October 26th, 2007 at 9:25 am | Permalink edit
DELL – I like them long-term and I do think it’s good the Dell is back from his little vacation.
BIDU benefitting from MSFT numbers. MSFT benefiting from pent-up upgrade cycle (how long have we waited for this damn thing) as well as catching the wave on the XBox (gotta hand it to them for sticking with it until they got it right). Also, MSFT is the definative exporter so they were in the sweet spot for the kind of US companies that should do well in a dead dollar environment. Best of all, they don’t even really make anyting but CD’s, and those can be done anywhere – it’s the perfect business!
Long-term, the more people that convert to Vista the more MSFT will start to make on other things like office as Vista has some nasty copy protection which will force many corporations to double and triple the number of copies of other software licenses they have.
TSO – THAT should finally kill our putter! (not much fun for our longer puts though).
CFC – be patient, massive short covering if they stay over $15 as many had bet them bk…
October 26th, 2007 at 9:30 am | Permalink edit
MSFT trade – probably sell the $35s against a longer $35. Just over $36 should be the max gain but I’d be thrilled to get $2 for the current $35s against the Apr $35s at $4 or less. XXX
BIDU’s earnings were pretty good.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink edit
Woo hoo – gold $780!
Rolling up BIDU putters at $10 for a $20 roll!
October 26th, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink edit
Nas 2,800, Dow 13,700, S&P 1,530 – I don’t think we’ll hold them, there are huge issues still unresolved and MSFT is giving us the same kind of boost that AAPL did on their earnings – it’s too specific to lift the whole market for long.
Of course that’s my brain talking, not generally a good predictor of short-term market behavior, especially around a Fed meeting!
October 26th, 2007 at 9:55 am | Permalink edit
TIE going well (but then again, what isn’t?).
Actually that’s a good idea, we should be looking at who is NOT doing well in a crazy rally like my BEN puts, GLW, FAF, DO, TASR!, ACAM, BC, ICE (still), GE, FDX, SHLD, HOG, airlines… Looks like someone is dumping on consumrer discretionary again – bad sign.
Rolling up to $137 puts and adding 1/2 the $136s at $1.75, .25 trailing stops. Stop at $3 on $136s (not adding or layering up but will buy $138s if we get a triple break of my levels. XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 9:58 am | Permalink edit
While it’s very dangerous, I really like the BIDU $330 puts if they can be had for $11 XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 10:00 am | Permalink edit
CFC with a big turn already!
Mich Sentiment 80.9, down from 82 last month, not a good number!
October 26th, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink edit
TSO way up as their economist forecasts a 30% drop in oil prices (which will magically erase their devestaing profit decline they are about to report). L O L I say – I believe him as much a Mozilo (although I do think oil will go down, I think his comments were entirely self-serving). That makes the TSO play taking out the Nov $50 putter for .10 and rolling the Jan $50 puts to the Jan $62.50s for +$1. XXX for $10KP and $25KP
October 26th, 2007 at 10:08 am | Permalink edit
VLO $75 puts at $2.72, stop at $2.70, stop at $2.25, looking for $1 XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 10:16 am | Permalink edit
$10/25KP – Now that MSFT is climbing down, if you didn’t roll the Dec $32.50s to 2X the Nov $35s at the open, look for another opportunity on a run up if you can do it for just $1 as that’s probably the best remaining bet. If you can’t get that, then better to just take the Original Apr $30s off the table (up 248%) and let the Apr $32.50s stay as the longer call (even with the Decembers). XXXOctober 26th, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink edit
October 26th, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink edit
SU coming down! $100s as a mo play at $2 XXX (.25 trail)
October 26th, 2007 at 10:25 am | Permalink edit
OXPS breakout would be a close over $28, very much held down by options right now.
MSFT Apr/Nov $30s – DD both to the Jan ‘09/Dec $32.50s, you have to pay back his $1.37 but you buy yourself a mile of time.
Here goes BIDU I think… If not, probably not safe to stay short.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:26 am | Permalink edit
VLO – oops, don’t know where that came from – $2.25 is correct stop.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:31 am | Permalink edit
MSFT Apr/Nov – I’m not excited about it as a new position. I like it as protecting profits and taking a chance and scalping some premiums but the risk/reward isn’t as good if you’re coming in fresh.
DIA puts – good timing RCHA. Yes, you do want to SCALE into a rally like that, you often get the cheapest prices of the day when it’s spiking against you.
BEN! Turning into the trade of the week!
October 26th, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink edit
YHOO – Ray, you need to keep a stop on that caller or go down to 3/4 as the alibaba IPO may do amazingly well, dropping $1Bn to YHoo’s bottom line. The official $10KP adjustment of YHOO Apr/Nov $30 spread is to roll the 10 Apr $30s to 20 Jan 32.50s (even) and roll the 10 Nov $30s to 20 Nov $32.50s (-.20). XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 11:03 am | Permalink edit
I’ll tell you what bothers me about TSO – why would he announce he wants to buy 28M shares at $64 with the stock at $55. That is irrational behavior, he’s not buying the whole company, just 16% of it (and now he’s paying for 17.3% worth). The scam is that Tracinda already owns 5.5M shares and now all he has to do is say they couldn’t come to an agreement, dump his 5.5M shares ahead of earnings and he gets away clean while everyone else eats the stock. That’s my theory and I’m sticking to it! Earnings are on the 31st.
CCJ – from that 3/2 position I’d go to 2X the Mar $50s ($5.80) and roll the caller to 2x the Dec $50s ($3.40), that should be about neutral and takes your caller off the money and back into premiums while leaving you lots of time to sell more (twice as much selling off the same basis!).
FSLR is one of my “up too much to bet on earnings” stocks, although some haven’t been bad bets in techland.
STX – I like them long-term, short is tricky.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:17 am | Permalink edit
CME holding $666
TSO, it’s more than $1 to go to the Nov $62.50 puts now (and I’m sorry I was too cheap to take the $65 puts now!). I really hate to say chase it now that it’s up .60 as I’m willing to stop out up $1 if it turns (down $1 on the total trade).
VIP – we’re only sick that we didn’t listen to you BBD!
October 26th, 2007 at 11:23 am | Permalink edit
Watch breakdown levels at 1,520, 13,700 and 2,750 (feels like we’re going to test them at least)..
October 26th, 2007 at 11:33 am | Permalink edit
Be careful with BIDU – it’s very hard to get filled sometimes so you need to take your profits a little early.
SU – I’m willing to roll up to the $105 puts and hope reality strikes in the next 14 days so I’m staying in but if you’re not willing to DD or roll it’s going to be a tough play.
Someone noticed people who buy MSFT tend to buy CSCO (to send that fat Vista bandwidth around). CSCO Dec $32.50s at $1.40 XXX (will sell Nov if in trouble).
October 26th, 2007 at 11:35 am | Permalink edit
Finally DRYS goes down! Can FWLT be next???
October 26th, 2007 at 12:01 pm | Permalink edit
BEN – yes but not the ones I picked. I got daring and went with the $135s this morning, nice double already.
Gold up $13 levels getting tested to the downside despite collapsing dollar.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:03 pm | Permalink edit
BIDU trying to sneak down without anyone noticing.
PTR flying down, interesting. FXI falling – did 30K pop the bubble in Hong Kong?
October 26th, 2007 at 12:05 pm | Permalink edit
Saving money by taking DIA $135 puts here for $1.67, stop at $1.50 XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 12:08 pm | Permalink edit
That’s a good layer 3 strategy by the way. I’ve got the $137 puts in very good shape so I put a nickel stop on them and transfer my risk to the cheaper puts, lowering my capital at risk (2:1 ratio) but giving me 75% of the upside benefit from the $136s and $135s. The next layer, I would go with 1/2 the cumulative number of puts that are still in play and REALLY look to pull the highest levels off the table.
Triple test right here!
October 26th, 2007 at 12:20 pm | Permalink edit
VLO, we might tdo better if TSO pulls back as VLO was only up on TSO’s news – certainly not up on $92 oil. All refiner sentiment is totally out of control as gas prices are not keeping up with oil prices therefore they make less money – this is not rocket science – this is not even hard math!
Wow – backwardation on NYMEX now about $10 for a year, that’s close to $1 a month loss for holding oil. No wonder speculators are in a desperation mega pump. It would be easy to bet against them if the President and the Treasury Secretary weren’t working to help them out.
COH – good for a leap. Too dangerous short-term.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:28 pm | Permalink edit
TSO – not naked into the long put, sorry that was a typo, naked into Nov put to pick up the drop from $65. The $62.50s were $1.80 at the time, now $2.35. At this point, we can spend .30 more to roll to the Dec $60 puts at $2.67 where we will hopefully get an opportunity to sell the current $60 puts for a good price ahead of earnings. XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 12:30 pm | Permalink edit
Buyers came pouring back in on that level test.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:37 pm | Permalink edit
If we get a real drop (breaking levels) POT will probably retest $110 and their $110 puts are just $2.90, can be stopped at $2.75 as any up move would be bad (stock at $115). XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 12:50 pm | Permalink edit
VLO/Anything – I’m really against hard stops. If you practice watching your stops enough you’ll learn when to hit them most of the time but, more importantly, you’ll learn when not to hit them.
SPWR picking up nicely (again!). Had no reason to sell our $110s since we reentered yesterday.
FWLT – I look at NO options on that damn thing anymore! It is a blocked trade for me. There are certain stocks everyone should stay away from (because you get too personal) and this is currently mine – they totally annoy me at this price but I’ve been wrong on them 3 out of 4 times so I walk away (Tina gave me a t-shirt that says “If I can’t win, I won’t play,” very much my attitude about stocks).
KRY – very tricky in Venezuelan politics but a Toronto company has a chance of getting through.
Welcome Troy! Nickel stop is watching for the best sale of the day (all stops I talk about are based on last sold, not bid/ask) and getting out pretty much if it drops just a nickel. This is something we do if we are getting ready to exit.
VLO still going down, no stops there so far! Getting close to target though so be careful here, don’t give up nice gain…
October 26th, 2007 at 12:59 pm | Permalink edit
MSFT – I think $40Bn of additional market cap in one day is probably good for the week. Let them sell off and, if they don’t, then either wave goodbye or think about the $35s or even the $37.50s.
Oil not going down into the weekend, need to leave that sector alone on both sides.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:02 pm | Permalink edit
Rolling BIDU $310 puts to $320 puts for $2.80 (couldn’t turn that down!).
I am covered as I have deep in the money puts and Nov puts sold against them.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:16 pm | Permalink edit
ATI with a real delayed reaction today.
TIE up and up and up.
We forgot BOOM again!
Gold $785 test.
TSO – I’m considering a 2/3 sell (10) but I’m very tempted to leave it open, very tough call with earnings coming up but this stock is such a scam and Kirkorean is a known scammer and the timing and the details of the story just don’t ring true, it’s a tough call but I have to go with my gut.
IMCL – give it time. We may as well benefit from a Fed rally if one comes on Monday. My plan is to weight my strangle 50% bearish as a cover but leave a lot of open calls (assuming we hold my levels for the day).
October 26th, 2007 at 1:51 pm | Permalink edit
NYX – brokers have come in well, they should do well. Maybe 1/2 cover.
DIA puts/calls – you have to offer when it’s going against them, you just need to pick your spot and have more patience than they do. Those pennies really do add up! I’ve often thought about just playing all day long for those penny spreads, dropping 1,000 lot buys and sells looking for a penny or two at a time 10 or 20 times a day. It would be tedious but profitable.
BHP – could go to $90 on Fed easing easy.\
October 26th, 2007 at 1:53 pm | Permalink edit
Puts are for weekend protection. There are about a dozen possible stories that can tank the market over the weekend. I want to be in a full strangle ahead of the Fed, ready to take advantage of a 300-point jump (or dip).
October 26th, 2007 at 2:21 pm | Permalink edit
MON really flying now.
This is that irrational fed rally (again!)
TSO – if you still have the Jans you should at least cover with the Nov $60 puts.
I’m finding no news driving this, just crazy action again.
EBAY coming on strong.
BIDU going way up now. Rolled for another $3.50 to $340 puts. XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 2:49 pm | Permalink edit
I am very psyched to now have the DIA $138 puts at a $2.40 basis!
October 26th, 2007 at 3:04 pm | Permalink edit
Welcome Mac! DIA $138 puts are so cheap at $2.40 and the $138 calls are $2.17. You need a good 200-point move to make money, one that would let you add a layer of say the $139s at $2 (which would stop you out of the puts at $1.75) and a layer of $140s at $1.75 (which would trigger a tight stop on the $138s at $3 and a stop on the $139s at $2.25). From that point forward, any additional move is all profit (and you can start buying puts on the way up to lock in the top).
Don’t count on a drop here folks – we could open Monday with another crazy scheme to bail out the banks and then there will be a rumor that the Fed will bless it with a full-point cut etc. etc… I’m goign in as neutral as I can with lots of cash… XXX
October 26th, 2007 at 3:21 pm | Permalink edit
Dollar off another 1/3%!
YHOO – If you just rolled and you didn’t stop out your caller then it’s not worth taking him out with a high premium but, it could get worse so maybe buy yourself a couple of calls on top of yours as a pre roll for some naked gains in case the stock goes nuts.
ACI, HAL, and BTU – They should set themselves up to get called away. ACI jan $40s, for example are $3.45, the Apr $40s are $5.10, that’s a huge gain for a stock player between now and then and pretty good downside protection (and they can always roll them down). HAL is more volatile but doesn’t pay as well (go figure) but it’s the same with the Apr $40s at $4.60. BTU (not very diversified are they) Mar $55s for $7.80 will take the sting out of most losses.
NOW sellers are showing up? This market is truly insane…
October 26th, 2007 at 3:37 pm | Permalink edit
BIDU – at $3.50 per $10 roll up with expiration 3 weeks away I’m more I’m more into press, press press. If they want me to pay $14 more to end up with $380 puts, that’s just fine with me!
YHOO – just leave yourself with upside protection, whatever it takes!
HMY – man I have got to stop listening to you nervous $10KP people! Everyone was so worried about it that I overhedged. Don’t freak out though, the caller has $2,800 in premiums and we still have protection to the upside.
TWX – I missed that about Parsons, I would have bought. He was terrible CEO. That’s another one that killed us in the $10KP last Q.
HAL – I don’t know, Bush looked pretty upset today that the Dems won’t give him his military budget. Going to be hard to fight a war without more cash…
October 26th, 2007 at 3:59 pm | Permalink edit
Najerian says YHOO options getting bought like crazy in the Jan $35 calls.
Gold $787
Nas 2,800!!!
IRBT – you’re not supposed to like it, that’s how they get rid of you! I’d roll to a March/Nov $17.50 spread, should cost you .20 but better if you leave 1/4 uncovered.
KFN – I don’t know enough about them but it is an interesting options char. Remind me on the weekend.
Very bad day for covers but if you are holding up with the VIX down below 20 (off 15% from Weds) then you are in good shape.
SU – nah, like BIDU, you want to roll up to the $110 puts.
WFR – holy cow, you never took them out? Oh well, it’s good weekend protection, we’ll deal with it Monday.
