October 18th, 2007 at 9:09 am | Permalink edit
BAC – they pay a huge dividend, getting bigger as the price goes down so don’t get too excited as I’ve got some of my guys buying on the dips (I have a foolproof BAC play for large players I’ve discussed in the past).
EBAY and many others getting hit with the downgrade stick – seems a little coordinated to me, possibly pre-expiration, pre-Google bashing of high flyers but I’m sure in no mood to take calls on right now.
October 18th, 2007 at 9:40 am | Permalink edit
CY – they own SPWR so their earnings are tied to them and SPWR took a big dive.
FXI – I wouldn’t mess around with China other than the plays we’re in as they can whip that market on us but, like I said, yesterday’s move was a total sucker’s rally and I’d love to short into another one.
CSCO doing well so far.
PTR – ROFL, that’s going to be a huge winner! That’s why we roll up into silliness. If they break $250 I may roll my Oct putter up to the $250 or $260 puts but I’ll see what happens there before I adjust my longer puts.
There’s a buying bias to the trades I see right now, BA, UTX, TIF, UPS, STX…
Let’s do that STX play from Wed am post, that’s one I’m willing to chance. XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 9:47 am | Permalink edit
BAC – you have to buy the stock, it’s not an options play. $47.50 should do it and you DCA down until you have a lock (selling the $47.50 calls for now), we can talk about the rest later if anyone really wants to do it but it’s good for about 13% a year – the advantage is you can do it with a few million if you want…
Once again OIH strangely weak.
IBM should hold but so should a lot of things. AMZN had a huge dip, the $90 calls are a fun up play at .81 XXX but out if they can’t take back $90 by 10:15 or if they even touch $89.
October 18th, 2007 at 9:53 am | Permalink edit
BXP and VNO tailing off again.
Gold – AUY is still reasonable and you can own it for $14 and sell the Jan $12.50s for $2.50 for a net cost of $11.50 and a 10% profit for the quarter. XXX You can also go long with the Jan ‘10 $15s for $4 and sell the Nov $15s for .50, also a good return on investment but not as safe.
Gartner – PC sales should be good, laptops huge. Apple is gaining market share in laptops…
Oops, now the sellers are weighing in heavy!
October 18th, 2007 at 10:12 am | Permalink edit
CAT – you do want them to do well you know.. You have a year of rolls ahead of you, up is not a problem.
Oil at $88.50! SU going nuts! Rolling SU Nov $100 puts to Jan $100 puts and selling Nov puts to cover but not right away as this may still fall apart. XXX
STX was the Jan ‘09 $25s for $5.45, now $5.95
EBAY – the spread exit is to take out the $40 caller for a dime, just in case (and buy some just in case), try to get a nickel for your $42.50s. Sell the $37.50 puts for .25 if you can leave the putter naked and anything we buy him for less than the current $2.15 is additional profits (spread is up 23%). XXX
Gold about to test $770
BIDU – oh no, BIDU is sure acting like that news is true! It also sounds very much like an expiration week rumor but we LOVE those. I’m grabbing the $320s for $7 as a mo play, stop at $6 but if we break $620 we could be in great shape. XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 10:31 am | Permalink edit
BIDU – Oh, don’t forget I’m covering puts, naked that’s a dangerous play!
October 18th, 2007 at 10:47 am | Permalink edit
Low build in nat gas inventories, should rally gas, coal, our CHK plays and helps the majors too… Ironically, not good for SU as it’s a major input cost for them.
STX – no, we’re going to have faith in this one so not covering.
SPWR – stopped out on yesterday’s put play on that sudden turn, not going to touch it now, too risky.
SU – I went to Dec $105s to take better advantage of the drop.
BAC is better to own, it’s duller but C has better growth prospects in addition to the constant little pops it gets when people think Prince is stepping down.
FXI – last I hear China said market merger is NOT happening, raising BIDU stop to $317.50 ($1 trail), not going to take a chance on the while China deal flopping. XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 11:12 am | Permalink edit
BG puts – I can’t log all my sales, at 25% you need to set a stop if you go down to 20%, at 30% you increase the stop to 24%, at 35% you stop at 28%, at 40% you stop at 32% at 45% you stop at 54%… Those are stops. It’s not a law because you have to use a little discretion but if you’re up 25% and you even THINK the tide may be turning – TAKE THE MONEY!!! Even if you are only paying with 5% of your virtual portfolio, a 25% gain taken 10 times a year is a 12.5% gain on your ENTIRE virtual portfolio! If you are smart enough to take a 25% gain once a week, that’s a 65% gain for the year. All you have to do then is try not to lose more than 10% on the rest of your virtual portfolio mix and you’re beating 99.99% of the “pros.”
A single double wipes out 5 20% losses if you manage your position sizes properly. It’s easy not to lose money if you cut your losses because a winner will come once in a while as long as you have the money to keep trying.
Speaking of doubles, I’m not sure BIDU’s going to be one. Let’s get out here at $8. XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 11:23 am | Permalink edit
FXI – I’d take those $205 puts for $1.10 – what the heck… (I know that seems contrary to what I just said but when you’re well ahead there’s nothing wrong with having fun gambling once in a while..)
DRYS – I wouldn’t want to sell those $130s the way that thing moves!
DNDN – congrats to those who followed my plan to sell $7.50s for $1 on that last spike. Like I said at the time, it will work every month until it doesn’t but so far it’s been great since May.
Gold – my pals at MRB had a big shake out yesterday so I’m going back to accumulate there at $5.25 if they come back. NAK is laying around at $12.20+ and I’ve got an offer there at $12 too. These are very long-term stock plays but I always end up selling them as they spike 10% about once a quarter so it always seems silly not to sell.
ICE – very tricky for earnings but I would think they have a good quarter. I’d sell these $160s for $1.50 and then roll to the Nov $160s for another $9 and take the Jan $165s for $13.30 for myslef. (step one, buy Jans, step 2 see if you can get $2+ for the Oct $160s (make sure you get a buck), step 3 wait for premium to be .25 and then roll. XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 11:46 am | Permalink edit
HMY – nothing to do. We wait. The commitment is $1K in the $10KP and $1.5K in the $25KP and we’re not going to take a $800 or $1200 loss with a month to go, this is one of those cases where I’d rather get wiped out than try to “fix” an unfixable position. The position was a hedge in the virtual portfolio against a major market collapse driving gold up as the bulk of the virtual portfolio was very bullish. As such they are great protection but now a little far out of the money.
October 18th, 2007 at 12:04 pm | Permalink edit
CNBC – just said some Fed governor said they intend to act to maintain price stability??? That would be a raise, not a cut!
Philly Fed 6.8 vs 10.9 expected – what mess! New orders 2.7 vs 15 last month but prices paid were 40.3 vs 23.1 last month so at least that’s going up…
Santelli says inflation no surprise in the bond pits but I’d like to find out which Fed Governor said what exactly. I’d have to think that would override all bullishness if the Fed shifts to inflation fighting mode (and jobs are strong enough to give them an excuse to do it).
IMCL breaking up finally.
October 18th, 2007 at 12:11 pm | Permalink edit
BIUD getting a boost now that CNBC is catching up with mrl14’s news from 9:50. Good job with that one! My bad giving up on BIDU but I didn’t think we scooped the investment communtiy on that rumor by over 2 hours… Having watched the action, I’d say the best move now is to SELL the $320s as this rush peaks out. You can spread them against the Nov $340s but it’s better if you can sell them naked and scoop the premium, probably between $9 and $10 as Hope says the rumor is false and I only see no confirmations of what should be a huge story if true. XXX if you have the margins
October 18th, 2007 at 12:35 pm | Permalink edit
HXL – like IMCL, Happy and I think it’s going to pop but I sure am glad we took a cover! This is another one I think is pinned and I’ll wait until next week to decide about selling but I like them here for a move up and, since we can sell Nov $22.50s for .80 I’m willing to go DD at $1.50 as it would be totally covered by a full sale. XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 12:54 pm | Permalink edit
ICE picking up. (come on, that’s a good one!)
There are no new Happy 100 trades. Andy had to give me a list, I have to agree but IBM is just sitting there and HXL is half of where we entered and AMGN is about the same price so you didn’t miss much yet. These are not meant to be quick trades, we wanted to pick things that had a mellow time-frame so the most possible people could participate.
YHOO poking back up.
Usual suspects are rallying: FWLT, RIMM, BIIB, NILE, ADBE, JOYG… We could go green if this catches on. Once again, nothing matters to the market.
UNP with a huge move.
OXPS perking up.
VNO and BXP recovering so someone is bullish about something!
October 18th, 2007 at 1:30 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG $650 spread – I don’t believe the Jans will retain much value if they tank, it seems risky to me. I’d rather go Jan/Nov $650 for $15 or even the Jan $650/Nov $640 for $10 as his $25 in premium takes him well past the $10 gap between you. Expectations for GOOG are high but I’m expecting them to announce how they are going to monetize YouTube, which no one seems to be looking at. XXX
AUY – no if it’s over $12.50 we get called away, pocket our 40% annualized return and move on.
SNDK – SOX are down 5 today, if they break below 490 (1 more) it may be time to short the mighty Nasdaq. For SNDK I’ll take it for free (hopefully) by 1) buying the Jan $47.50s at $6 2)Selling the Oct $45.70s for $3 or better (no less than $2.50) 3) AFTER earnings, rolling them to the Nov whatevers for another $2.50 or better in premium. With any luck, we could get a free ride, if the report is bad, we can always roll or whatever. XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 1:34 pm | Permalink edit
Buyers pouring in, we’re going green!
October 18th, 2007 at 1:39 pm | Permalink edit
WM – every once in a while reality sneaks in the door and takes a bite out of someone but I think the fix is in with Bernanke timing comments with GOOG earnings it seems to me they’re looking to go out with a bang this week.
DRYS $125s for $1.80, stop at $1.50 as a mo play XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 1:59 pm | Permalink edit
RIMM flying, I rolled forward to Jan and DDs on the $116s but will absolutely cover before the bell.
October 18th, 2007 at 2:09 pm | Permalink edit
Gold – well the fact that the market is rallying doesn’t mean it isn’t stupid, I’m still into gold. AAUK is moving now in fact.
GOOG Double spread of Nov $630 puts and callls for $57.70 vs. Oct $630 puts and calls for $34.50, net $13.20 XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 2:20 pm | Permalink edit
Pullbacks starting – seems like a lot of work to go flat for the day!
Damn, forgot about SPWR after all that. Earnings were just OK and they took off!
October 18th, 2007 at 2:41 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG 40 point strangle – too much like gambling for me. It still costs you $11 so you need a 50-point move pretty much right away to make money. Better off keeping your cash on the side and gambling on a mo play in the morning, the strike $10 out of the money should be less than $10 – realistically, you’d be better off setting up your strangle then. We’ve worked into a $640 call/$620 put strangle that cost us $5 each earlier in the week but we had time to adjust it. With the $640s at $17 they are no longer worth risking on earnings so I’m taking 1/2 of the puts and calls off the table before the close, which will leave me with 10 free puts and calls for earnings. XXX
October 18th, 2007 at 2:50 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG Jan/Nov spread
SU puts – well that was my theory but they are hurting me at the moment! Oil at $89.66 right now though, that pays for a LOT of gas! I am very tempted to take the SU $105 puts for .60. In fact XXX for 10 in the $10KP since we can afford a gamble there.
October 18th, 2007 at 3:43 pm | Permalink edit
RIMM $115 puts, that’s not a bad idea. Kind of a cheaper cover on GOOG! XXX to some $115 puts for .56 as a gamble. XXX
