November 7th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink edit
Hey I was assigned HET too. No biggie, that cancels your putter and all you have to do is sell the shares, I’m hoping for $88, which would give me a very nice profit on the trade. If you get in trouble, you can always turn around an use your puts to put the stock to someone else at $90.
November 7th, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink edit
Notice this sell-off has no teeth either – we are so rangebound!
November 7th, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink edit
Welcom David and thanks!
CSCO – people will be shocked if they miss. I sold 2/3 $35s yesterday but I will take them out if I get a good price and risk earnings but it’s a small play for me.
GOOG alredy positive, BIDU flirting with positive, YHOO a disaster, need to roll down again and possibly sell 1/2 $27.50s but I’d rather not.
CHK – too dicey to call. I believe they are unhedged and gas is lower than they thought it would be. Also they cut production to boost prices and it didn’t work. I had taken them as a hurricane lottery, not because I thought they company would have a good Q, that’s why I got out at the end of last month when the storm season fizzled.
November 7th, 2007 at 10:08 am | Permalink edit
HET – that is one of those cases where it pays to assign, the stock drops hard on poor earnings and there are few buyers so you put them to someone else. I have a sell in on my puts at a premium to where I can sell the stock so if they trigger I just get out of the stock (I don’t have enough shares to sell and force the trigger).
GS – we have to wait for noon, when they will again state they are not writing down more assets.
FSLR/DIA puts – be careful. Although this is part of another dead dollar bounce, you have to admier the way we held up on the morning dive. I’m pretty much staying neutral as long as we stay in this range and that means selling puts and buying calls at 13,500 and buying puts and selling calls at 13,600.
November 7th, 2007 at 10:31 am | Permalink edit
UA – good Cramer stock, you just need to hold it until he makes a mention.
Oil inventories in 15 mins. TSO needs to be shorted and SU will fall hard if there’s a build. They are expecting a 1M+ draw in crude and about a 1.6M total draw.
AAPL – I’d roll up the caller but not the Apr as you may need to roll him back down if they fall (I know, hardly seems likely).
Inventory -800Kb, less than expected but no big deal. Not enough to hit $100 without something else happening.
November 7th, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink edit
CSCO – I would either take 1/4 off the table (assuming you don’t want a lot of risk) or move 1/2 up to the $35s but the market is weak again so don’t hurry into anything, who knows where this wheel will stop spinning?
HET – that was me getting out depressing the stock but, on the bright side, it triggered my price on the puts so it all worked out!
November 7th, 2007 at 11:07 am | Permalink edit
13,500 is so bouncy!
AAPL/GOOG etc.. Any stock that can go up 2% in a day (or worse, overnight) can go down 2% as well. Always consider that when you are giving up protection.
Damn, SU dropping faster than I thought. Drawdown was in-line so I can’t imagine what it would take to make these guys happy.
CVX – rolling down is a very good idea there, lock in the profit.
November 7th, 2007 at 11:08 am | Permalink edit
AXP $60 calls settlement! XXX
November 7th, 2007 at 11:11 am | Permalink edit
Oops, they have $57.50s, those are good too at $1.45. From the $60s, if you can get them for .40 you really want to be 1/2 out at .60 with a tight stop.
November 7th, 2007 at 11:14 am | Permalink edit
CNBC said AXP settled a $2Bn lawsiut but I see no confirmation so the premise may be false, let’s be careful…
November 7th, 2007 at 11:54 am | Permalink edit
AXP – offering to DD at $1.10, no takers…
Frankly I’m very surprised this isn’t sending them higher fast. The settlement is bigger than the biggest damages ever awarded, AXP “only” earns $3.5Bn a year and this also opens up markets to them as Visa (and soon MA) will be forced to level the playing field. Then there’s the MA half of the suit, should settle for another $2.5Bn as MA would be nuts to roll the dice in court while AXP would be nuts to take less than that now that they got it from Visa.
Now this is a really good example because the stock is being held down for technical reasons even though the fundamentals have clearly changed. I will roll to Dec if this doesn’t pay off by tomorrow but $57.50 is not that far away.
Don’t forget CSCO – can we still get a tech rally tomorrow?
YHOO – I rolled to the $30s, not DD, better to sell with.
November 7th, 2007 at 12:06 pm | Permalink edit
AMZN – be careful. High gas and depressed consumers = record web shopping this year.
PTR – I’m in the Jan/Nov $220s, that caller is still $9 so he stays, I’m only down .50 so all is well there. I would roll those $230s down to the $220s.
There has always been commodity speculation, whether sanctioned or not.
SU – I’m happy with the short spreads on them, let someone else pay the premium.
November 7th, 2007 at 12:14 pm | Permalink edit
TXN – love them, always good to buy on sale but go long.
Oops, there go lower levels, getting ugly now. Finally ISRG is coming down a bit!
November 7th, 2007 at 12:17 pm | Permalink edit
Watch GOOG, they are still the straw that will break the market’s back if they go down.
I can’t belive how low YRCW is, that’s a big sign of US prospects.
SPWR falling, FSLR may be next.
COVER, CASH, COVER, CASH!!!
November 7th, 2007 at 12:35 pm | Permalink edit
Rolled AXP to Dec for $1.60
LTP – any ‘09/’10 play is still valid but pick one we haven’t made too much money in. VMW – you should at least roll him down a few, his calls are worthless and not protecting you at all. Why not roll yourself down to the $105s and sell the $110s to pay for it?
AXP – was mailed to me. I get a ton of rumor mail, usually ignore it.
Wow, look at BXP and VNO fly down – we know that’s a bad sign!
VLO tanking too, TSO still not facing up to reality. SU hanging tough.
BSC – I like them as long as you’re selling against them. Naked is crazy but I love rolling down until we have to buy out our caller and then we can let it go back up.
FSLR – I do have a prejudice against stocks that have to justify a double at earnings but the 2/1 play makes sense.
I think we bottom here, it will be fairly bullish if we hold it again but, with the weak dollar, this weekend will be spent analyzing all the warts of our economy so the trick will be making it through there.
Gold breaking down, stopping out of those too, may reenter later but nothing is safe in this market!
November 7th, 2007 at 12:51 pm | Permalink edit
YHOO – there’s no reason not to cover, just set a reasonable stop in case it turns up. I still see no new issues here, just a lot of YHOO bashing on a massive scale. Go back to last thanksgiving and check out the “Apple is doomed” discussions that went on for weeks as Apple fell from $92 to $80 and Reinharden and I had to repeat every single day that we still liked them and we were still buying them. We know how that story ends.
HXL – tough to break a major level in this environment, once we get into next week there should be major pin action.
FXI – how is BIDU keeping it together?
Markets not keeping it together, turning very ugly! GOOG went red!!
November 7th, 2007 at 12:56 pm | Permalink edit
YRCW – I remmeber that coversation, thanks for talking us out of it. I’m getting really concerned here as we are failing all sorts of levels. If the Nas breaks 2,775 we are probably a long way from recovery.
Now is the time to take a chance on GS. Taking the Dec $220s for $14.60, no stop, I will sell current $220s if I can get $10 or the $210s if they fall to $10. XXX
November 7th, 2007 at 1:11 pm | Permalink edit
PTR – Puts or calls? I was talking calls. I also had the Dec/Nov $240 put spread but the put side stopped out and I’ll be killing the uncovered Decembers later. Oops, the $25KP one? I forgot about those! It’s the same deal there’s a $3 roll to the $230s so we absolutely take that bt the caller can be taken out at $2.50 and we’ll hopefully sell the $230s on a good bounce. XXX for $25KP
November 7th, 2007 at 1:16 pm | Permalink edit
SU puts are smokin’ now!
November 7th, 2007 at 1:27 pm | Permalink edit
-275! Nas broke, pary may be over. I wish I had shorted more but I’m thrilled to be even and moving to cash righ now (not that cash is a good place to be since it’s in dollars!).
Oil DOWN $1.50, gold dropping fast. Trading curbs are in and Bernanke speaks tomorrow…
GROW would be nice with a bigger sale.
November 7th, 2007 at 1:43 pm | Permalink edit
Dylan saying that Cuomo (NY AGeneral)’s investigation I was saying was a big deal the other day is actually a big deal as the probe widens to include the other (very guilty) financials. See, sometimes my little rants are important! 
Big volume bars are good, I think we’re finding a level we can at least rest at.
Calendar spreads – it’s better than you think because your caller are still benefiting from an expanded VIX (back at 25) and when that falls, that will be the other shoe for Nov and Dec contracts.
Here comes GS. BSC may have found a bottom, pathetic though it may be at $96
13,400 makes sense. 1,470 is our must hold on S&P with 1,505 in the comfort zone, Nasdaq is still good over 2,750, that would be the critical failure but the SOX are death and the Russell is no help so the drag is very much down. If something doesn’t turn us up tomorrow, we may blow through 13,300 and test 13,000 before the week is over.
Meanwhile, we may as well guess this is a bottom since DIA Dec $134 calls are just $4.28 and we can sell Nov $134s for $2, that’s a great spread but you have to stop out 25% of the Novembers every .25 up. XXX
November 7th, 2007 at 2:12 pm | Permalink edit
FSLR – I would stay put, it would take quite a catastrophe for you to drop $12 and your caller would immediately go worthless and you could roll him to Dec whatevers and stay safe. You could also just buy the $140 puts for $1.50 as it would take that kind of drop to even begin to touch you but you have plenty of time to adjust.
AXPs – yes but hoping to make up some of that premium with a Nov sell if we ever get a bounce.
GRMN – this is no place to go bottom fishing. Just keep it on a watch list for when the market turns up but we broke the wrong end of the range today, at least make sure we get back to 13,500.
GSK – lots of things to add if we get a nice bottom (that’s what we wait for). LTP still up.
Speaking of longs – IMCL doing very well the last couple of days. Still just .40 over our entry on the Jan $40s ($5.90).
HMY is still a gift at this price. It’s worth spending .60 to roll the Jan $10s to the May $10s XXX for $10KP and $25KP.
November 7th, 2007 at 2:30 pm | Permalink edit
BMY – that’s exactly the kind of play we look for! When it stops behaving, we get out but it could be a long ride with those guys.
C – absolutely at this price. Just added to LTP. The “safe” play on C is:
Jan ‘09 $55 puts are $20.77, Stock is $34.33, that’s $55.10 for a guaranteed $55 in Jan ‘09. ZERO risk (well, OK, .10 risk). You don’t even have to sell puts, you’ll collect $2.16 (5%) from the stock and you can sell Dec $37.50s for $1.04 and that right there X 6 would be $6.24, another 10% and C would have to jump almost 10% in 40 days for you to even have to roll the caller. So that’s 15% with virtually no risk. If you want to get fancy you can certainly get another $5 selling puts (current $32.50 puts are .52, Decembers are $1.37) for another 5%. It’s dull but maybe you get a free toaster…
That was easy, cut and past from last time someone asked.
GOOG positive again – we’re saved!
November 7th, 2007 at 2:37 pm | Permalink edit
HMY – not filling yet but rolling my calls, not the caller!
CROX held up nicely last 2 days.
November 7th, 2007 at 2:41 pm | Permalink edit
Poole says maybe December rate cut – yeah that’ll fix things!
November 7th, 2007 at 2:55 pm | Permalink edit
Well guys, I’ve got to go. It’s my 9th anniversary today!
Take care of the markets for me. I’m still liking gold, ESPECIALLY with another rate cut.
