November 6th, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink edit
This is a dollar crash rally, not my favorite kind but let’s just switch off our brains and see if we can break our technicals (ironic how we had technical difficulties on the site today..)
November 6th, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink edit
YHOO – CEO testifying before congress about something. Roll down, their stake of Alibaba is worth $50Bn if that price holds up. That will make YHOO the new CY, where the stock they own is worth more than their whole company.
Oil going totally nuts, might make good shorts on a bad inventory but not today!
November 6th, 2007 at 10:09 am | Permalink edit
FSLR – I took out my caller on that last dip as he was totally annoying me. Very lucky. If you have the June/Nov spread and you can afford it, roll him up to the $165s for $11 as that’s $9 more in premium to capture, once it calms down, you can roll him to Dec whatevers.
DNDN – we beat the caller, that was our goal, now we wait. There’s no point in giving the caller a nickel.
November 6th, 2007 at 10:13 am | Permalink edit
Buiders – I’m staying away. At these prices they are just maipulated tools.
YHOO coming back – silly markets.
November 6th, 2007 at 10:14 am | Permalink edit
This is the worst rally I’ve ever seen: WFMI, SHLD, UPS, STX, LVS, SNDK, YHOO, AXP, EBAY, IBM, C (still)… lots of things going down that shouldn’t.
Something that should be going down is BIDU and there she goes!
November 6th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink edit
Feds – I said to Jared this morning “But I have to warn people not to fall for this rally!”
ISRG – you could take him out as a mo play and see what happens but if they are rejected at $320 you’ll be very sorry. I would leave it.
November 6th, 2007 at 10:20 am | Permalink edit
TRMP moving a bit, they are a constant buy-out rumor. I’m going to take the Jan $7.50s for .70 for fun, see what happens.
November 6th, 2007 at 10:33 am | Permalink edit
FrankenGoogle – $18 credit, sure! We’re way at the upper end on that one so I’m not going to add to it right now, we’ll see if we can roll it later.
Moving to puts – staying more or less neutral but taking off profits where I can, very nasty market so far.
LULU – I don’t like picking up high flyers on a sentiment change. Some day’s it’s smart to wait and see what the markets do, this may be one of those days.
Anonymous – I have no clue.
Without the financials, this rally is toast.
Right now it’s one of our famous commodity rallys as the dollar dies. Woopie, what should we buy? BIDU in a power dive now!
November 6th, 2007 at 10:38 am | Permalink edit
Oh the heck with it, taking 2 more GOOG $690 puts for $14.20 for FrankenGoog in $25KP XXX
November 6th, 2007 at 10:50 am | Permalink edit
Fredrang – I think there’s some kind of place where you set an identity. I’m scared to go there myself for fear of becoming anonymous, otherwise I’d test it.
BIDU bouncing off $400, let’s see if it sticks.
Speaking of reality, markets are negative. I’m off the DIA calls and pressing the $136 puts at $2.20 XXX
November 6th, 2007 at 10:58 am | Permalink edit
FSLR going down! Grabbing the $155 puts for $5.20, stop at $4.50 XXX
November 6th, 2007 at 11:07 am | Permalink edit
SHLD – absolutely roll down if your caller is paying for it but if we have a really bad day today, it may be a while before we get a good bounce.
BIDU with perfect 1% retrace (20%) off 5% rule back at $40, will be interesting to see what happens around this mark. Buying $420 CALLS for $12.75, will sell $400 calls as a mo play, can alwasy sell $400s against. XXX
November 6th, 2007 at 11:15 am | Permalink edit
Oil up $2.63 for the day!
FCX – should come back here, copper is recovering on dollar weakness but back at 76 on the dollar there is a danger that someone will step in to prop it up. Once we go below 76, you can use a dartboard to pick winning commodity plays.
VLO – I’d bet that CC down frankly. I’ve got Jan ‘09 $80s and I’m covering them here with the $70s as I don’t see how they are going to project well unless they plan on charging $4 a gallon for gas next Q.
HSY – I wouldn’t bet on discretionarys here, tempting though they may be.
YHOO – I do like a Yahoo entry here and I do like shorting GOOG here (albeit just our little fun play) as a new $30Bn competitor in China that already has a native market share is effectively jeopardizing 25% of GOOG’s potential market – possibly more if you count Japan and possibly more if you give Yahoo some credit for being able to leverage this down the line.
November 6th, 2007 at 11:20 am | Permalink edit
BIDU – Raising stop to $13, either they pay me or they don’t! I agree with DM – very ugly, not worth playing today, just looking for things to cash out.
Doesn’t this “bad news in China” crap seem to have interesting timing to you guys. Remember when the IPhone came out and Jobs was crimalized over stock options. This is how Cramer and his pals get you out of a good stock…
SU – you can’t short them with oil at $96, they make a fortune. Plus, nat gas is going down, also good for them.November 6th, 2007 at 11:25 am | Permalink edit
Watch NYSE at 9,999, if they don’t break up I doubt the rest will. S&P 1,505 of course, Nas 2,775 is bad to the downside (especially with all these hot performers and upgrades today).
Wow, check out MNTA – Ah, the joy of biotech!
VLO – if what they are saying is true then A) TSO is being driven up for all the wrong reasons as that has nothing to do with them and B) there’s no shortage of oil!
November 6th, 2007 at 11:47 am | Permalink edit
VLO – yeah, buying back stock – whatever they do don’t build a refinery! VLO is a totally superior company to TSO and their capacity to accept that very sour crude makes them a winner in any market.
The market looks like one of those really pathetic guys who doesn’t know when he’s being rejected and it keeps going after these levels that are way out of its league. Very sad to watch…
November 6th, 2007 at 11:52 am | Permalink edit
Retail – well unless teenagers stopped eating in order to buy clothes (and with girls that is possible) then the terrible restaurant sales should translate to terrible retail sales, especially as mall chains like CAKE took such a beating. I really just can’t see playing anything up until we break 13,600 at least – or am I setting my goals too high?
CSCO at ATH!
MA just broke $200!
Sold BIDU $420 puts for $35, now $31 against my longs.
November 6th, 2007 at 11:57 am | Permalink edit
C – unless you are betting on the collapse of this country, going long on C is a good play. You can buy the ‘10 $35s for $8 and sell the Nov $35s for $1.20 and then sell the Dec $37.50s at $1.28 and it will only take you 6 months to own them for free. Who turns this down? The trick is to enter in stages, maybe 25% of your target per month so you can make adjustments if necessary but that ROI is amazing. XXX straight to the LTP.
November 6th, 2007 at 12:09 pm | Permalink edit
CSCO – OK, 52-week high then! At some point we need to stop counting that nonsense last decade…
GS re-denying rumors of a write-down. That gave us a push yesterday, maybe they can deny it every day at lunch!
C falling – that’s fine if you’re selling $35 calls! We can always roll down, I’ll be fine if I end up owning ‘10 C $20s becasue if they aren’t worth $20 then it’s time to learn Chinese and move anyway.
November 6th, 2007 at 12:31 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG flying now.
Sellers ran for the hills on GS announcement but I still want to see some breakups. HOV says he sees a bottom but I’m not sure people are buying it.
Ni hui jiang yingyu ma? Wo shi mei guo ren – Wo fingbudong. Or something like that!
FSLR – doesn’t look like it wants to go up either, we’ll see how this run goes but I really think they will curl over by the afternoon. I think the sellers took a lunch break, floated the GS denial to spark the markets (and yes, one of the sellers is GS) and are now waiting for all the retail buyers to go “bargain hunting” on their lunch breaks so they can rip it back down in the afternoon. (just a guess).
CY going parabolic trying to keep up with SPWR.
November 6th, 2007 at 1:01 pm | Permalink edit
$10KP:
LVS – Selling $110s for $4.60, rolling Jan $135s to $115s for $5.50.
PFE – DD on $25 calls for .05 (new basis .12, sell all there).
T – Rolling Apr $45s to Dec $40s for .50. Rolling Apr $45/Jan $42.50 spread down to Apr $42.50/Jan $40 for a small credit.
HMY – shoving Dec $10s to Nov $10s cost .30, expecting a small sell-off on a dollar bounce off 76.
TSO – praying it finishes right here!
$25KP Same as above plus:
MSFT – buying back Dec $37.50s, considering rolling to $35s if it goes lower but I think that’s it.
SHLD – buying back $135 caller at $1.75. Rolling all Mar $140s to Mar $130s for $4 and selling $130s against all 4 positions for $3.20 but hoping for better before end of day.
NFLX – fine with our DD position but make sure you do if you didn’t already (rolling both $25s to 2x $27.50s)
GOOG – on the open GOOG puts, we need to cover them, even if it’s a bad deal by eod. Right now the spread between the Dec $690 puts and the Dec $710 puts is just $7, that’s too low. Perahps we can sell current $690s against, remind me later.
November 6th, 2007 at 1:08 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG – since we have the open put in the $25KP, lets grab the $740 calls for $14.80 with a stop at $14 as a mo play, looking for $16.25 XXX
November 6th, 2007 at 1:09 pm | Permalink edit
Oh sorry, forgot to mention. If you don’t want to day trade the $25KP (requires you to keep $25K in the account) don’t take the side bets on Frankengoogle as they are all mo plays!
November 6th, 2007 at 1:15 pm | Permalink edit
T – we shorted it too (sold calls against)
YHOO is out of both the $10KP and $25KP, made too much to risk. What are you left with?
November 6th, 2007 at 1:19 pm | Permalink edit
T – I would wait on the sell side or sell 1/2 at most. To me it’s one that should bounce if the markets can claw back. Notice my $10KP and $25KP plays were generally bullish, it seems to me that we’re holding our floor and I don’t think we’re going to get any downside shocks (what could be more shocking than C writing of mega-Billions?) but a slow steady bleed if we’re heading down. On the other hand, a word from Paulson or Bernanke or Greenspan (if he decides to turn the market) could send us flying up. Path of least resistance is up at the moment but, on the whole, I’m staying pretty neutral.
November 6th, 2007 at 1:25 pm | Permalink edit
YHOO – it costs .50 to roll to the Dec $30s, if Yahoo doesn’t pop before then it’s over anyway. You can fund that roll by selling 1/2 the Nov $30s for $1.25 with a $1 premium.
Lunch is winding down and we’re touching our critical levels: 13,600, 1,510, 2,800, this should be fun!
November 6th, 2007 at 2:16 pm | Permalink edit
HXL – I keep hoping for a bigger sell-off but I won’t pay him a .30 premium for no reason as I only have to bite the bullet and roll him up anyway.
Nov $135 puts – rather than DD it’s really time to roll to December. That reminds me, GENERAL NOTE: All November contracts that you hold should be out of your folder by tomorrow. That’s why these channels are nice for selling puts and calls. Your callers and putters can stay as long as you are confident that you will take them out and not let them expire in the money next friday but DO NOT leave yourself in November positions (except a mo play) unless you have an amazingly good reason to.
Man this market is one persistant guy! I guess he never sat through one of those “No means no” seminars at work…
That’s a triple break up – BIDU’s going the wrong way as is BA, AXP, EBAY, IBM, LVS, MSFT, YHOO, SNDK, SHLD…. same as this mornign so let’s watch this group for signs of a real rally.
November 6th, 2007 at 2:28 pm | Permalink edit
Energy is 20% of S&P and is up 3% so that’s +.6% of all market movement attributable to energy. Market move is…. .2% on the Nas, .5% on the Dow and .5% on the S&P. Add to that the fact that the dollar is testing all-time low of 76 and I am still inclined to short until we get a definitive breakout.
BIDU back at $400.
COH discounting – that is a really bad sign.
FrankenGOOG – absolutely take either leg if you can get + $10! Just wait on the put spread but the idea is to buy very lightly and we work into the next set after getting one good one. At $11 or better that’s an XXX on 2 more in the $25KP with the $690 put still uncovered. Our goal is to never do worse than a $17.10 total spread.
November 6th, 2007 at 2:52 pm | Permalink edit
Buyers may be done here, watch GOOG closely.
November 6th, 2007 at 3:16 pm | Permalink edit
Oops, Nasdaq perking up, been too tough to call all day.
CAKE – I hope you sold something against them at some point! The Jan $25s look kind of hopeless but, if you have margin, you can sell $22.50s against them for .40 and, if the stock takes off, you spend .90 to roll yourself down to the Jan $22.50s and then your first caller paid half of it. Once you roll him, you should be in decent shape (or at least better than where you are now. You could also leave yours where they are, buy the Apr $22.50s for $2.22 and sell the Dec $22.50s for $1 and your remaining Jan calls act as an upside stop. By the time you roll those to Jan, you should have collected your $2 back.
CHK – I took the money and ran. They’ve shaved production to keep prices up so who knows what earnings will look like. Also, I’m pretty sure they unhedged, which turns out to be a mistake with no hurricanes.
AAPL is being goosed along with many big names but there are a hell of a lot of sellers at the resistance levels. I will be impressed if they hold $190.
CROX way down.
November 6th, 2007 at 3:43 pm | Permalink edit
Oh – I forgot about CSCO tomorrow! This is some sort of expectation of a big tech rally.
FSLR – SPWR makes me nervous on this play but I’m going to hold it because I’m light on the put side.
Irrational – we can’t think like that, if the market breaks up tomorrow we have to say Yee-Haw and BUYBUYBUY until we get technical signals to cash out.
BKX up 1.5%, that’s the first time in a long time. AIG rockin’
CY is still nowhere near reflecting the run in SPWR, I think we have to buy more CY if SPWR breaks $150 and holds it.
Oil at $95+ justifies 150% more solar projects than oil at $80, solar is a better play on high oil than oil is. Damn, someone just hit a buy program big time!
November 6th, 2007 at 3:46 pm | Permalink edit
C – I would just buy the stock at this price. I don’t see it going lower and you can always sell the Jan $35 calls to cover yourself.
November 6th, 2007 at 3:52 pm | Permalink edit
CSCO – we bought them on the 26th,Dec $32.50s for $1.40. I took out the $32.50 calls I sold for a small loss and I’m selling 2/3 the current $35s ahead of earnings (not that they’ll help much on a miss).
Well we broke out on the techichals. Taking strangle of DIA $137 puts at $2.06 and 2x $137 calls at $1.28, should be fun.
November 6th, 2007 at 3:55 pm | Permalink edit
FrankenGoogle – I got killed waiting on the put side and I”m goign to spend $6 to roll the Dec $690 puts up to Dec $710 puts and wait until tomorrow to see what needs to be done about it but it was not a pretty entry today.
November 6th, 2007 at 4:05 pm | Permalink edit
Gold at $28 year high, oil at 20-year high, Dow at 13,666… So hard to switch off my brain but we have to follow the herd for the duration.
Well, time to dust off the old rally cap and hope we can follow through tomorrow.
AAPL – what an amzing stock and company!
