November 27th, 2007 at 9:37 am | Permalink edit copy
Tracinda! And no arrests will be made… He wanted it so badly at $64 but at $52 he’s not interested. I can’t believe the scam these pricks run right in front of the general public over and over again and nothing is ever done about it!
BIDU back to going crazy despite China general sell-off.
Very strong buying so far. VZ notably weak. BHI down, TSO off a cliff!
November 27th, 2007 at 9:43 am | Permalink edit copy
Foget C’s dividend I think WM is up around 13% now! Last quarterly dividend was .50 on a $17 stock! That’s a buy for me at $16.81, I’ll figure out what else to do later but I can’t turn that down. XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 9:47 am | Permalink edit copy
Oops, $17.50 already! Friggin Esignal being down is killing me, I have to open up another live system… Well that means I’ll just sell the WM $17.50 puts at $1.70 and I’m selling 100 in the stock virtual portfolio as I’ll be happy to own 10,000 shares at $15.80 with a dividend of $2+! XXX If you have margin issues you can buy the Jan ‘09 $15 puts for $4 to cut the requirement but this is a fantastic naked put.
November 27th, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink edit copy
AAPL – no I’m not comfortable and I’m not sure what to do yet so, when in doubt, stick to the plan that’s been working… It is behaving itself in our range and we have our naked $180s for $5.50 so I’m looking for $15.50 to sell the $165s but it topped out at $16 yesterday so that may be cutting it close but I want to give it a chance to break out if we can stay up 100 on the Dow, otherwise we will need to trigger both the sale of the $165s and the purchase of the $160 puts, now $2.78. XXX
Oh, yes, OBVIOUSLY (and this needs to get obvious to you if you play these) roll the AAPL $150 puts up to the $160 puts for $1.40!!! XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 9:57 am | Permalink edit copy
Damn, things are turning down already – be careful!
November 27th, 2007 at 10:04 am | Permalink edit copy
GOOG loving that $666 level.
Consumer confidence 87.3, down from 95.6 and way off expectations of 91.? that was expected. That is terrible yet we are holding up – very strange but be super careful.
Treasuries all below 4% – too bad nobody qualifies to refinance anymore…
November 27th, 2007 at 10:09 am | Permalink edit copy
C – well that 11% number is really freaking people out but it’s also a healthy shot of reality, just like HBC putting a real number on the SIVs they’re moving onto the books. I see this as a turning point but it will take a while to get people to believe there’s not another major shoe to drop (and maybe there is).
Apple made a very fast downturn!
WM – I did want the stock but I’m not chasing so I sold the puts instead. Yes I like them long-term but that means 2+ years, not 6 months so I am fully prepared to DD at $13 if I have to.
My Esignal is back up after a reboot.
Woops, down we go! DIA puts are good here as are QID calls. XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 10:10 am | Permalink edit copy
Gold falling off too, this is a recessionary failure, not just technical. Sox are falling fast – very bad!
November 27th, 2007 at 10:16 am | Permalink edit copy
I can’t believe nobody took my DUG play from last week – that was a gold mine!
GHS – they are interesting but WM is NOT going to go BK. I’m not saying GHS will but at $14Bn WM will absolutely get bought if they weaken much further.
YRCW – I never got the things I picked since I left other than the Apples and the Index puts as I was too busy and I hate trading when I’m not home but ask me about any pick if I still like them (and YRCW is one I still like).
November 27th, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink edit copy
This is very not pretty. Buyers looking like idiots as everything reverses within 45 minutes of the open.
November 27th, 2007 at 10:21 am | Permalink edit copy
GOOG $690s for $15.70 XXX stop at $13, looking for $19+
November 27th, 2007 at 10:50 am | Permalink edit copy
GOOG – $690s at $19, OK, I can go back on vacation now! 
DUG – it never filled for me as I was cheap and put in a day order. I can’t believe not one person grabbed it the next day when it came in well below my target. On Blake’s sale of the Dec $45s – no, I don’t think oil’s going that low without a bounce and you can just roll him when you eat more premium. Right now you’d be giving hom .40 for nothing and buying into the initial excitement. On the other hand, for .75 I’d roll down to the Apr $35s, picking up $2 in intrinsic value for .75, almost a 3:1 payoff. Then, if DUG really takes off, you will always have the option of rolling up to 2X the $46s at virtually no cost to you.
WM – 2X the $15s is fine but it’s more margin and I really do want to own it so I went with selling the $17.50s. If you are just doing it for the payoff then selling the $15s is safer.
Trading swings today are the result of various big swingers coming out of strategy meetings. Today will very much set the tone through the end of the year and we’re coming on pretty strong into lunch now. Still this is it for Apple if they can’t break up over $176 and you need to cover and buy puts if you didn’t on the last dive. (see earlier targets).
I like the SOX coming back here and the S&P needs to hold 1,420 with the Nas angling for 2,600 again – hopefully led by Apple’s breakout.
November 27th, 2007 at 10:53 am | Permalink edit copy
COP $80s were $2 yesterday. In at 1.10, out at .90 looking for $1.45 XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 11:09 am | Permalink edit copy
GOOG – it’s OK to chase a mo trade as long as you raise your stop to compensate for what you paid and realize that you have a greater chance of stopping out but if you are paying less than 15% of the target range (in GOOGs case it was $19-$15.70 = $3.30 so .45 more than $15.70 would not be a terrible since obviously the mo is going the way we thought it would.
Speaking of mo, the whole market is picking some up now!
AAPL $10KP – I need to give that one some thought as I don’t want to end up with a day trade, which is always a danger with these.
GOOG – Google is clearly worth well over $700, that’s all we really need to know. Notice I’m not into picking tops but anytime they want to drop it back down like that I’m happy to step in and buy some.
C – I rolled my open $35s to the $32.50s for .50, that paid off real fast but we’ll see if they can break out over $30.50 and then the critical test of $32 but this stock is an even better deal than Google. People (and this includes supposed experts on TV) just cannot get a grasp on how massive Citi is an how well they can absorb even a massive hit in sub-prime. We have gone from ignoring the sub-prime disaster to totally overblowing it (with respect to the major financials). Who got RICH in the great depression? The already rich bankers. When everyone has no money because they got killed in a crash then the banks that were only mortally wounded shall be king and C very likely is only suffering a flesh wound. You need to read through HBC and what they are doing to restructure $45Bn in SIVs. They are about 30% smaller than C and far more constricted in what they are allowed to do and they are getting off relatively scott-free.
Don’t forget C has been under attack by GS and others for a week and I’ve been saying since day one that this was absolute crap. They are tossing 10% of their workforce out the window, probably kocking $2Bn PER QUARTER off payroll. All the jobs lost will be middle management and mortgage so it will have little impact on go-forward revenues and, of course, they still have a CEO to announce.
November 27th, 2007 at 11:28 am | Permalink edit copy
SHFL might have finally found a floor.
Damn, I should have shorted RTP again instead of just complaining about what BS it was the other day!
AXP $57.50s at $1.30 XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 11:33 am | Permalink edit copy
SKF – Don’t short financials and definitely don’t ULTRA short them! I was just saying, it’s overdone at this point, way too dangerous to short until they go back to overbought, maybe back at $35 on the XLF.
IMCL – in the Happy 100 we did sell the $40s at $2.35 but that’s because at this stage we just want to get even. I still like the Jan $40s naked for $3.30 if you are starting fresh.
AAPL – I’m guessing a spike up to $176.50 by 1pm followed by an afternoon sell-off back to $174.
November 27th, 2007 at 11:35 am | Permalink edit copy
QID Jul $40s are back to $7 and I still like them for downside protection as you can sell the $42s for $2 if the Qs break $50 on you. XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 11:39 am | Permalink edit copy
Bonds moved .28 already today! Money is flying back into the markets, probably in transit right now but that makes sense as I come back from vaca to my $1T fund and tell my boys to get some cash ready if we can hold levels today. Really big boys will buy lightly and wait patiently but looking at the bond numbers I’d say a lot of the smaller funds will be willing to try to jump ahead of this curve.
November 27th, 2007 at 11:50 am | Permalink edit copy
Hey check out SHLD!
Very uncreative buying: DRYS, BSC, ADM, AAPL, YHOO, QCOM… Good Nas names mostly, just what we always wanted but the Qs are having a hell of a time at 50. Energy is holding the markets back but I bet a buyer shows up in that sector after lunch with inventories tomorrow as the sector is down 5% from last Wed am.
SU got murdered, which is silly with oil still around $95 but if they don’t come back and if there’s no rally by tomorrow morning then we may need to take a serious round of oil puts!
November 27th, 2007 at 12:01 pm | Permalink edit copy
GOOG being drawn back to $666 like a moth to a flame.
This is the end of the European buying spree. Now it’s time for our markets to see if they can stand on their own. The ECB just ponied up an extra $44Bn and most of it just went into our market it looks like as there’s that trade war with China plus French riots at home for them so we look “less sucky.” BCS is making nice noises so that’s the 1 and 2 EU banks fixing their own mess without the need for a mega fund bail out, that is good for the US but bad for the Financials that were counting on a hand-out.
Possibly the selling pressure on oil is coming from Europe too so let’s keep an eye on the NYMEX at the stroke of noon. Oil is at $94.57 right now, down $3 (3%) for the day.
November 27th, 2007 at 12:22 pm | Permalink edit copy
COP – I do try to take into account how much people will buy but bulk buys like COP screw me up. I just did a DD myself rather than a stop out as I think it’s our participation that caused the dip, not a real drop in value but oil is very weak so it’s a riskier play than I intended. This now comes down to the scenario I laid out in the previous post, not the charts and fundi mo plays often follow the rule that the market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent!
GOOG – are they going to give us another shot? If so, do we want to take it?
Safe for Yev – WM. Own it at $17.50 buy the ‘09 $30 puts for $13.80 for a total of $31.20. Sell the Ded $17.50s for $1.55 so you’re already ahead on the deal and you can sell the current $15 puts for .75 with a $1.25 stop (the current $17.50s are just $1.50 so it would take a really nasty turn to force you to buy them back). This is, of course, assuming you don’t mind actively managing the position.
You can set a buy back for the $17.50s at $2.50, which is where they were on the 19th with the stock at $18.50 so you can look at it like this: You are buying the stock for $17.40 less the $1.55 from your $17.50 caller so that’s net $15.85. If the stock goes back to $18.50 (and it probably has to go higher as time is decaying) you will buy back the caller for $2.50 which will put you in at $18.35 with the stock at at least $18.50 and, of course, the caller would have been killed so you collect that money and you can probably turn around and sell the $20s for another $1. This play is an XXX for anyone who can follow that logic!
That being said financials are fading again so let’s watch those downsides!
Hey DM – don’t forget to stop and smell the roses.
November 27th, 2007 at 12:33 pm | Permalink edit copy
Earnings – I haven’t even looked yet!
Damn, this is Plosser’s fault. He says weak data will not make the Fed cut rates further as inflation is a bigger concern. Don’t forget inflation is like Kryponite for lenders. This is a big test for C back at $30. No rate cut = stronger(ish) dollar = bad for commodities. Stronger Yuan = less exports (in theory) = slowing economy = bad for commodities.
DECK new ATH – that’s interesting.
NYSE way off the Dow, that’s a bad sign but oil is coming back even if the sector isn’t yet and that can goose the broader indices.
HD at a 5-year low, no end in sight. MRK is crankin’ even though PFE is still doggin’
IMCL looking good.
MON looks like they read that potash report. They are a nice safety stock and Jan $95s are $4.95 and were $7.75 on the 14th. XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 12:44 pm | Permalink edit copy
$10KP AppleFly:
We have the Dec $180/$165 calls with a $8.25 spread
We have the Dec $160/$170 puts with a $9.75 spread.
We can’t lose. We’ve collected $18 and our max payout is $15 at $180+.
Best is to roll the $165 call up to the $170 call for $1.60 which cuts the max loss to $10 and lowers our collection to $16.40 for a $6.40 minimum profit and it moves our “sweet spot, where we win the whole $16.40 up to $170. XXX
Later on, we can do a double roll of the $180/$170 calls to the $185/$175 calls for $1 to widen our sweet spot and lessen the chance of an upside blow out but we have to weigh out the cost of $1 of our $6.40 in the hand for what we are chasing in the Bush. With the market this strong I don’t think we want to be buying another put round for such a small virtual portfolio as it’s too dangerous.
November 27th, 2007 at 12:48 pm | Permalink edit copy
FRO – assigned away from the dividend? Ow that’s sneaky!
Oil patch perking up.
GLW breaking out.
TXN was a suggestion from TOM2OC this morning and I do like the Apr $32.50s at $2.05 as they haven’t jumped like the closer calls this morning. XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 1:16 pm | Permalink edit copy
Weak Apple and Goog is OK, people have already been buying them on the dips, now it’s time to show faith in the broader tech.
Now we have to hope that 13,000 doesn’t look like a ceiling.
AXP moving nicely.
Qs still can’t break $50 – that HAS to be a concern here!
Covered the rest of GS with the $210s at $14.50 XXX
November 27th, 2007 at 1:28 pm | Permalink edit copy
Applefly $1.60 vs. $3 – no way do we do it for $3. $3 is outrageous at the best of times for a $5 roll but that was my bad as I was looking at the wrong end. It’s the $180s that we are rolling down to the $175s if possible (but now it is $2.30, too much). Just as a general concept, whenever you can tighten either side of a spread up at $1.70 or less for a $5 move in your favor, try to take it. The same goes for $10 spreads, where I almost automatically take any $3.50 roll I can get. If you purge bad plays and keep your folder fresh, then you can get into good habits of grabbing these opportunities when they present themselves.
COP is totally struggling but looks like it wants to break up really badly.
November 27th, 2007 at 1:52 pm | Permalink edit copy
AIG – another company people just don’t understand. I’ve got the ‘09 $60s and sold the Dec $60s which I neglected to buy back last week but, since I sold them for $2.40, I’m not at all unhappy.
DM – I went around Comdex a few years ago and told every vendor I wanted a black and white laptop because I didn’t give a rat’s ass about color if it got in the way of battery life so I’m very pleased with the Kindle as a first step towards an 12-hour laptop for people who actually just want a business machine.
AAPL – by the way, that was the lunch move I was looking for but we didn’t make it to $176 but the drift down is according to plan.
November 27th, 2007 at 1:58 pm | Permalink edit copy
Watch S&P 1,420!
November 27th, 2007 at 2:29 pm | Permalink edit copy
Oil – I’m not playing for a strong rally in oil but I’d like to see XLE for example, test and fail $75 before I jump on the puts again (don’t forget I just cashed a ton of very profitable puts so I’m not too excited to sqeeze out 20% gains where we just closed triples).
ETFC IS worth $10 a share. Certainly $8 and positively a lot more than $5. We got the ‘09 $5s at $1.55 and they’re only $1.85 now and we sold the Dec $5s for .75, still the same. Think about that, I bought 200 for $37K and immediately sold 200 for $15K in my first of 13 months I have to sell. I have zero upside risk since I’m on par with my caller (no matter what I can just roll him to the next $5 and the next and the next) and the most I can lose it $12K, which is what I make each month so I only have to get lucky 2 out of 13 months for a virtually free trade. This was a huge XXX when I first entered it and still is.
November 27th, 2007 at 3:13 pm | Permalink edit copy
CAT Feb/Dec $70s just $2.20 on the spread. XXX
This is where we should see some buying if we’re going to get a real trend. Big boys want to see 12,900 minimum at the close but that S&P under 1,420 is a bigger problem. Rotation out of energy is a great sign though – you have to appreciate how great it is that energy is off 2-3% and the market is still up 100 points. This hasn’t happened in years and could be huge!
November 27th, 2007 at 3:37 pm | Permalink edit copy
DM – I’d love to answer that but I’m not technical enough to know what is public knowledge and what is a deep company secret! Effectively, you can’t stop the transmission but it’s the encryption which requires a double key that makes it effectively just noise to anyone who isn’t authorized to recieve the signal. Since it’s a dual key system, it means that each user can customize, update and change it, which really makes it just as good as standard 256K encryption.
See, I told you there’d be buying into the close! Oil patch perking up nicely for our COP calls!
November 27th, 2007 at 3:58 pm | Permalink edit copy
FXI – $190s for $4.65 gamble on big China bounce. XXX
