CROX – oops, wrong side of that trade!. You are lucky to get out at the moment with a small loss. I do like the Jan/Nov $70 puts spread at $2, which would be a free change of position for you. XXX PS, that would be starting with Jan $70 puts at $7.85 and waiting to see if you can get closer to $7 on the Nov $70 puts but cover by EOD no matter what.
FXI – until we understand the new rules, can’t really say what overpriced is. MSTR has a great business, wouldn’t bet against them. The Jan $205 puts are down to $20.15 and the roll to the $210 puts for $1.20 is an imperative. Let’s wait a while to deal with the caller but we’ve got that $1.20 in the bag already so gaining $5 in position for $1.20 is a nice bonus. XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 1:06 pm | Permalink edit
CHK – last few weeks of our hurricane play. No particular target, a storm will shoot them up $3 really fast.
GOOG straddle – lots of moving parts but at $625 those better be some damn amazing earnings! I’m sticking with the strangle, already a free trade.
PTR putter stopped out, ready to sell next one if it breaks down.
FSLR breaking down. $140 puts are just $1.50 but super risky of course.
AXP pinning $60 nicely already.
CHINA – beware! Now that we know why the shares went nuts it’s old news to the smart money who, unless the dynamics of the new regulations have really altered the fundamentals, will be dumping the shares on all us “smart” retail shareholders who THINK we know something that gives us an advantage. It’s all the classic elements of a con in a nutshelll…
RMBS – I only have a spread of the Jan $22.50s and the Nov $20s which I am fine with at the moment. I do think this week’s move is pinning but the premium on the $20s is ridiculous so I won’t buy him out as I can always roll him in Dec and he covers all but .18 of my Jans.
GOOG – see above. The Octobers have given up all they probably will ahead of earnings so, other than downside protection, they have no value and you must grab that Nov premium ahead of earnings.
PFE – no, we are risk appropriately covered in the small virtual portfolios.
STX, TLAB, LVLT – now that they’re coming down in price they seem more attractive BUT – market not making anything attractive right now.
Averaging Down – usually, I would rather have position (qulaity) than quantity. I am so glad things are going well, happy to discuss strategy in detail on the weekend.
DIA puts – If you do DD to get a lower basis then you need to set very tight stops on 1/2 once you cross even. That leaves you with your original amount at a lower basis than you intended to hold it – anything more than that is just you being greedy. So, assuming that the amount you took yesterday was adequate protection, then don’t risk the downside (or upside in this case). If you are now comfortably neutral – then relax and enjoy it.
BIDU bouncing – out of those puts but that was a nice run! XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 1:11 pm | Permalink edit
QQQQs may snap soon – fun play on the $53 puts at .46 XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 1:27 pm | Permalink edit
EBAY – Sell the $40 puts for $1.60, Sell the $40 calls for $1.40-$1.60 on the bounce. Buy the $42.50s now for .32 to cover the calls, buy the $37.50 puts at .35 or less to cover the puts. Hope for a $2.50 move in either direction and you win will be the amount of your winning side’s put or call after you pay the winning putter or caller back. Of course a flatline at $40 would be great. This only works if Ebay does run up, otherwise you have to abort the put side. Otherwise I would spread the Nov/Oct $40s as I think they have more upside than down.
Rates are coming down, money flowing into bonds – again. There’s only so many 100+ point intrad-day drops a person can take I suppose…
October 17th, 2007 at 1:57 pm | Permalink edit
VIX popping back up but down on a down day. That’s a very bad VixDex signal!
NEM/Gold – I’m chasing it down, NEM looks like a major pin job.
How about those CME puts!
October 17th, 2007 at 2:02 pm | Permalink edit
Beige book – pace of growth has slowed. Consumer spending expanding more slowly. Mfg growth weak across all industries but strong global growth. Slower consumer lending, commercial real estate uncertain. Business nervous in general. Food costs up, comanies taking the hit as they can’t pass on prices.
Not a good report.
October 17th, 2007 at 2:04 pm | Permalink edit
Out of Qs with a dime. XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 2:19 pm | Permalink edit
Market bouncing – good sign after reading the Book. Yet another thing that just doesn’t matter. Perhaps they figure the Fed has to lower rates again but I don’t see BKX repsonding.
October 17th, 2007 at 2:32 pm | Permalink edit
FWLT finally comes down!
October 17th, 2007 at 2:57 pm | Permalink edit
Wow, what happened? I went out for a minute and there’s a rally?
YHOO – you should be glad you get rid of your caller even on this drop and hold off until after expiration to sell the next (unless it drives down, then go back to selling the Oct as a mo play). You’re so in the money you can roll yourself up now.
Looks like a lot of meetings being held to decide what to do about the markets. There was plenty of bad news in that report for bulls or bears but, like I said, that’s it for real economic data this week. I see nothing that is likely to help and much that is likely to hurt soe we have to play this very carefully – could still be a long way down if we get some key misses and a bad Philly Fed tomorrow.
SU looks to be breaking down. My PTR puts are up to the Dec $240s now with the Oct $240 puts sold against.
October 17th, 2007 at 3:09 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG $600 spread – I’d roll that up to a 2x $630 spread. I think it’s around even and you’ll be a lot less upset if GOOG goes to $660 or higher and the downside protection is still good.
CAKE breaking out oof all things!
SHLD – No, I’m way ahead on an adjusted basis and I’m not going to sell another caller down here so I’ll probably ride out the weekend.
IMCL – Happy and I think they will fly with the sector but it’s a very slow takeoff so far. We’re in the Jans, Nov too risky.
October 17th, 2007 at 3:09 pm | Permalink edit
There goes LULU again!
October 17th, 2007 at 3:25 pm | Permalink edit
CME – as with any mo play, you keep tight stops. I’m out already and if they break over $618
October 17th, 2007 at 3:32 pm | Permalink edit
SNDK – take the $2!
GOOG – we are still in the $640 calls on our strangle and it’s a good time to tighten up the puts to the $610s for + $2.50 and offer another $2.50 to move to the $620 puts if that gap narrows. XXX
October 17th, 2007 at 3:35 pm | Permalink edit
CME – LOL, I forgot to say if they break $618 you should be out too!
October 17th, 2007 at 3:38 pm | Permalink edit
CY and SPWR fell off a cliff! Don’t know what’s up…
October 17th, 2007 at 3:41 pm | Permalink edit
CY acting like SPWR is only 1/2 done going down. Risky with earnings but I like the Nov $85 puts as a small play.
October 17th, 2007 at 3:57 pm | Permalink edit
China stocks gained close to $1T in value since last night. I’m pretty sure that can’t continue more than a few weeks before they are worth more than all rest of the combined stocks on the planet…
October 17th, 2007 at 3:58 pm | Permalink edit
FSLR – if SPWR is having trouble, they will go down in sympathy.
