November 5th, 2007 at 9:22 am | Permalink edit
BIDU won’t drop that sharply and it’s highly manipulated so be careful. I wouldn’t rush out of all the $360 puts but I would take 1/4 to 1/3 off the table and set stops to take out the rest. Every time you uncover your longs you should really consider putting a stop on them too – just in case. Remember, the PTR play got a stunning response and we still have Alibaba and a few others tomorrow so if the US holds on today, we could get a bounce in Asia tomorrow and BIDU may reflect that optimism today. $360 puts are a long way away!
IRBT – oh please no! I covered them! Waaaaaaaaaaaaah… They were granted an injunction in a lawsuit against an employee that left them and tried to compete with military bots – that’s a big deal!
November 5th, 2007 at 9:29 am | Permalink edit
FXI – PTR and tomorrow’s IPOs should give the market some hope but I’d start going after any China plays that DON’T go down if our markets finish down today because our markets are not going to recover based on a China bounce tomorrow.
BIDU should be able to hold up if GOOG holds up and GOOG has their phone announcement today, which should help them out a bit but, once this is over, what next?
Foget BIDU, what about PTR. How much do you have to earn in a year to be worth $1.1Tn. XOM makes $40Bn with a $500Bn cap, PTR earned $10Bn last Q. I wish I had shorted them on last week’s ridiculous run-up but today they will be caught up in a “sell on the news” dip most likely.
November 5th, 2007 at 9:38 am | Permalink edit
Meanwhile, in today’s market – we lost 2,775 on the Nas already and the S&P blew right past 1,500 and is holding 1,495, that’s the key index on the day.
GOOG is positive but not much else but this is certainly not looking like a panic sell-off so let’s keep tight stops on the puts and start building up the call side of the mattress while they’re cheap. DIA $135s are $2 and we can roll them down for .40 or less. The Dec calls are still too expensive at $4.
November 5th, 2007 at 9:43 am | Permalink edit
BSC $98! GS $220! Such great deals but still hard to buy!
November 5th, 2007 at 9:52 am | Permalink edit
This is very interesting, lots of real buying interest at these levels. AIG, YRCW, CROX – things that are oversold but, on the other hand, IBM still going down, MCO making new loses, MDT getting killed again.
I think money is going to start coming out of oil if this keeps up as it’s the best source of cash for people who want to bottom fish.
November 5th, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink edit
BIDU doing well!
13,400 is very key but 13,500 is psychological and looks to be holding which means it’s time to disconnect the old brains and enjoy the “rally” while we can.
November 5th, 2007 at 10:01 am | Permalink edit
ISM number is UP 55.8 showing growth, that should give us a good kick up, so much for puts! Use stops on callers but be ready to recover if we can’t break up. XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 10:24 am | Permalink edit
Financials still really weak, can’t buy the markets if they are failing.
Deep in the money calls – try to improve yourself by taking some off on a bounce, then you can resell those at a higher strike and work on the remaing callers, it’s a cheap way to practice market timing!
BIDU smashing highs. I rolled to Dec $420 puts at $44, covered with Dec $410 puts at $39 which I will roll to Nov puts if the damn thing ever goes down but, otherwise, they protect me for now and buy me time.
November 5th, 2007 at 10:31 am | Permalink edit
Frankengoogle play goinng well according to plan. Hard to call a top but we need to take $720 very seriously. Just in with 2 Dec $730 calls on the $25KP which opened at $27, now selling 2 Dec $720s for $36 and buying 2 Dec $700 puts (this is a change but they’re cheap) for $22. XXX and we wait for a pullback, still planning to sell the $710 puts with a better than $8 credit(currently $4 credit).
November 5th, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink edit
If you did not start the Frankengoogle play yet, then start to the downside by taking the Dec $700 puts and work into it the oppositite way.
November 5th, 2007 at 10:43 am | Permalink edit
YHOO is flying!
CROX now going down more!
YHOO – kind of scary with PTR’s huge sell-off after a record IPO, I suppose taking 1/2 off is prudent but selling 1/2 the $3.250s at $1.35 is a good alternative that I’ll probably take later.
Qs are coming on strong. Don’t fight the tape!!!
November 5th, 2007 at 11:04 am | Permalink edit
GOOG turning down, this could be a top signal if they start to fall, watch that $720 line closely. XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 11:12 am | Permalink edit
SOX are awful.
CROX – in a good spread you really don’t want a stock to jump 20% while you have it and CROX could do that at any moment. While I agree they are being knocked off like crazy – that certainly hasn’t bothered Nike for 20 years.
November 5th, 2007 at 11:17 am | Permalink edit
Out of DIA calls, back to $135 puts at $1.95 XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 11:26 am | Permalink edit
PTR is a great example of what BS China values are. The company has a $1.1Bn cap in China and is trading at $415Bn in the ADR. Technically it’s the exact same stock – perhaps all of China needs a “mark to market” event so we can discover the true value of these things.
That being said, I see little downside to taking a crack at the Jan $240s for $22.40 and selling the 1/2 the Nov $240s for $8.10 and selling the other half at no less than $7 if it goes further down. The Dec $240s are $17.60 so if they retain $15 of that value at expiration we have a free ride so XXX for 5 in the $25KP.
November 5th, 2007 at 11:35 am | Permalink edit
ARAY – wasn’t that the one I was supposed to look at this weekend?
The tech sounds great and sales are popping but R&D spending is still very high. I don’t have a firm handle on their business plan but it bothers me that their costs are rising rapidly but they have tons of cash, little debt (thanks to a massive stock sale in Q1) and cash flow is in the black.
People are a little too excited about the company and you can sell the Nov $20s for $1.30 against the March $20s for $3.45, which seems way too cheap but that’s a great deal if you can get it (thinly traded). I’d go as high as $2.60 on the spread as it’s plenty of time to deal with the stock going in the money and the downside is nicely limited with a roll to the $17.50s costing just $1.20. XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 11:43 am | Permalink edit
GOOG, huge reverse! The CC is at noon but what I’ve heard about the GPhone does not make me think it justified a 5% run in the stock last week (especially after the 5% run after earnings). We are now in the 10% rule territory which means we can expect a $14 pullback to $709 with little provocation but let’s watch it closely in case it does break up from here. Since I now have 2 open Dec puts and nothing to lose, I can make a mo play on the $760 calls for Nov $6.60 XXX hoping to make a quick buck or 2.
CSCO – me love them long time! Be careful selling the closer calls but, with an ‘09 spread, not a big deal. Just set stops on a % in case it really runs.
November 5th, 2007 at 11:44 am | Permalink edit
PTR – NO! We’re buying the Jans, I’m just looking ahead to Dec for our next sale.
November 5th, 2007 at 11:51 am | Permalink edit
IMCL – I really like them down here. $4.80 is just .70 less than what we paid so no DD on the Jan $40s. If they had $42.50s to sell I’d be thrilled to DD and sell but they don’t and it’s not worth it with the others.
FrankenGOOG – rolling $700 put to $710 put for $4.40 XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 12:50 pm | Permalink edit
CCJ – No merit to giving him .70 premium to give up your Nov insuarance. You can ask for a roll to Dec at .75, which would be a good deal if it triggers but otherwise, there’s no hurry as the Decembers will appreciate better than the the Novembers on a run up and the Novembers will lose more on the way down.
You have so long to go it’s really not even worth spending time looking at it if you have other positions. Perhaps put a stop on 1/4 at $4, just in case you get a really good run but, if it goes down, you’ll be rolling to Dec $45s, which have a nice $2 premium and $3 of downside protection. You can also trade 1/2 your Nov $45s for 1/4 the Dec $45s for a small hit, hopefully just a buck next week.
DIA puts – let’s see if we hold 13,500 through 2pm, then I might be willing to turn around, not jumping out of these unless we get a real rally but look at NEM and the GDX – bad signals for the dollar. 30-year jumped up too, that indicates money flowing out and it sure isn’t heading into the market…
Europe closed looking like the Dow looks now, a poor recovery off the lows. GS and BSC getting worse, not better and there’s little volume to the buying I see.
CROX – I wouldn’t put fresh money in but if your caller pays for the roll then yes.
November 5th, 2007 at 1:31 pm | Permalink edit
FrankGOOG – waiting patiently with my open Dec $710 puts, $760 booked $1 profts so right on plan so far.
IRBT – ALLWAYS sell into the initial excitement!
Markets holding the floor, AGAIN, gold still up but Nas is in better shape than last test so let’s just watch the S&P and the Dow for signs at 13,500 and 1,500. IF we blow both then we are right on my morning prediction where the Nas will follow and the QQQQ $55 puts at $1.44 make a nice mo play with a stop at $1.30 and be very happy once you get past a dime. XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 1:37 pm | Permalink edit
PTR – risky but yes. All trades should be scaled into, I’m accumulating down here.
FCX – you should be careful as copper took a nasty downturn.
FSLR – earneings were supposed to be 10/31 – that’s why I keep a lot of coverage on mine, who know’s what they’re up to?
Qs are a go (gambling now as we didnt’ get a dow confirm but a whole loat of my watch list fell including Goog)! DIA mattress $134 puts at $1.72 XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 1:45 pm | Permalink edit
Don’t forget GOOG $720 is my downside target, let’s not be too greedy as this is working out perfectly! We need to BUY the Dec $690 puts for $16.25 (2 in the $25KP) and then we will sell our $710 puts AND sell 2 more $710 puts to complete this leg for, hopefully $26. XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 1:46 pm | Permalink edit
GS diving again!
November 5th, 2007 at 1:54 pm | Permalink edit
ISRG – I can only hope it comes down one day.
IMCL – I agree, it’s way too cheap but it goes back to don’t think you need to buy on the dips, we don’t know what a dip is yet!
HOLY COW on PTR!
November 5th, 2007 at 2:02 pm | Permalink edit
Like I said on the puts – don’t be greedy, now we need to watch upside of 1,495 and 13,500 but if Nas fails 2,775 we are more likely going down. We already lost 30 of the 60 Nas points I predicted this morning but I expect 2,750 support.
November 5th, 2007 at 2:23 pm | Permalink edit
Yet another day I wish I was still shorting FWLT!
Oil not making it back to $95 despite NYMEX shenanigans.
GOOG bouncing back but I’m satisfied with the fills we have so I don’t want to play the middle if we don’t have to.
GS rumor is almost certainly BS but unless companies come out and actively deny in this environment, we’re going to trade on rumors. Even the Bloomberg article says $13Bn of sub-prime. They’ve already done a major write-down and, with those earnings, they had no reason to hold back as they were going to get a buy this Q anyway but next Q they would be taken out and shot if there was more to write down – that’s a risk/reward for management that makes no sense.
PTR – I’d go bracket down on the same spread. If this is the legitimate value differential between China and US on the same equities then we are going to make millions shorting China. YHOO is getting hammered back down on that premise (that the IPO won’t be worth what we think).
November 5th, 2007 at 2:25 pm | Permalink edit
S&P not holding 1,495 = BAD!
November 5th, 2007 at 2:44 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG – the original play was:
Buy GOOG Dec $730 calls for $24.70
Sell GOOG Dec $710 calls for $33.60 (credit $8.90)
Buy GOOG Dec $690 puts for $19.80
Sell GOOG Dec $710 puts for $28 (credit $8.20)
As GOOG was going up we took the calls first, then covered, then bought the $700 puts, then rolled those up as it went the wrong way. Now, with a proper turn, we made money on our puts and go back to our original plan and buy the $690 puts (the position we really want). Once the downward mo on GOOG dies we sell the $710 puts we picked up earlier PLUS 2 more puts to completed the put side of the spread. Oh year, we also made a buck on the $760 calls earlier but they’re gone already.
So we now have 2 of each call and the $690 puts we wanted and $710 puts we don’t really want but boy, what a ride and we should have a $2 trailing stop on those to sell the $710s we have for a proft and then sell 2 more to cover the full spread. This is working out insanely well so far!
November 5th, 2007 at 2:55 pm | Permalink edit
QQQQ – not guilty, I’m pretty well balanced so I’m just messing around with quick hits. Qs are done though!
GOOG – $730 calls were covered with $710 calls.
Wow, nice bounce! You’ve got to be really quick in this market! I don’t see much strength to it though but we took back the levels so that’s that…
November 5th, 2007 at 3:01 pm | Permalink edit
GS denies rumor and stock doesn’t bounce?
November 5th, 2007 at 3:04 pm | Permalink edit
Cool Rmyadsk! That’s why I’m trying to teach these things, they’re the single best ways for smaller players to try to double up without risking too much.
GS Jan $220s for $19.40, you’ll get a nice premium on Nov bounce or no bounce and Dec has huge premiums too. XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 3:14 pm | Permalink edit
PTR – still liking those Jans! Leg in for sure, that’s the whole fun part…
November 5th, 2007 at 3:22 pm | Permalink edit
CY – that’s a little too much protection! If you can afford it, sure roll him up, you can always roll him back if it heads down. Personally I’d take that much money to DD my Mar (not Apr, right?) $30s at $7.80 into 2x the $35s at $4.70 and roll my caller to 2x the NOV $35s at $1.65 and THEN roll him to Dec to pick up another $2 next week.
What a comeback! Great entry on GS.
November 5th, 2007 at 3:34 pm | Permalink edit
PTR again. Nice safe(ish) play taking Jan $195s for $45.30 and selling Nov $230s for $13 covers all but $3 of your premium with good downside protection you can roll down for $5 3x before you are on par with caller and Dec $230s are $22.25 making a VERY nice, very dull play to get into. XXX
November 5th, 2007 at 3:38 pm | Permalink edit
WIND – remind me later, sounds like a good idea.
Giving up on rolls – just like a bad trade, you just have to realize at some point you’d be better off spending time and tying up money on something else.
Dow positive – totally amazing, based on GS saying there’s no additional debt (we already know they are smarter than the other guys).
November 5th, 2007 at 3:56 pm | Permalink edit
YHOO – covered with 1/2 Dec $32.50s at $2.20 xxx
November 5th, 2007 at 3:58 pm | Permalink edit
I’m back to neutral for the close with DIA $136 puts balancing out my open calls but as close to neutral as I can be – China could go either way tomorrow.
