October 30th, 2007 at 9:44 am | Permalink edit
TSO – very dicey! We need to take our naked puts off the table this morning and reposition later if they break $60.50 because we reached our primary goal of getting even and there’s no way we want to blow that! I’m not sure what play will be appropriate and earnings aren’t until after inventories tomorrow so we could go back to $65 or down to $55 between now and then.
YHOO – event day is Nov 5th so I’m scaling into the position (Apr $32.50) and will roll down if my $30 caller (1/2) gets crushed.
October 30th, 2007 at 9:52 am | Permalink edit
GOOG blasting off, can they take the markets up with them or is this another one of those days when they are going to focus on pumping the horsemen in order to incite a rally?
BA flying! AAPL looking good, let’s watch 1,540, 13,850, 2,800 and SOX 460 as break outs. 3 of 4 and we go bullish until they turn. XXX
TSO flirting with our danger zone, watch VLO at $71 to confirm that it’s time to cover. XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 10:02 am | Permalink edit
Bought GS Dec $240s as a mo play $18. XXX
Consumer confidence 95.6, NOT 99.6 expected!!! Down from 99.5 in Sept.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink edit
GOOG going for $690! If you can afford it, this is the best time to roll up your callers that have less than $5 premiums to $680 calls that have $13 in premiums at $20 XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 10:11 am | Permalink edit
BA – yes, I think selling the $100s is a good move, you can scale into it whenever you think it looks weak. Your worst day should be having to give your $100 caller his money back with BA over $102!
October 30th, 2007 at 10:15 am | Permalink edit
Oops, downside targes look more important: 13,800 (obviously), 2,800 and 1,530 would be bad along with SOX 455 and RUT 815.
Oil sector taking a dive. Woo hoo on XOM puts and SU puts! GOOG plowing through 690 but GS going nowhere so I’m keeping a tight stop on that one.
I think we’ll hold the downside otherwise GOOG wouldn’t be doing this…
October 30th, 2007 at 10:25 am | Permalink edit
LVS – earnings mania (or maybe the downgrade was a shakeout and earnings will be good, WYNN is still flying).
Nice bottom timing on YHOO Karm!
October 30th, 2007 at 10:34 am | Permalink edit
Film – GOOG is a nice near-term put up here! AAPL too! I know it’s blaspheme but if the market snaps they will snap hard and, as long as you’re not greedy, you can do very well playing them down.
SUN $70 puts for $1.65, stop at $1.50, .25 trailing stop. XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 11:03 am | Permalink edit
YHOO – As a new play you need a spread. Apr $30s are $4.55 (and that’s a roll for those of you in the $32.50s, now $3.45!) and you can sell 1/2 the Nov $30s against them as the $2.10 you get from them would cover a roll to the $27.50s (we’re up .50 on ours so far).
GOOG $670 puts at $7 were $10 this morning and $14 yesterday. You have to DD at $5 and then (with a basis of $6) stop at $4 but I like these looking for $9. XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 11:11 am | Permalink edit
DRYS with a nice sell-off finally! I know chase, chase, chase is a very hard strategy to follow but it’s the correct one in a toppy market (but only for the right stocks! – we don’t chase GOOG or AAPL!).
SU also rewarding the faithful. FWLT just taunting me but I’ve got my 5-day chip for not trading that stock and I’m not going to trade it (my sponsor is standing by).
UTHR determined to test the bottom of our collar!
October 30th, 2007 at 11:27 am | Permalink edit
Alibaba – Karm is right. Why not a word on CNBC about an IPO that was oversubscribed by $180Bn? The big boys are gathering up your shares and this will become the big news of the day when they are ready to move it up.
DNDN giving us another buy opportunity.
SUN/Other oil puts – I wouldn’t chance it, that may be it, get out and be happy with inventories up tomorrow and the Fed there’s too many things that can go wrong. We can watch OIH and, of course that VLO at $71 mark for the first sign of a real turn up before we dump. Watch XLE around $75.50 for direction too but I’m inclined to get out right here. XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 11:37 am | Permalink edit
Rate Cut – it doesn’t matter if it works or not (how is a rate cut of less than 2% going to do anything – see last night’s comments for more on that), a rate cut will rally the markets and we will cash out our calls and wait a week to 10 days for the hangover so we can short the hell out of it.
DIS, SNE, BBY going down – someone thinks the consumer is dead.
BEN still going down! MER still going down! HNSN going down, I’m out of that rumor.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:57 am | Permalink edit
Where would the Dow be if BA wasn’t up $1?
FWLT – I do not play them anymore. They only do whatever you didn’t bet on. I feel like I’m the only buyer and they just mess with me at will. I don’t think they’re worth $120, yet alone $155 but they actually scared me out of betting on them after that last run.
Nice going Film – congrats!
PDF book – isn’t there a link to a pay version? Check the free site, maybe it’s there. Only the pay version can be printed.
BIDU – rolling up to the $390 puts for $10.80 (from the $370 puts) if I can. XXX also, FXI curving down, if they break $212 we could be in for a nice dip. BUT… the Fed, the Fed, the Fed…
October 30th, 2007 at 12:28 pm | Permalink edit
IMCL is bad, I want to study up on them again because I’m not seeing what went wrong.
HET – talk about a slow burn! You’re playing against arb boys who are now playing all the little factors vs the anticipated by price vs the value of the dollar, interest rates, dividends and 100 other things aside from the lawsuit so we’re really just playing this one to cash in on a spike, either by selling the Nov or Dec at better than even or just taking .50 and running.
CFC – I can’t believe people bought that thing because Mozilo said everything looked good to him!
BOOM $50 puts for .75 as TIE and ATI fell down already. 10 for the $10KP and $25KP XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 12:40 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG $640/$670 spread – Gee you want more money AND more time… can I get you a coke with that??? I’d go Mar $680s for $64.60 ($9 back to you) and roll him to the current $690s at $20 ($13 from you) as that is the smart thing to do. You sell him the most premium you can, insulate yourself and if GOOG goes down you can roll him down in Nov or to Dec $680s, now $37.50 and THAT’S when you get your money. If GOOG keeps going higher, when he loses about half his $15 premium you can roll him up to the Dec $700s, now $26, for an extra $10 in your pocket and back to pretty much your original spread with an extra month at no cost.
HXL – let’s keep the protection for now. Ultimately, we’ll roll him to the $25s but not while we still have .30 in premium on the caller (15%).
UTHR – The spread can still be made but we’re kind of close to the lower limit $65 and that’s kind of scary but you get $2.80 on the Nov $60 & $65 put spread and $1.95 for the Nov $80 and $85 call spread which is a .25 risk on a possible $4.75 payoff (between $65 and $85).
October 30th, 2007 at 12:49 pm | Permalink edit
LVS/any spread – once you gain 20% on a spread, unless you plan on making well over 50% and are on track, you should pretty much be ready to take the money and run. If you were to log your trades and realize how many times your trades are up 20% during the month and then compare that to your actual performance, you will often find there is a lot of merit in taking a quick profit off the table.
Rolling a spread – I roll a spread when I think I will do better with my new caller or putter than I will with the current one. There are 100 factors involved and I know for sure that K1 just recently posted a whole collection of comments on rolling so I’m not going to bore everyone here.
GPhone – I’ve heard its a go. Amazing that it can add $5Bn in market cap as a rumor…
October 30th, 2007 at 12:55 pm | Permalink edit
Uh oh – some builders creeping up… That’s a possible sign of an irrational Fed rally in the making…
October 30th, 2007 at 1:40 pm | Permalink edit
MSFT creeping on up.
IMCL making a small comeback. GS is green. TOL is green! YHOO with a nice comeback.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:59 pm | Permalink edit
YHOO chart – honestly I’ve hardly looked at it. I faithfully believe that people were shaken out of that stock prior to a huge move up and I’ve stopped out of my short Nov calls for now. XXX
BOOM – forget it, market turned.
Margin 1/4 pt – I never go into margin anymore so I haven’t asked. When I have the fund up I will have a guy who spends all day negotiating for 1/8 of a point here and there!
HET – don’t question the options, just sell them when you can lock in a sure thing! I’m asking $2.30 for the Nov $90 puts vs my Jans at $2.05
VIX strangle – nice idea but it’s too random and options are expensive. I think I’d go with a straigt up bet, maybe the Dec $20s and sell the Nov $20s as a .70 spread as I think this is the event that’s inflating the front month and we know from experience that it won’t take much to get the Dec $20s in the money within 60 days.
Nas leading the rally, just like before last Fed meeting. Don’t forget the meeting is on now and people could be getting info (or simply feeding rumors).
October 30th, 2007 at 2:10 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG will touch $690 before breaking $700, possibly $685 – that’s what I’m playing for anyway.
October 30th, 2007 at 2:16 pm | Permalink edit
AAPL buying AAPL $200s for $2.05 selling $195s for no less than $3.25, now $3.42. The risk is $3.63, best gain is $1.37 at that price but a breakout could make it much better (plus it caps my callers!) XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 2:32 pm | Permalink edit
WYNN and LVS taking hard turns!
October 30th, 2007 at 2:34 pm | Permalink edit
AMZN getting whacked. That may have been the top kids, smacking my lips looking at GOOG! Sold the Apple calls at $3.50 XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 2:44 pm | Permalink edit
BIDU $360 puts at $12.25 big gamble into a bad Asian morning (I’m liking PTR’s sell-off and FXI is weak all day).
October 30th, 2007 at 2:47 pm | Permalink edit
BWLD – I;; take the bullish Dec $42.50s, sell the $40s (net .15) and sell the Nov $40 puts for $3.25 against the $35 puts at $1.23 (net $2). XXX+
October 30th, 2007 at 2:48 pm | Permalink edit
Sorry, taking $42.50s first!!! Hoping for a bump into close (there was a big run at the open).
October 30th, 2007 at 2:49 pm | Permalink edit
DRYS DRYS DRYS (singing my little DRYS song to the tune of Spam, spam, spam) 
October 30th, 2007 at 2:59 pm | Permalink edit
Water pumping – CNBC was all over it for a while, then lost interest but I think you are right in the timing – It should come back soon.
Exiting DRYs puts by rolliing to the $110 puts at $4, stop at $2 just so I don’t miss anything but that is quite enough money for one day! XXX
October 30th, 2007 at 3:05 pm | Permalink edit
FSLR falling now too – massive profit taking, very interesting.
Now I’m going for the SUN $75s for $1.55 – how’s that for schitzo?
October 30th, 2007 at 3:39 pm | Permalink edit
SLB – I wouldn’t stick with an OIH group put for too long, they whip back hard. Very bad group selling off now like UPS, YRCW, DRYS (still!), SLB… stuff that should be doing well. Even FWLT finally biting the dust. This is a very big bet against not just our economy but the global economy.
Covers for Fed – We have a $138 strangle on the DIAs, about $2 on each side but, if I were hedging, I’d go with an extra batch of stubborn QQQQ $53 puts at .66, looking for .95, out at .45 XXX
TXN – I always like them but we’re letting them settle down for now.
GOOG – here’s my $695 before $700!
October 30th, 2007 at 4:00 pm | Permalink edit
Very surprised to see gold selling off with everything else.
Got stopped out of CSCO that time at $1.80. MSFT still going up!
TINY on the move (cute little buggers!)
DRYS $108!
China sector holding a floor here, not sure what the overnights will bring..
SUN – playing for inventory tomorrow.
DRYS STILL going down!
