November 9th, 2007 at 9:40 am | Permalink edit
OK, let’s see if 13,100 can hold!
November 9th, 2007 at 9:44 am | Permalink edit
I took out my GOOG callers but added back $670 callers just in case, will take them out in stages if we go up but it leaves me free to play the upside naked (not for the $25KP though). Picking up $690s at $10 XXX
COH – they are restructuring an no one has patience. I do really like them long-term.
November 9th, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink edit
13,100 holding is huge.
COH – I have the Jan ‘09 $35s but just a small entry.
Below 13,100, 13,000 should be a big bounce spot so we don’t want to go crazy with downside betting either way. When in doubt, CASH!
November 9th, 2007 at 10:10 am | Permalink edit
GOOG $25KP – I assume you mean December calls and the answer to that is roll them down. For $5 you can roll the $730 calls to the $710 calls so let’s do that with the open ones. XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 10:19 am | Permalink edit
IBM/Any $5 roll – try to roll for $2.20 or less. With $10 rolls, try to roll for $3.50-$4. It’s pretty much a no brainer to spend 40% to improve a position, as long as you still believe in the position.
Out of index puts now. XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink edit
QQQQ – longer is better but if you really want it then get it now so you can sell calls against them if it gets put to you.
Very broad buying kicking in but GOOG has to go somewhere if we are going to be serious about this.
APPL/GOOG V – yes these are day trades only! Holding a Nov overnight, especailly over the weekend is crazy.
November 9th, 2007 at 10:36 am | Permalink edit
PTR and CEO both moving up.
JSDA having a strange couple of days.
GSK breaking $50.
As usual, it’s amazing how low our expectations have gotten that we are happy to bounce off 13,100!
YHOO pathetic!
If GOOG doesn’t break $680 by lucnch it may be in serious trouble.
LVS popping.
GOLD looking good (all gold stocks too).
STX coming off the floor, I like the Dec $27.50s XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 10:43 am | Permalink edit
CAT and BA are making me nervous about the whole market.
November 9th, 2007 at 10:50 am | Permalink edit
Uh oh! Things just turned ugly fast!
Need to cover with DIA $130 puts and hope we don’t need to go to the $129s! XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 11:02 am | Permalink edit
IBM I’m content to roll down but yes, it looks very ugly, probably a reflection of the EU knocking 25% off growth forecasts. Japan is contracting. Europe is slowing, we are pathetic – that China growth story can only take you so far…
UNH is moving up anyway. Good call by Sage!
SBUX at new lows. JOE at 52-week low. FSLR getting killed. SPWR down $30 from yesterday, very tempting. May as well pick up Jan $135s at $19.50 and let Nov $140 caller give me $5 and roll down with him if I have to.
November 9th, 2007 at 11:13 am | Permalink edit
BSX another one in the bargain bin.
Rolling GOOG $690s to $680s for $3.30 XXX if $13,000 doesn’t hold it’s time for cash anyway!
Layering DIA puts just in case
November 9th, 2007 at 11:23 am | Permalink edit
Here goes APPL again. $175s for $3.65, stop at $3, looking for $5+ XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 11:30 am | Permalink edit
GS holding up. Actually hauling butt now.
I’m telling you this is a big show for Congress.
CY Jan/Dec – When will you people learn not to play close diagonals? They are way to dangerous! Meanwhile, there’s nothing to fix here, he’s got $1 in premium and you can already roll him tot the Dec $40s for near even so let his premium wear down next week and make the roll. These are very low profit plays, I don’t know what you expected but I’ll bet you were up 20% several times and that’s a great month on these.
November 9th, 2007 at 11:48 am | Permalink edit
GO CROX!
Don’t forget, it’s certainly not even a bounce unless we break 13,100, 2,650 and 1,460 and those are all pathetic numbers. Going the other way we’re looking at 13,000, 1,450 and 2,600 (the Nasdaq has no real support at all).
Let’s keep a close eye on GS, GOOG, AAPL, EBAY and AXP for leadership.
GOOG is currently being crushed between $670 and $675, it will break one way or the other by the afternoon I think. Up I think too.
This is a good time to reflect all the way back to Monday when everyone said GOOG was about to top $800 and was unstoppable and that Apple would never go down and that BIDU was worth $400 a share… Now people are looking down at Apple and saying lower, GOOG lower (BIDU I might agree with). These are not funamentals, this is just sentiment and, in the end, means nothing.
GOOG and AAPL are still the best companies on the planet from a growth perspective. GOOG is untouched by any costs but labor and the labor they hire has it’s own market. Apple is the ultimate importer with a global network of suppliers who would bend over backwards for them because they know that landing a contract to make an Apple product is a goldmine as they virtually never miss.
The trick is to go long and roll down, ultimately, if you buy the GOOG ‘09 $700s for $106 and spend $5 to roll them down 20 times, what do you have? You have the GOOG ‘09 $500s at $205, which currently cost $225. If you sell calls at each leg and collect just $2.50 for each roll, then you’re in the $500s for $155.
Learn to love the dips, being well covered let’s you look ahead to bargain shopping, rather than running in and out of short-term positions.
November 9th, 2007 at 11:54 am | Permalink edit
If this is a play for Congress…do we buy? – Yes, that’s the point. This sell-off has no new information in it so it’s worth a gamble.
CROX Dec $45s – that’s a great deal for $2.20 but I’d go out to Mar $45s for $6 so I have an earnings to sell into. You can buy those and sell the Dec $45s for $3 or more, it’s still $7 away so that will be the least of your problems if it hits. XXX
Ah, here comes GOOG – I LOVE the markets!
November 9th, 2007 at 11:58 am | Permalink edit
INTC irresistable down here. Apr $27.50s for $1.50 XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 11:59 am | Permalink edit
DIA – I have only December puts and my Nov $132 calls which is fine as my stock mix is generally bullish. Will probably balance out at the close a bit. XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 12:06 pm | Permalink edit
Not a bottom call, certainly not ahead of the weekend but I have way too much cash that is devaluing as we speak and some of these stocks (INTC, AAPL, GOOG, AXP, AIG, GS, BSC, TXN, BA, MSFT) are must owns whenever they go on sale.
When you go to the store and a case of your favorite beer is on sale, you buy it right? Why? You may not want one now but you’ve always wanted them before and it’s highly unlikely you won’t want them again in the future. You don’t say to yourself “Gee I bet Guiness made too much so now I don’t want them.” If you KNOW you love something and you know it has a lasting value, then it simply doesn’t make sense not to take advantage of a good deal.
With options, you have to be cognaizant of the time value but that’s why I’m saying go long, sell calls, roll down when you need to. As long as you have a solid book of stocks, there’s always going to be people who will buy your shorter calls.
November 9th, 2007 at 12:17 pm | Permalink edit
We just go from one range to the other, very much a sign of massive indecision.
UNH is flying!
November 9th, 2007 at 12:20 pm | Permalink edit
Home stocks are moving, that is very strange…
November 9th, 2007 at 12:39 pm | Permalink edit
That $10KP is frozen at $35K, I’m scared to touch it it’s so perfectly balanced!
That ATI rumor has legs!
Elaborating – ask me on the weekend.
New GOOG spread is sell the $670s and buy whatever length you can afford against them. They’ve got $13 in premium for a week so it’s hard to miss. AAPL close premiums are not attractive but I’d go long with $175s April+ and just be patient.
BTU breaking ATH.
EBAY proving it deserves to be on today’s watch list. GS still going up.
Let’s see how GOOG handles $678, need to cash our $680s if they can’t take it out as we’re better than even. Maybe 30 mins to break out before it becomes a problem.
November 9th, 2007 at 12:56 pm | Permalink edit
SHLD – sadly, not a must own. This is more of a gamble on Eddie than a play on Sears itself and he’s not running it to please short-term investors so any play you have needs to involve selling calls. They are fun to go long and sell short but, at the moment, the short sell is very dangerous.
Apple VOD – as a parent, I can tell you that the Apple/DIS alliance, if played right will lock in every American family for life if you can just turn on a box and get a channel of on-demand Disney content. If I have a child, I may buy them 30 Disney DVD’s for $600 over the course of their lives but I’d be even happier to no have the clutter and hassle and pay $120 to $200 a year for on-demand Disney content. That’s why both companies are a buy.
GOOG not breaking up, I’m getting out if they can’t hold $673, maybe back in later. XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 1:01 pm | Permalink edit
Yes SHLD is a real estate play! Look at VNO and BXP, that is NOT a hot sector right now.
Damn, GOOG was a sign for the whole market to head back down!
November 9th, 2007 at 1:30 pm | Permalink edit
Nov ATM calls – it’s not that they didn’t drop enough, it’s that the VIX is way up. Just roll them down to where you need them and roll yourself down (as long as your caller is paying for the roll, you have nothing to lose). Never forget, by next Friday he will have 0 premium, no matter what strike he has.
MMM – Analysts don’t understand productivity gains because they never produce anything. Just like my concept of taking small gains often, productivity gains are leveraged by smart management to turn as much work as possible through productive divisions. Suddenly we are supposed to believe 3M is badly managed? I like them down here ($80) but they’re not a top choice.
Speaking of good companys – MCD eems to have found a nice bottom and they are a funny case where you can do better selling puts than calls. The Jan ‘09 $55 puts are $6 and you can sell current $57.50 puts for an outrageous .90, then another $1+ for the Dec $57.50s so XXX on that as un upside down bullish play.
LVS short calls – Still have a huge premium, we’ll roll them when it’s time.
GOOG example at 5% – sure, that would go for any favorite stock but make sure the logic applies, where do you end up if every time you roll down you only get 50% of what you sell calls for?
SHLD – Jan $130s/Dec $135s is a free spread with $5 margin. I like that as an earnings play. XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 1:56 pm | Permalink edit
L3 Financials – it will be in the WSJ whether the companies officially announce them or not, markets could rocket if they turn out to be less than expected (hard to be worse right now).
ARAY – not worth buying him out without a reason for .10, he’ll expire worthless unless we want to roll down.
CROX $39!
BIDU – oh yeah, I always put in silly offers to see if I get a bite…
GOOG – probably flatlining. Once we get into next week its expiration pinning time for sure. Think how nasty it is for all callers and putter if we flatline for a week. That’s why I said make sure you are out of Novembers – nothing but less money every day for them!
November 9th, 2007 at 2:01 pm | Permalink edit
GoogleFly play:
Buy $690 for $7.50
Sell $680 for $10.70 (credit $3.20)
Buy $670 puts for $13.70
Sell $680 puts for $18.80 (credit $5.10)
Risk is $1.80 and you make money between $671.70 and $688.30 XXX 5 for the $10KP and 10 for the $10KP.
November 9th, 2007 at 2:23 pm | Permalink edit
I just filled 20 for $8.70 real fast!
PTR flying.
Hubba – try paper trading for a month. Then you can make lots of mistakes without a hassle. We all learn by losing money but if you set up a sample account with OXPS or someone, you can try tons of trades and see what works for you.
Gosh you guys are getting me in the mood to take Monday off regardless!
Helicopter Ben in action now, financials are flying, as are builders I noted earlier. Only some “fix” could cause this.
GOOG still having trouble with $678 but over there, look out!
November 9th, 2007 at 2:25 pm | Permalink edit
GoogleFly – yep except it executed with a max loss of $1.30!
Here comes Mr GOOGLE, still time to buy the $700s XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 2:27 pm | Permalink edit
That’s GOOG $700s at $5.50 stop at $5, take half off at $7.50 and let it ride if it goes!
November 9th, 2007 at 2:32 pm | Permalink edit
DM that C 2010 play is a great idea. A very good place to park $1K. XXX
BSC says CDOs will hurt them in Q4. JPM says more write-downs to come. Be careful, that’s a party pooper!
November 9th, 2007 at 2:49 pm | Permalink edit
3 Goog spreads – yeah I guess so. Just trying to leverage the bucks.. Yes, 5 in the $10KP means 5 units
Here comes ISRG baby!
BIDU with a mighty turn!
November 9th, 2007 at 3:04 pm | Permalink edit
RTP – all I can do is hold a lottery ticket now. I rolled down to the $400s and got wiped out, worth just $1 now.
C spread – I wouldn’t pay more. Too dull but you can always ask or work in. C moving well today.
November 9th, 2007 at 3:22 pm | Permalink edit
Now GOOG is stuck between $678 and $680…
YHOO is a good roll to the Apr $25s for $2 wait on selling Dec $27.50s XXX
November 9th, 2007 at 3:24 pm | Permalink edit
13,200!
November 9th, 2007 at 3:47 pm | Permalink edit
Bug selloff is right Opt!
It was such a good try though.
DIA – same plan as before, DIA $132 puts. If you don’t already have them then the $131s
Welcome JCtiger! PCLN, why pick on the one good stock? RTP continues to be my short of the week. There is NOT $100Bn + laying around for them! I’m going to do a Dec/Nov spread on them if my $400 puts don’t work out next week!
November 9th, 2007 at 4:08 pm | Permalink edit
Option deflation – yeah, watch how fast your callers deflate (and you’d better not have Nov calls yourself!) on Monday.
VIX shot up at the close. If the VIX comes down people holding Nov contracts will be shocked, especially put conrtacts.
Market bounce – sadly, that may have been it…
