November 16th, 2007 at 9:30 am | Permalink edit copy
FDX lowered guidance – big party poopers!
November 16th, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink edit copy
CAKE – I’m not going to give him a quarter, I’m pretty sure they’re pinned and I’m willing to hold naked into next week if we close green (the market, not CAKE).
This rally does not look very encouraging, make sure you cover all! XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 10:01 am | Permalink edit copy
AMZN coming back a bit.
MCD and JBX doing well, someone is sector buying fast food.
Apple entries – All I do is put in what I wish I could pay and, once it’s filled I focus my attention on when to cover it. Richt now I’ve been too busy rolling to focus on Apple but the move is to start the down leg by taking the $150 puts at $5.53 and waiting on selling the $165 puts as long as possible. Obviously, when you decide to cover the puts is when you decide to enter the $180 calls (now $5.15) and then you make damn sure you cover them on the next turn, even if you’re wrong. Unless you are a really great timer, best to leg into the spread a couple at a time.
Market really tanking now, time for DIA 131 puts! XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 10:23 am | Permalink edit copy
Watch 13,100, 1,450 and 2,600 for breaking back up lines. Hopefully we’ll hold here but there would be nothing strange about a 100-point drop.
Oil up $1.71 on nuclear BS in Iran and now Chavez wants nukes or some BS – they all know the key words to pump oil on the right day don’t they? Such a joke.
RIMM fell below $100! Huge volume sell-off but still looks like a pin to me.
GOOG roll – you have 13 months to roll him, what do you care if GOOG goes up $46 and you have to give him his $21 back? You will be sitting on ‘09 $630s that are $41 in the money. The $46 in the money ’09s ($580s) are $145 and, more importantly, have $45 MORE INTRINSIC VALUE than the $640s. You have to understand that when you are out of the money, your premium can vaporize just like your caller’s! It doesn’t matter much with 13 months to go but if you ever want to see your $115 on Jan ‘09, you’d better be $115 in the money by then. That means you need to take $115 worth of steps over the next 12 months. If you can cover $45 of that now as your “upside risk” how could you not take it?
Lock in gains, lock in gains, lock in gains and after you do that – LOCK IN GAINS!
November 16th, 2007 at 10:48 am | Permalink edit copy
DNDN bad sell-off on earnings. Can’t imagine what people expected…
HXL – I still like them, you can always sell all or some of the $25s which would take 1/2 your basis off the table but limit your gain to $2.50 or you can roll to the Mar $22.50s at $4.15 and let the Dec $25 caller pay for it. I’d roll first and wait to sell as I think this thing can break out. Worst case is you end up selling the Dec $22.50s, now $2.95 on the way down.
In Happy 100 virtual portfolio HXL Nov $22.50 calls need to be rolled up to Dec $25 calls and take the $1.10 hit. IBM Jan $120s can be rolled to the $110s for $2.25 and we can wait on that one to sell against. IMCL is a DD at $4.80 for the Jan $40s, also naked. AMGN is a $1.50 roll to the $52.50s and DD at $4.30 and sell 1/2 Dec $55s at $1.90. XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 10:58 am | Permalink edit copy
RIMM Jan $100s at $13 XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 11:06 am | Permalink edit copy
Oh and of course we broke my levels so now we can be cautiously bullish until we go the other way.
November 16th, 2007 at 11:04 am | Permalink edit copy
MDT Dec $47.50s at $1.10 XXX I looked at these for a long time and can’t bring myself to sell them against my leaps so that’s a buy. I like these enough to make them a $10KP play for you early risers with 10 to start us off. 10 for the $25KP too. XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 11:06 am | Permalink edit copy
Oh and of course we broke my levels so now we can be cautiously bullish until we go the other way.
November 16th, 2007 at 11:09 am | Permalink edit copy
AAPL – oh sorry I forgot. I certainly hope you guys covered and bought the $180s and now we wait to cover the other side. XXX Sorry I just can’t watch it all the time!
November 16th, 2007 at 11:29 am | Permalink edit copy
HMY – I see several interesting plays. Once is simply buying the Dec $7.50s and selling the Dec $10s for net $2 which pays you $2.50 above $10 (stock is at $10.28). You can cover this by selling the Jan $7.50s for $3 against the Jan $5s for $5.40 (net $2.40) which only gives you .10 at $7.50 but you make up to $2.50 for a finish under $10 so it’s like a put against the Dec $10s. Of course life would totally suck if HMY finishes at $7.50 or less but I like the stock and it’s good money fairly safe. XXX
Financials leading us down again.
November 16th, 2007 at 11:40 am | Permalink edit copy
Don’t be too greedy with Apple covers I got $11.75 for the $165 calls and they’re back at $11.40, if they break $165 just make sure you use it as a floor to sell (and you can try som more puts if it goes down later!).
November 16th, 2007 at 11:52 am | Permalink edit copy
GOOG moving (along with everything else!) $630 calls at $4.25 stop at $3.50 XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 11:53 am | Permalink edit copy
Oh the $640s as a pre roll at .60, that way you can get out of the $630s with a $1.5 profit and let the rest ride.
November 16th, 2007 at 12:03 pm | Permalink edit copy
FSLR went nuts!
OK – I’m done with my stuff but please reask questions here as I’m still working on virtual portfolio rolls.
GOOG is disappointing already and you must get out (sorry) as the expiration will get you the second the mo stops. I’m keeping the $640s (and adding $620 puts if they get to .50) but that’s just for fun, it only hits one time out of 10.
November 16th, 2007 at 12:24 pm | Permalink edit copy
C Trade – the long put was taken because it had no premium. The point of the trade was to lock in the price with no risk so we want to do that with a minimum amount of premium. These are low risk, low profit trades so the considerations are not towards maximizing profits. There are 100 better ways to play this but all of them mean you need to watch it and accept some risk.
AppleFly – It’s buy the $180s ($5), Sell the $165s ($11.75) and (and this is the leg you should be working now) buy the $150 put for $4.50 and wait to sell the $165 put for $11.50 or better.
November 16th, 2007 at 12:47 pm | Permalink edit copy
Blodgett – yeah he learned his lesson, you can manipulate a stock and even if you get caught you can still make a whole career doing it over and over again because regulations are a joke!
FSLR – You just have to sell the Dec $210 calls for $18.65! It kills me to pay $38.90 for the March $210s but I want that premium!!! XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 12:57 pm | Permalink edit copy
Boy this channel’s getting tighter.
$9 premium for 45 days – That’s right, I include how far out of the money the caller is at the time. You need to lean to include position as part of your value calculation. This to me is the fundamental flaw in most option systems, they treat the contracts as if they are all imaginary but there is some actual value to having an option to purchase a stock but it’s heavily tied in with time, value and strike. Just trading by comparing strikes is why most systems fail.
SBUX – the MCD coffee thing is ridiculous. Yes I am all over the Dec $22.50s and I rolled and DD’d my long because these moron analysts wouldn’t know a good company if you dropped the headquarters on their heads.
HXL – I prefer to move a position like that by going to Jan $25s and selling the Dec $25s, that way you take all but .70 off the table and the caller pays most of your premium and you buy yourself a month.
Down we go again, look sharp on that Apple put sell!
November 16th, 2007 at 1:14 pm | Permalink edit copy
They are killing themselves to hold oil at $95
Oh man, I forgot next week is Thanksgiving! I’ve got to get more neutral as I won’t be around from Weds pm through all day monday. I’ll be in Texas but with a limited set-up. Market’s closed Thursday and will be slow on Friday. I would advise everyone be well-hedged over the holdiday – lots of shenanigans around big weekends like that.
MDT – yes 10 for each virtual portfolio. Of course if you are running 2 they will have a lot of replication as most $10KP plays are appropriate for the $25KP, just not the other way around.
I agree with Mark except for banning magazines that teach girs sexual positions, as a former teenager I have to say I find them to be an important part of American culture. 
I dread to think of how high school and college would have been if all my girlfriends learned everything they knew from their moms!
Looks like GOOGs decided on $630. Last month we took the outside puts and calls and turned them into a butterfly selling the (in this case) $620 puts and calls for $5.65 and that’s an XXX but you have a very serious risk of losing $5 so bear that in mind.
November 16th, 2007 at 1:22 pm | Permalink edit copy
BIDU $320s pay better than GOOG on the same play but BIDU is scarier I think.
FSLR $200 puts for $1 XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 1:40 pm | Permalink edit copy
Parchesia reminds me of a very important point – all Dec callers get ripped off by the holiday weekend – Jan is another good one as those callers miss Xmas and New Year’s so these are really good calls to sell.
XLE – never got my price so I’m stuck with Jan/Dec $73 spread.
CCJ I wouldnt put too much money in but you can roll the Mar $50s to the $45s for $1.55 and roll the Jan ‘09 $50s to the Jun $45s for -.90 and then you can sell 3 Dec $45s for $1.50 to get back some of what you lost without much danger of a big run up as you have 2 uncovereds left.
DNDN – no, untouchable right now.
AAPL – no I’m hoping for a bounce. If I have to bet on one company it’s going to be Apple.
November 16th, 2007 at 1:47 pm | Permalink edit copy
FSLR – out, it went bad. XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 2:20 pm | Permalink edit copy
CAKE – NEVER let the caller expire in the money. NEVER!!! I meant I won’t give him a .25 premium on the price (look how much cake went up and it’s still .25!). I know it’s a nail biter but I can always roll at the end but it’s amazing how they pin these stocks at the end. When I see something forced down to the close (like CAKE is now) it just makes me want it more…
November 16th, 2007 at 2:41 pm | Permalink edit copy
YHOO/ETFC is a nice idea. If they took that data private I would have to follow it.
$25KP adjustments:
AAPL – going naked
CAKE – also naked
GOOG – other than FrankenGoogle we have the Jan $660/Dec $680s
NEM – going naked
SHLD – staying naked
TSO – roll to Dec $55 puts at $4.25
Same moves for $10KP but don’t forget those positions are moving to the $25KP on Monday.
PTR – Spending $5 to roll to the Jan $190s and sell the Dec $195s for $10.40. XXX
LVS – Rolling the Nov $110 caller to the Dec $115s at $9.50. XXX
November 16th, 2007 at 3:09 pm | Permalink edit copy
Oh I’m so mad I forgot to short oil!
OIH holding $180 for no reason. Jan/Dec $175 put spread is $2 XXX
AAPL – I don’t have an uncovered long leg but I am leaving others uncovered so that logic could apply (but very risky for a small virtual portfolio).
VLO is right, everyone else is wrong!
GM gets a lot of buyers down around $30 so yes, I would go for the premium.
DIA Dec puts – yes! That’s why I can afford to have uncovered calls.
November 16th, 2007 at 3:25 pm | Permalink edit copy
HMY – in the $10/25KP I covered as we were behind and trying to catch up. That trade just had a different goal.
Welcome Susie Q – We start the virtual portfolio Monday but that doesn’t mean we trade on Monday as I try to be very selective at first. MDT Dec $47.50s are the first trade, already going badly at $1.02 (10 units).
Another $10KP or $25KP trade is HMY Jan/Dec $10s for .20 (this means buy the Jan $10s at $1.10 and sell the Dec $10s for .90 and NOT more than .20 on the spread). XXX (NO FILL)
November 16th, 2007 at 3:33 pm | Permalink edit copy
Banks – I’d stay away from anything small. WFC maybe. C and BAC of course are good. If Buffett likes USB that’s good for me.
Damn K1, you are amazing!
DM – that is the call of the day! I’m pretty sure you hit that Apple move right on the mark…
SBUX doing quite well.
FSLR must have gotten a contract to panel the moon or something…
November 16th, 2007 at 3:50 pm | Permalink edit copy
ZMH – no risk if you have the margin for it. I do those all the time to exit positions but most people don’t have that kind of room. I’m assuming you mean a Nov call intra-day, overnight you risk a gap.
UBS – If I’m going to trade with Buffett I’ll take the ’10s and wait a while.
MDT – I would wait until next week as I think they’ve been pinned and will bounce back. If I’m wrong then rolling down and selling $45s is better.
Nice end of day rally – maybe GOOG hits $640?
