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Long-Term Virtual Portfolio Status

By phil
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Rather than a wrap-up of a dull day I’m going to go over the LTP and look at the moves ahead for the next 2 days.  As a rule of thumb, if I have my caller by 80-90% and I don’t see a benefit to getting the next two days of premiums vs my current caller, I’ll go today as I don’t like the pressure of having to roll everything tomorrow.

The comments are under each postion and the underlying assumption is we stay under 13,300 through expirations but hold 13,150 which would lead me to think this is more healthy consolidation and less pending disaster:

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
50 APR 08 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVDO) LO $ 12,020.00 7/25/2007 $ 131,000.00   148
$ 118,980.00 989.9 %
20 APR 08 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVDO) LO $ 52,010.00 12/18/2007 $ 52,400.00   2
$ 390.00 0.7 %
20 DEC 07 185.00 AAPL CALL (APVLQ) SO $ 2,240.00 12/18/2007 $ 5,990.00   2
$ 3,750.00 62.6 %
50 DEC 07 185.00 AAPL CALL (APVLQ) SO $ 5,600.00 12/18/2007 $ 17,480.00   2
$ 11,880.00 68.0 %
Rolling to Jan, probably $185s, now $9.60 unless there’s a big move.
$ 135,000.00 187.8 %
AIG
50 JAN 09 60.00 AIG CALL (VAFAL) LO $ 25,160.00 11/2/2007 $ 34,000.00   48
$ 8,840.00 35.1 %
50 JAN 08 55.00 AIG CALL (AIGAK) SO $ 20,500.00 12/14/2007 $ 20,490.00   6
$ -10.00 -0.0 %
No change
$ 8,830.00 19.3 %
AXP
10 JAN 09 55.00 AXP CALL (VAXAK) LO $ 6,860.00 9/4/2007 $ 6,700.00   107
$ -160.00 -2.3 %
10 JAN 08 55.00 AXP CALL (AXPAK) SO $ 1,050.00 12/14/2007 $ 1,990.00   6
$ 940.00 47.2 %
No change but may need to roll down if they near $50
$ 780.00 9.9 %
BA
40 JAN 09 90.00 BA CALL (VBOAR) LO $ 35,610.00 9/4/2007 $ 37,600.00   107
$ 1,990.00 5.6 %
Will either buy more here at $9 or roll down to $80s for $4 if possible
$ 1,990.00 5.6 %
BIDU
5 MAR 08 370.00 BIDU PUT (BPJON) LO $ 4,460.00 9/18/2007 $ 22,300.00   93
$ 17,840.00 400.0 %
5 DEC 07 380.00 BIDU PUT (BPJXP) SO $ 4,600.00 12/13/2007 $ 7,490.00   7
$ 2,890.00 38.6 %
Rolling caller to Jan $370 caller, now $22.25 
$ 20,730.00 228.8 %
BMY
15 JAN 10 30.00 BMY CALL (WBMAF) LO $ 2,485.00 8/21/2007 $ 3,735.00   121
$ 1,250.00 50.3 %
15 JAN 08 27.50 BMY CALL (BMYAY) SO $ 1,515.00 12/19/2007 $ 1,415.00   1
$ -100.00 -7.1 %
I made too much money but I’d like to get more of these!
$ 1,150.00 28.8 %
BSX
50 JAN 09 15.00 BSX CALL (VSBAC) LO $ 6,260.00 8/27/2007 $ 5,250.00   115
$ -1,010.00 -16.1 %
50 DEC 07 12.50 BSX CALL (BSXLV) SO $ 250.00 12/14/2007 $ 2,240.00   6
$ 1,990.00 88.8 %
Bring out your dead!
$ 980.00 15.1 %
BWLD
10 MAR 08 30.00 BWLD CALL (BQUCF) LO $ 2,510.00 10/31/2007 $ 1,800.00   50
$ -710.00 -28.3 %
Hoping for a playoffs/Superbowl bounce
$ -710.00 -28.3 %
C
40 JAN 10 30.00 C CALL (WRVAF) LO $ 25,930.00 11/7/2007 $ 27,400.00   43
$ 1,470.00 5.7 %
40 DEC 07 30.00 C CALL (CLF) SO $ 2,440.00 12/19/2007 $ 4,390.00   1
$ 1,950.00 44.4 %
Going to go naked after caller expires.
$ 3,420.00 12.1 %
CAT
20 JAN 09 70.00 CAT CALL (VKTAN) LO $ 24,110.00 7/13/2007 $ 19,300.00   160
$ -4,810.00 -20.0 %
20 DEC 07 70.00 CAT CALL (CATLN) SO $ 2,400.00 12/18/2007 $ 3,470.00   2
$ 1,070.00 30.8 %
Going to risk this naked for a bit, the drop seems forced but watching the broad markets closely
$ -3,740.00 -14.1 %
CC
80 DEC 07 7.50 CC CALL (CCLU) SO $ 1,600.00 12/11/2007 $ 6,390.00   9
$ 4,790.00 75.0 %
These are covered with April $5s – I don’t know why they didn’t come out.  Going naked and hoping.
$ 4,790.00 299.4 %
CELG
40 JAN 08 50.00 CELG CALL (LQHAJ) LO $ 10,810.00 10/25/2007 $ 6,600.00   56
$ -4,210.00 -38.9 %
40 DEC 07 50.00 CELG CALL (LQHLJ) SO $ 800.00 12/18/2007 $ 3,590.00   2
$ 2,790.00 77.7 %
Why is this trade in the LTP?
$ -1,420.00 -12.2 %
COH
20 JAN 09 30.00 COH CALL (VZFAF) LO $ 13,990.00 8/29/2007 $ 12,600.00   113
$ -1,390.00 -9.9 %
Too low to sell against here will stop out if they go below $30
$ -1,390.00 -9.9 %
CY
40 MAR 08 35.00 CY CALL (CYCG) LO $ 5,410.00 10/16/2007 $ 18,400.00   65
$ 12,990.00 240.1 %
This is my upside solar play.    Will sell Jan $35s, now $2.80 at no less than $2.50 if we head down. 
$ 12,990.00 240.1 %
DELL
10 JAN 10 25.00 DELL CALL (WDQAE) LO $ 5,710.00 12/19/2007 $ 5,400.00   1
$ -310.00 -5.4 %
I just got these, will accumulate for a while.
$ -310.00 -5.4 %
GS
20 JAN 09 200.00 GS CALL (VSDAT) LO $ 15,010.00 11/8/2007 $ 76,000.00   42
$ 60,990.00 406.3 %
Jan $210s are $7.40, if I can get that for the $220s I’ll be happy.
$ 60,990.00 406.3 %
HD
10 JAN 09 30.00 HD CALL (VHDAF) LO $ 3,910.00 11/30/2007 $ 2,450.00   20
$ -1,460.00 -37.3 %
Good Northeast winter already, I’ll buy some more down here.
$ -1,460.00 -37.3 %
HOV
60 JAN 10 10.00 HOV CALL (YZXAB) LO $ 17,410.00 11/15/2007 $ 18,000.00   35
$ 590.00 3.4 %
20 JAN 09 5.00 HOV CALL (OZWAA) LO $ 7,810.00 12/11/2007 $ 7,400.00   9
$ -410.00 -5.2 %
I think they are pinned so I’ll risk it.
$ 180.00 0.7 %
HPQ
20 MAY 08 47.50 HPQ CALL (HPQEW) LO $ 8,010.00 9/21/2007 $ 13,000.00   90
$ 4,990.00 62.3 %
I’ll take $2 for the $52.50s or $2 for the $50s, whichever gets there first.
$ 4,990.00 62.3 %
ISRG
20 JAN 09 300.00 ISRG CALL (SJCAT) LO $ 101,010.00 11/8/2007 $ 170,000.00   42
$ 68,990.00 68.3 %
I LOVE this stock.  I should have bought more at $300.  I want $20 for the $320s 
$ 68,990.00 68.3 %
MCD
60 JAN 09 55.00 MCD PUT (VMDMK) LO $ 22,750.00 11/9/2007 $ 25,200.00   41
$ 2,450.00 10.8 %
Will sell Jan $57.50 puts for $1 (I am actually bullish on MCD and taking advantage of putters). 
$ 2,450.00 10.8 %
MCO
10 JAN 09 40.00 MCO CALL (OWCAH) LO $ 6,610.00 8/24/2007 $ 6,300.00   118
$ -310.00 -4.7 %
10 DEC 07 40.00 MCO CALL (MCOLH) SO $ 100.00 11/19/2007 $ 1,540.00   31
$ 1,440.00 93.5 %
I may buy more if they test $36 again so naked for a bit.
$ 1,130.00 16.8 %
MDT
20 JAN 09 50.00 MDT CALL (VKDAJ) LO $ 8,610.00 9/6/2007 $ 11,200.00   105
$ 2,590.00 30.1 %
20 JAN 08 50.00 MDT CALL (MDTAJ) SO $ 2,600.00 12/13/2007 $ 2,390.00   7
$ -210.00 -8.8 %
Looks pinned to me, I’ll go naked on this.
$ 2,380.00 21.2 %
MRVL
30 JAN 25.00 MRVL CALL (OZLAE) LO $ 1,060.00 7/27/2007 $ 1,200.00   146
$ 140.00 13.2 %
This better be a bottom!  I just use these to sell calls against when they rally (not lately!).
$ 140.00 13.2 %
SBUX
30 JAN 09 22.50 SBUX CALL (VPRAX) LO $ 9,520.00 8/1/2007 $ 6,450.00   141
$ -3,070.00 -32.2 %
I feel like Don Quixote with this one.  I just can’t bring myself to sell calls down here. 
$ -3,070.00 -32.2 %
SHFL
40 JAN 09 15.00 SHFL CALL (ZTHAC) LO $ 5,610.00 9/12/2007 $ 8,000.00   99
$ 2,390.00 42.6 %
40 DEC 07 12.50 SHFL CALL (SFQLV) SO $ 1,400.00 12/10/2007 $ 2,590.00   10
$ 1,190.00 45.9 %
I’ll wait these out a bit
$ 3,580.00 51.1 %
SNDK
20 APR 08 40.00 SNDK CALL (SWQDH) LO $ 2,110.00 6/3/2007 $ 4,200.00   200
$ 2,090.00 99.1 %
20 DEC 07 35.00 SNDK CALL (SWQLG) SO $ 1,400.00 12/19/2007 $ 1,890.00   1
$ 490.00 25.9 %
Jan $35s at $1.90
$ 2,580.00 73.5 %
STX
40 JAN 09 25.00 STX CALL (VTTAE) LO $ 20,810.00 10/18/2007 $ 20,000.00   63
$ -810.00 -3.9 %
40 DEC 07 27.50 STX CALL (STXLY) SO $ 400.00 12/14/2007 $ 2,390.00   6
$ 1,990.00 83.3 %
If they don’t bounce the Nas is dead so I’ll wait and see.
$ 1,180.00 5.6 %
TXN
20 JAN 09 30.00 TXN CALL (VXTAF) LO $ 11,010.00 10/24/2007 $ 12,400.00   57
$ 1,390.00 12.6 %
20 DEC 07 32.50 TXN CALL (TXNLZ) SO $ 1,200.00 12/11/2007 $ 2,990.00   9
$ 1,790.00 59.9 %
20 JAN 08 32.50 TXN CALL (TXNAZ) SO $ 2,560.00 12/14/2007 $ 3,590.00   6
$ 1,030.00 28.7 %
They just gave a good outlook, we’ll have to play this by ear.
$ 4,210.00 28.5 %
UNH
15 JAN 09 50.00 UNH CALL (VUHAJ) LO $ 12,310.00 11/9/2007 $ 17,700.00   41
$ 5,390.00 43.8 %
15 DEC 07 55.00 UNH CALL (UHBLK) SO $ 3,600.00 11/20/2007 $ 1,490.00   30
$ -2,110.00 -141.6 %
I’m no longer happy with the premiums offered and will be killing this position.
$ 3,280.00 20.6 %
UTX
15 JAN 09 75.00 UTX CALL (VXUAO) LO $ 4,510.00 7/13/2007 $ 14,250.00   160
$ 9,740.00 216.0 %
15 DEC 07 75.00 UTX CALL (UTXLO) SO $ 1,875.00 11/20/2007 $ 2,840.00   30
$ 965.00 34.0 %
Jan $75s at $2.65
$ 10,705.00 167.7 %
WFR
20 JAN 70.00 WFR CALL (ZYGAN) LO $ 2,610.00 4/20/2007 $ 73,000.00   244
$ 70,390.00 2,696.9 %
20 DEC 07 90.00 WFR CALL (WFRLR) SO $ 1,800.00 12/19/2007 $ 1,990.00   1
$ 190.00 9.5 %
May need to stop out the $90s on TXN news but then wil sell Jan $90s, now $4.75
$ 70,580.00 1,600.5 %
WMT
20 JAN 09 50.00 WMT CALL (VWTAJ) LO $ 3,310.00 8/28/2007 $ 9,600.00   114
$ 6,290.00 190.0 %
20 DEC 07 47.50 WMT CALL (WMTLW) SO $ 1,500.00 11/20/2007 $ 1,490.00   30
$ -10.00 -0.7 %
People have to be buying something right?  I’ll wait for the sales numbers, way ahead anyway.
$ 6,280.00 130.6 %
Total Gain/Loss
$ 422,205.00 75.6 %

Gee I’m a lot more bullish than I thought – funny how I don’t realize it until I have to decide whether I want to cover all my favorite stocks or not!

Still, not covering here means I WILL be covering with index puts as I would never leave them totally naked, they are there to make money selling calls, in the brief periods I leave them open, I certainly don’t want them to fall our of position if I make a mistake.

 

 

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Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.

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