November 30th, 2007 at 9:52 am | Permalink edit copy
The easiest way to short oil is DUG calls (Jul $39s for $9.50) or DIG puts (Mar $118 puts at $22)but it’s oil AND gas, not pute. Shorting SU is great too and you can buy the Mar $110 puts for $16.20 ($4 premium) and sell the Dec $90 puts when they get to $2+ or sell the $95 puts for $2 if it goes the wrong way on you. XXX
Integrated oil holding up better than they should, SU leading the way down so far but it’s the weekend, who knows which way oil will end today.
FXI – not for the $10KP or $25KP, too pricey and dangerous.
Rev Shark – thanks Joe. If you are a member, best tell his guy I’d love to chat, see if they’re interested and give I’ll send them a note. Maybe some synergies there – I here some people like trading these stock thingies… 
XLF – I’m not jumping all over calls here as I don’t trust a big up move on the last day of the month when hedge funds are desperate to show profits. While I wish I had been more bullishly positioned, I’m not going to let that force me into making a mistake by trying to “catch up” and overpaying.
OK, now Esignal has just gotten strange, it’s not showing me many of my symbols…
GOOG/APPL rolls – there is no great time when they pull this sort of move but it’s a step back and take a deep breath kind of thing. Obviously the last thing we want to do is buy out hyperinflated callers.
Everyone is turning back down uniformly and I think we’ll at least test 13,400 but probably 13,300 if we break through there so I hope you’ve all rolled your puts up!
November 30th, 2007 at 10:02 am | Permalink edit copy
Construction spending is down, big recession sign.
DRYS popping as CEO just siad good things on CNBC. Mar $105s are worth a gamble at $15 but we absolutely want to sell against them on loss of mo. XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 10:04 am | Permalink edit copy
X taking a dip. $90 puts very cheap at $1.50 XXX (notice I am playing it both ways for next week).
November 30th, 2007 at 10:10 am | Permalink edit copy
Commercial construction – yes.
FSLR – well of course I took the $3 roll to the $220 puts. These are almost absolutes in these situations, even with mighty Apple and GOOG. Just remember to be very happy when you get even!
November 30th, 2007 at 10:15 am | Permalink edit copy
This is a great time to roll up spreads by the way as your short callers’ premium is more than yours so if you roll, for example the GS Apr/Dec $210s to the Apr/Dec $230s you actually can do so for a credit while pushing your caller $20 off the money and having him give you $7 more in premium.
Don’t go too crazy though as we may go back down. I do these things but then I balance them with more index puts as I mentally keep track of my exposure (it’s kind of like counting cards where I assign a + and – value to each move I make so I can guesstimate my coverage adjustment along the way).
November 30th, 2007 at 10:29 am | Permalink edit copy
AAPL – I have $175 calls I own at $5.98, now $13.50 against $165s I sold at $12.05 now $21.70 so I’m down $2 on the trade. What I can do is roll him to $185 calls at $7.40, turning this into a bull call spread which costs me $14 vs. the $6 I originally collected so I’m out $5 on the trade but I have a $10 advantage over my caller (and I’ve released $10 in margin). This is a move you make IF IF IF Apple is breaking up further and, of course increases your total risk from $4 to $5 but since the $4 is all but lost already you have to look at the $1 extra as spending $1 with a chance to win $5.
This is an XXX and feel free to ask on specifics but this is only a play to make when a bear call is really getting away from you as it totally sucks if it snaps back the other way. The same can be done with put legs too so just reverse everything I just said other than the IF because it’s a big if!
November 30th, 2007 at 10:30 am | Permalink edit copy
DRYS – lost MO fast! If it fails $95 then it’s probably best to cover.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:36 am | Permalink edit copy
Selling stopped on a dime, hopefully we’re finding some levels here. I’m going to watch carefully now to see at what point the next sells trigger but it’s probably 13,450.
We’re not getting a lot of breakouts to new highs which indicates a lot of profit taking still around. Oil down at $89 so I’m rolling and DD on oil puts unless it breaks $90 again.
Oh that was easy – yes there are selling programs at 13,450 and NYSE 9,900 so let’s look to those for breakouts if the sellers give up.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:48 am | Permalink edit copy
Sorry super busy, please reask anything urgent and I’ll get back in 10 mins. Generally I’m rolling my calls further out where I can while rolling my callers up to higher premiums, the roll out in time insulates me from a drop so I can afford a little less downside protection. Of course I will roll my caller down if the market tanks using the money from my wiped out caller.
I still like XOM and CVX $85 puts. XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 10:58 am | Permalink edit copy
AMGN seems to find support no matter what. Slow and steady wins the race so lets take 10 Apr $57.50s at $3.55 and (ONLY IF it goes down) sell 5 Jan $55s at no less than $2.75 in the $10KP and $25KP. So that’s a .25 sell stop on the Jan $55s. XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 11:00 am | Permalink edit copy
LVS, MGM, WYNN all getting killed. BYD has been super strong but they could become a sector victim and the Jan $40 puts are just $2.55 XXX <No Fill>
November 30th, 2007 at 11:03 am | Permalink edit copy
FWLT – “. . . from hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee.” Yes damn it I’m going to short those bastards! I’ll take those $150 puts at $6.50 but I’m not x’ing it as this thing has killed me more ways than Rasputin…
November 30th, 2007 at 11:09 am | Permalink edit copy
Wow, what a reversal!
Sadly, I just DD’d on Apple $175 puts at $3.80 XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 11:15 am | Permalink edit copy
X’ing, I just meant not giving it an XXX and I didn’t want to write XXX as it might confuse people…
Oh tight stops on the Apple puts, basis now $4.18, thilled to get even.
IMCL still strong, TEVA still good, Airlines holding up as oil goes down. GS doing a very slow mo burn. SHLD holding $104, very interesting. AXP hanging tough while MA goes down – hahahahahaha….
BIDU holding up better than I thought. DIE FWLT DIE! Who the heck did RIMM piss off this morning? They blew right through the 5% rule.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:25 am | Permalink edit copy
Jan DIA puts – I imagine you are no longer worried. I had rolled mine up to $135s on the run up as they came in at .30.
DRYS – looking iffy and we should roll down if they break $90, both the caller and ourselves.
FSLR – I have a Jan/Dec $220 call spread and I have Dec $220 puts on that set.
Film nailed it again by the way, even when Apple looked like a moon shot yesterday he decided to get shorter – excellent job!
GS – oops, I wasn’t rolling even, I had a $10 advantage on my caller and I rolled that to even but the principal is the ssame, welll worth $1.50.
XMSR and SIRI holding up well on deal talk.
November 30th, 2007 at 11:39 am | Permalink edit copy
CCJ getting to be a deal if it drops further. Nukes are making a long-term comeback and $80 oil won’t change that.
Speaking of which, oil is at $88.69!
DD strategy – yes, you set very tight stops once you get to even after a DD (or a roll for that matter). You’re doing it because you were wrong the first time so being wrong twice on the same trade is just not very smart. I do break this rule all the time for what I call focus puts, like XOM as I’ll double and roll and double and roll when they get too ahead of themselves.
Cramer – I used to be a huge fan but he totally sold out and I think it’s shameful what he does to his viewers. I have chided him into being a little more responsible but now I’m pissed I got no credit as he adopted a ton of my rules for his viewers. The problem is (which I can relate to) that not everyone pays attention to rules and a lot of people trade blindly on his word, which is very uncool.
Talk about throwing out the baby with the bathwater. KO is going down, APPL looks like RIMM – that’s not right!
November 30th, 2007 at 11:47 am | Permalink edit copy
Gortex – let me know how that goes Film. Tina wants me to do that but it creeps me out.
Neat bounce of 13,350 not a bad thing, great if we can retake 13,400. S&P holding 1,480 is essential as tis Nas 2,650 with 2,675 the critical level there.
My July QIDs are right back to $6 (basis $6.60) after killing my callers, I’m really starting to love this one but you have to remember to trade upside down, which gets me every time.
Out of Apple puts even (phew!). XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 12:01 pm | Permalink edit copy
Woo hoo on SU!
The next release from Piper will be an upgrade of Apple because they are bucking the decline trend in smartphones. Really guys, shorting Apple is a very poor strategy I think, even as protects it’s a disaster. Let’s take out the $180 AAPL calls in the $10KP at $9.50 and let the $190s ride for a bit. XXX
$25KP – same on the $185s.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:08 pm | Permalink edit copy
Silver down – it’s the mortgage fix that trumps the Fed cut. Housing can disgourge or suck up $1Tn in a couple of months – it takes the Fed almost a year to print up $1Tn. If commercial RE comes back and the dollar starts coming back then foriegners start going nuts on US real estate (anyone who wants to start a REIT to funnel Euros to US distressed commercial let me know) creating a demand for dollars again.
Taking SU and running here though, leaving my losing XOM on with CVX for now but I’m happy with the profits on the Dec puts. XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 12:49 pm | Permalink edit copy
Oh hey, that reminds me. I had this idea to make flourescent contacts for club kids but I know nothing about optometry. I figure they make other colors so why not cool glowy ones? If it’s up anyone’s alley let me know.
AUY got killed today. BIDU booking down now, so much for FXI.
Big $180 test for Apple coming up.
VixDex – really complex, hopefully K1 can dig it up over the weekend but my theory is that a low VIX indicates the market is going in the “correct” direction so if we see the VIX down as the Dow goes lower, that would be a significant reversal as it has very consistantly gone up whenever the market goes down.
AMGN – $55s need to be sold.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:55 pm | Permalink edit copy
HD trying to make a comeback. I like the ‘09 $30s for $3.95 and waiting a while. XXX
BUD breaking out and always a good superbowl play. Mar $55s at $1.45 XXX 5 for the $10KP and 10 for the $25KP.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:58 pm | Permalink edit copy
AMGN – coming back a bit but yes, sell the Jan $55s for $3 against half. It’s good protection and you still have a good upside on the other half.
RIMM Mar/Dec $110 spread for $8.50 net is my current favorite. XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 1:44 pm | Permalink edit copy
BUD – even better actually!
Yev – yes I would, I think it’s marketable and it would be fun to see if it can be done. I’ll drop you a note, thanks. Reflecting is cool too but it would have a hole in the middle so I’m not sure how that would look.
CCJ – I’d wait until next week and I’d go longer, this thing can break your heart and you really just want to run it as a play to sell calls against, not a straight directional bet.
SHLD Mar $110s for $9.50, selling the current $110s for $4 or the $105s for $4 if it goes the wrong way. XXX
ORCL – Not looking so hot today. I’d go for the Jan/Dec $20 PUTS for net .24, especially if earnings are after expiration. On earnings day, you can cover by buying calls and making a strangle or you can just enjoy the volatility crush on the putter. XXX
Brokers – I can do OPXS right on my IPhone, it’s a pain in the but but as long as I can do my indexes in an emergency I’m happy. I think a smartbroker should do a WAP as I can’t be the only guy who has 4 or 5 stocks loaded up to trade when I’m on the road.
FWLT – it’s Moby Dick actually, best deliverd by the Great Ricardo Montelban in Start Trek II: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lGtMjkj5TE
Outsourcers – INFY is my favorite but they trade all over the place. That PRU deal should have gotten them more attention. The Jan ‘09 $40s are very cheap at $9 since you can sell current $45s for .80 already but I’d wait until they test $42.50.
VIX – yes now it’s more in line but it seemed strange how little it reacted to the morning drop.
Oh no, more FedSpeak! Kroszner supporting mortgage freeze. Watch your puts if we start heading back up even through it’s the same news as this morning.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:54 pm | Permalink edit copy
Marriage – I could never have done it between 25 and 33, I was working too much, traveling too much and having way too much fun. Waiting was definitely the right thing to do for me. My only regret is I’m going to be an older dad for my kids and I have friends with grown kids that have a really good time doing things with them. I don’t know how much fun I’ll be on the slopes when my daughter graduates college…
November 30th, 2007 at 2:02 pm | Permalink edit copy
MOT – it’s kind of a “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” change though but investors WILL get fooled again.
$25KP if untouched from this morning up $3K – VERY important lesson to learn about not letting yourself feel forced into trading, especially on gap ups or downs! $10KP would have gained $200. It’s a very good exercise to go to the trouble of snapshotting your virtual portfolio every morning and, if you have a stressful day, going back and seeing what would have happened if you just left it alone. It really helps you see what you are doing right and wrong.
NY State suing CFC for fraud. $10 puts are .85, stop at .70, looking for $1.10 XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 2:10 pm | Permalink edit copy
Sorry, I need to stop saying stop on mo plays because a lot of you guys just stop out. The proper way to execute that play is let’s say I’m willing to go $2K on it. I buy 10 at .85 but at .70 I will probably DD so I’m in for net $1,550 and or .726 and THEN I set a new stop at .60 but MAYBE I will add 10 there at .60, dropping the basis down to .66 and THEN I set a very definite stop at .50 for a 20% loss on my $2K.
This is all assuming that I still like the trade and I think the move against me won’t last and the market or sector hasn’t moved way against me. I like this play because it’s the first I’m hearing about it, I heard it on CNBC, the stock reacted harshly to it and they YHOO news story is 1:27 so I didn’t miss the top by much. In theory, this news will creep around and everyone who looks to see why CFC is going down all of a sudden sees this article and goes – Uh oh. The story is not a plant, the plaintif was just on TV laying out his case and CFC is VERY unlikely to respond quickly and the State of NY is a very deep pocket to fight in court (they have some of the country’s best lawyers on payroll).
Just thought you guys might like to know what’s behind my thinking in one of those quick XXX’s I throw up…
November 30th, 2007 at 2:43 pm | Permalink edit copy
CVX – rolling and doubling when I can.
Sell stop – A regular stop is when you set a .25 stop on your position at $5 meaning you will cancel it at $4.75. A trailing stop (and I almost always mean trailing stop even though I often forget to say so) means that when the stock goes to $5.75, you raise your stop to $5.50 and so on. A sell stop means that you have a price at which you will trigger the sale of a cover, rather than the sale of your contract. Generally a sell stop for me is a hard target as I don’t REALLY want to cover but if it slips below a certain level I will.
AAPL target – depends on when doesn’t it. Long-term I’d be shocked if they can’t break $200 in the spring. Probably they’ll split more than 2:1 as Jobs likes to “keep it real” so maybe 4:1 around next earnings. I’ve been waiting for a big sell-off to go long on them as I cashed out a lot of Apple before the holiday but I’m so far ahead on my remaining positions I can’t bring myself to raise my basis with new positions.
GOOG target – $3,500 a share by 2015.
OXPS rolling spreads – no you can’t, that’s a hassle, I use the condor box for each leg but sometimes it’s good because it keeps my head in the mindset that sometimes you are much better off rolling the legs separately.
Light emitting – I said neon, not florescent! I can’t imagine it’s any more risky than putting a dozen pins through every nook and cranny on your body but that is my big concern as BOL taught us, people freak out about eye issues.
SHLD – Yes Courtney but can I sell off your assets for over $20Bn leaving you with $27Bn in the bank and no debt? I am just baffled at how dumb wall street can be to allow a rebuilding year to knock $10Bn off the company’s value. They may go lower but I will buy more. Eddie bought $300M worth of stock back last Q3 at about $140, he bought $1.3Bn back in July at $140. Who do you think is buying now at $105? He’s no dummy, he’ll let it slide again with the market because he doesn’t need to manipulate the stock price to get a bonus, he already owns most of that $27Bn in assets (that he bought for $6Bn) and now he’s buying back the rest from a bunch of fools.
AAPL – Corey, I would spend $8 to roll yourself down to the $175s. Then he’s protecting you with $7 worth of premium and you have discharged your entire obligation to him and eliminated your margin requirement. Your puts now protect you to the downside (especially if you spend $1.50 to roll to the $175s). You could also move into a spread by moving your puts to the $185s at $8.90 and selling the $175 puts to someone else on a downturn, a move that would cost you $1 net or less but locks you in for a $10 return on the spread.
November 30th, 2007 at 2:59 pm | Permalink edit copy
Oil patch is praying something blows up over the weekend.
MA – I still like them for next week. It is risky but they’re no AXP!
DDay – sounds like fun, you must invite me over next time…
CCJ – the farther the better but unless you don’t care about the margin when you sell you are better off with the $40s as your delta is closer to the caller’s anyway on the upside and you MUST sell calls with this stock as no good run goes unpunished.
YHOO – hope is not a strategy! If you are down .30 you have a much better chance of making it on the $27.50s than you do on the $30s, which effectively have $3.30 in premium with 15 days left so any day the stock doesn’t gain .20 is a loser for you. The $27.50s have a premium of 2.30, just .14 a day so you only need a streak of .25 a day for 3 days to get .30 ahead and be even whereas .25 a day for 3 days would lose you .21 of ground on the $30s.
Alibaba is still a good story but the Shanghai died since the IPO and the Hang Seng got shakey so they got blowback but long-term this is a no-brainer as the only legitimate challenge to Google’s control of the earth.
I love marriage. I very much doubt that I would have loved it 15 years ago but 9 years into this one and I’m very happy.
FSLR – Waiting is fulfillment (goes for CFC too).
November 30th, 2007 at 3:12 pm | Permalink edit copy
That’s another $1Bn knocked off the NYMEX today, about $3Bn for the week – I don’t care how rich you are that has to hurt! What will happen is the small players will break if they can’t get back over $90 and that means it will cost the big boys more to support this mess. GS already bailed and that could be a big-time problem, especially if they move to the short side (very likely).
Very nice MrN!
SHLD – I can’t believe there isn’t a searscatolog.com, even if they just put up a front and let AMZN run the back end I’d keep the distribuition centers, sell off 75% of the stores and keep the rest as service/exchange centers/showrooms and spend all days cutting distribution deals with people who want to be included in my catalog. I could market the hell out of that company, have Eddie call me!
Oh dear, ugly sell off, this may accelerat into the close so make sure you have good downside coverage! XXX
November 30th, 2007 at 3:34 pm | Permalink edit copy
Tritium gas – isn’t that what Scotty was always our of on the Enterprise? I was just thinking of whatever they use to make those black light posters. You don’t necessarily want them on all the time, just in nightspots but it is worth checking if it’s eye safe (but I don’t think a contact lens could hold a gas as I think they are porous).
DELL – I took out my caller at .05 but I’m not interested in doing anything else right now, we’ll see what happens next week.
Rotation – hard to say today as the month is closing but the Nas isn’t cutting it and the SOX were a big fizzle so I’m not expecting much. We’re 30 points over my predicted top for the week, as painful as it is for me to be off by 0.2%, it’s not going to shake me out of my theory.
Jasmine – remind me on the weekend but check the K1 posts too as I’m sure we’ve had this discussion before. In the end, it all depends but Rule #1 is “Always sell into the intial excitement.” That means if you are buying out your callers into a rally you are pretty much on the wrong side of half of our rules.
FNM and FRE coming on strong, I’m guessing that they are being included in some bail out talks. FNM is the way to go Mar $45s are $1.43 XXX but pure speculation.
