November 8th, 2007 at 8:58 am
CSCO is totally a buy at $30.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:39 am
CSCO – waiting to see what the market does. We are in no hurry to buy the ’09s as we want to sell the $32.50s and until they are worth something it’s no biggie to us.
RTP $440 puts for $11.45, stop at $10 XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 9:46 am
Ouch on GOOG and BIDU!
C – dangerous to assume they can’t bounce and you have 13 months to sell. Greedy is right!
PTR – late but absolutely should cover. Do not put more money into this trade as China may pop big-time
BID getting clobbered. Art aution went poorly, $270M vs. $355M expected. If the high-end buyers are cutting down things may be worse than they seem.
I’m having a really hard time filling puts. Bad sign!
November 8th, 2007 at 9:48 am
RTP $440 puts are RTPWS but not filling at all, probably that’s why, they haven’t pushed out to enough systems yet. OXPS has em, bless their efficient little hearts!
November 8th, 2007 at 10:05 am
DNDN looking very pathetic but a fun gamble at .17 on the Jan $7.50s, maybe spend the extra dime for Febs…
FSLR $150/165 – Roll the June $150s to 2X Mar $200s and roll him to 2x Dec $200s. That gives him $15 in premium and your position is 2/3 covered. XXX
Hey Ben must have read my article on sub-prime resets, that’s what he’s saying to Congress right now.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:19 am
AUY – I sold the $15s but I’m way ahead. Will stop them out of course, stopping out all callers (that are up 50%) down here if they retrace, no sense being greedy. XXX
The spin on CNBC is incredible! I have to look up at least once every 10 minutes to see what the hell they are talking about when they say “rally” “recovering” “strong sector” “turning around”… really amazing the way they try to push this. Markets go down, it’s good and natural, let it go!
DIAs – sadly not enough, I have 200 $135 puts, and 100 $137 puts and 150 Dec $135 puts and no calls left at all as the ones I bought yesterday stopped out on that last dip and I wasn’t around to re-cover (which is now a good thing).
GS – they were supposed to be covered if the $210s hit $10 but I hit the button when I had to go yesterday at $11.50.
COH – I like them but it’s hard to buy right now. Still Ben is testifying so the market could rally at any moment but if he doesn’t give happy news by lunch, we could be in for a very bad afternoon. Due to my short balance on the DIAs, I’m covering with DIA $133s at $1.75 and will, of course be stopping out on my deep puts. XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 10:29 am
RSTO – LOL, that’s a double congrats because I DD’d on that silly sell-off (as I sold almost all my other stocks, it was the only thing left uncovered. I’m out at $6.50! I told you guys they were way undervalued…
RTP – it’s a mo play, at this point you should stop at $13 and raise your stop $1 for each $1 you gain.
WFR – isn’t long and short 2x the same as just x? WFR going hog wild.
With the $70s for about $3 you can double up to the Apr/Jan $80s or you can effectively kill the trade by going to the Jan $60s for + $3 and putting him in the Jan $65s for + $5, which nets you $2 now and (most likely) $5 in Jan. For + $3 you can also just go right to the Dec $60s which should net you $7 in Dec.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:30 am
Wow – GOOG going WAY down!
November 8th, 2007 at 10:42 am
Holy cow, I keep wanting to cover that naked GOOG put in the $25KP and it keeps going down! Have to buy $690 puts for $22 for Frankengoogle. XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 10:56 am
If I miss questions feel free to ask as I’m rolling a lot of stuff this morning. GOOG is amazing, BIDU fantastic. RTP looking like it will be a gold mine. FSLR still going up!
Out of DIA puts and hoping for a little rally now. XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 11:06 am
Selling my Dec $710 goog puts in $25KP and selling 2 more $710 goog puts at $35 to complete the second leg of Frankengoogle — IT’S ALIVE!!!
November 8th, 2007 at 11:10 am
ISRG – I am just thrilled that we’re going to get a chance to buy it!
Franken G – since we’re having so much fun, let’s pick up 2 more Dec $730s at $25 XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 11:24 am
TASR – I wouldn’t pay him a .50 premium to take him out but I would buy another 1/4 out a .75 if it starts rallying. I think they’re being pinned to expiration but that’s no reason for you to not sell perhaps 1/2 the Dec $15s if you can get $2 for them on a bounce.
GOOG just bouncing off 2 day 5% rule so don’t get cockey with it!
IBM – What a mess! I’d roll down to the $110s for $2 and sell the $110s for $1.50 or better. If no bounce I’d sell the Dec $110s for $2.50, no less.
FSLR – Good thing you had one open! You roll him to 4x the Dec $200s for roughly even and roll yourself to 5x the mar $190s for about even. Nows a good time because FSLR is curling over. I’m taking $220 puts for $10 as a mo play, stop at $7.50, looking for $13+ XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 11:38 am
FrankenGoog – bought 2 more $690 puts for $30 so I can stop the bleeding on my new call. What the hell?
November 8th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
ISRG – nothing is a buy today!
SPWR/CY heading down.
This doesn’t look healthy at all – make sure you are well covered!
November 8th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
BIDU – roll the Dec $390 to the Nov $380 if you can afford $25, you can get $13 by rolling yourself down to Dec $380s but better to stay. That scalps $10 in premium from him by next week and then you roll him back below you again.
DIA stops – ALWAYS – see K1 article on the subject. Stops are not hard and I generally call major turns if I see them but we are currently in a critical failure mode with the indexes. I’m adding to Decembers puts and I do hope it’s understood that when I’m in and out of puts during the day it’s not the Decembers! I’m in the Dec $133 puts and still have my $135 puts but with .50 trailing stops now that I have the the new puts. The $135 puts are up $2 and I will put money into rolling up the $133s once they are naked.
SHLD – I like them here but everything looks cheap and is getting cheaper. GOOG heading to $690!
Sorry Ron Paul IS my favorite Republican – I just keep forgetting he is one!
Now I have to buy DIA Nov puts again! Lots of $131s at $1.65 XXX with a .25 stop.
November 8th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Spoke too soon, that may have been the bottom now that Ben is done being miserable. I think Ron Paul scared everybody!
November 8th, 2007 at 12:42 pm
Reason for sell off – just all the stuff we’ve been ignoring for 6 months. CSCO saying orders from financials are down makes people freak out that banks losing Billions means there may be other cutbacks — DUH!
There goes FSLR!
Thanks BBD – he’s my favorite since Insana left. Leaseman’s good and Art but sadly, the rest are pretty scary.
GOOG CRASH!
November 8th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
If terror is part of this sell-off then we really want to take an upside hedge for tomorrow.
I cn’t belive BIDU and GOOG are racing each other down!
AXP – Nov? Just cherish the lesson, there’s not much worth doing with them. I rolled to the Dec $57.50s, now $1.95 but I’m not happy with them either.
RTP – I think the whole thing was a sham, just like that ridiculous “offer” from Kirkorian for TSO (and GM for that matter) I’m taking half off or rolling down but not getting out.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Rolled AXP to Jan $55s at $3.90, selling current $55s at $1.50+, will sell Dec $55s for no less than $2.50 if it goes the wrong way but I’m hoping we can hold Friggin’ 13,100!!!
November 8th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
As a rule of thumb, roll down any spread where the roll of the caller pays for 75% of the roll of the longer play. XXX That’s what I’m busy doing! That goes for $10KP and $25KP too!
November 8th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
Rolled my Jan apple $170s to current Apple $160s, hoping for a quick bounce. XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
I’m feeling good about the bottom call here, selling the GOOG Dec $710 puts for (ROFL) $50 to complete that leg and ging DD on the $730 calls at $23 looking for GOOG to come back. That’s 2s in the $25KP FrankenGoogle. XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
I would now endorse very timid buying of ’09s on fun things like AAPL, GOOG, ISRG that are in the money as long as you are willing to roll down if we fail again. XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
Oh sorry, out of all DIA puts, loading on DIA $132 calls at $1.90 XXX Stop at $1.75 and taking a nap if we turn down again!
November 8th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Holy cow we can’t get anything going here!
Like I said, you just have to pack it in if we break 13,100 again. No leadership anywhere.
November 8th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Boy I’m just getting impatient I guess…
Let’s see if GOOG can make it back to down just 5%.
November 8th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
DIA ovenight – we want to end up in a strangle, probably 3/2 weighted down.
This is so frustrating trying to get bullish down here! Made so much on the put side we need to give it a rest though!
November 8th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
All this terror stuff today makes me think this is a massive flush but don’t forget if something actually does happen there won’t be time to cover. That’s why I’m keeping things generally neutral.
November 8th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
I still feel bullish.
I can’t find anything worth selling but I’m scared to buy. Sticking with my guys GOOG, APPL, ISRG, BSC, GS, INTC Jan $25s!, FDX holding $100 nicely, AXP at $55, BA back at $95 is a gift…
November 8th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
Foto – I have to say don’t panic here. What the hell else are they going to say? The Fed just said we’re screwed, Congress just called the Fed incompetant, terrorists are bombing malls and planes, China is down on the dollar, Bush is still President… How can things get worse?
November 8th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Man are they cutting it close at 13,100!
We have a triple test here at 1,450, 13,100 and 2,650 – if we fail that then bet it all on red!
November 8th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
INTC – yes selling calls if we break down but that’s why I’m buying mainly ’09s that I’m willing to roll down (scaling in of course) as they can take another 500 point drop and I’ll still want to buy the guys I just listed.
Cramer says today is a much better day than yesterday!
Gold stocks are tanking now – dollar may be bouncing which could also explain part of market devaluation.
Cramer says that’s it for GS writedowns and I think that’s true, I said at the time they threw in the kitchen sink into last Q and I can’t believe they are lying to the market all week (a jailable offense). I think the selling on GS in particular is way overdone.
November 8th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
ISRG – Was ‘09 $300s now $72
November 8th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
AAPL – watch if they hold $175 through the day’s end, GOOG must retake $700
November 8th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
MSFT still going down.
KMP getting attractive but not buying them. Huge sale on BRCM. LVS with signs of life.
Holy Cow! We’re actully going to be able to close the plus side of the next leg of FrankenGoogle at a great profit!
NYX ‘09 $90s XXX
This is fantastic!
November 8th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
RIMM – I give up on them, that is one crazy stock! Probably breaking out here along with my boys at Apple.
(see how smoothly I switched off my brain?)
November 8th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Woo hoo! Ride em cowboys!
AAPL $181 and I’m in the Nov $160s with no callers!
BG making a move – heck everythings making a move, where’s my dart board?
November 8th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Oh, on a less pleasant note – we do need to cover with DIA puts before the close, don’t wait too long the $133 puts are the best play at the moment and you want to make the offer as we top out. 13,300 should be upside resistance. XXX
I don’t think tomorrow will be bad but I won’t bet my profits on it.
November 8th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
Triple test the other way at 1,475, 13,300, 2,700 – if we break that I’ll be a lot more relaxed.
BSC with a big comeback too.
November 8th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
Cashed Apple at $19.25!
November 8th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
Moving back to AAPL Jan/Nov $180s for $11.50 net XXX
November 8th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
Things turning weaker, gotta cover!
