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Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Microsoft’s “Cash Back”

Comment on Msft’s "cash back" problem program

Microsoft’s "Cash Back" Google Search Killer: Great Idea, Won’t Work

Excerpt:      "Microsoft (MSFT) will announce its Hail Mary attempt to stave off a Google (GOOG) search monopoly this morning, TechCrunch reports. This is the "disruptive" development Microsoft’s Kevin Johnson alluded to last week. It is also a plan Microsoft briefly discussed a couple of years ago (to applause, at least from this analyst).

First, we think this is a smart idea. It’s a natural market response to a sector in which one player has suddenly absconded with absolutely fantastic profits (and profit margins), leaving all other competitors flopping in the dust. We think Kevin Johnson was right to describe it as "disruptive," and we’re sorry we needled him for that. (Of course, we would have inserted the word "potentially"–see below.)

Second, Microsoft appears to have executed the plan intelligently: 18 high-profit verticals in which searchers get cash back if they buy something from participating merchants.

This announcement will likely create uncertainty in the industry, and we expect Google investors will worry about it for a while (needlessly, in our opinion). At first blush, the plan also sounds as though it will turn the industry on its head, forcing Google to implement a similar plan or go bust. So why won’t it?

Three reasons:…."

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