Graham Summers makes a compelling argument for the market to be very weak, subject to a large drop, over the next half a year. 
– Ilene
Preparing for the Fall
Excerpts: "Prepare yourself now."
"The market is widely referred to as a discounting mechanism. However, its ability to discount anything extends only as far as the collective knowledge of its participants. And to be blunt, the vast majority of today’s investors— professional or otherwise— know little if anything about making money in the market…
The issue of ignorance extends beyond individual investors to professional traders. As Bill King put it in an earlier essay, “There is a whole generation of traders whose knowledge of investing and financial history dates back to 1990 at most. Put another way, there are thousands and thousands of guys in their 40s who trade for a living and have never seen a real bear market or recession.”
As much as the financial media likes to refer to the Bear Stearns bailout and the Federal Reserve’s other recent actions as unprecedented, the reality is that similar events have occurred in the past. And history offers some striking advice as to what to expect for the remainder of 2008.
There have been three March financial crisis and subsequent interventions in the 20th century alone—1907, 1929, and 1980. And while the ones intervening changed— JP Morgan in 1907, Herbert Hoover in 1929, and Jimmy Carter in 1980— the effects of the interventions were always the same: The intervention marked a temporary bottom followed by a brief two to three month rally, then a very ugly fall (literally and seasonally).
Thus, I believe the market is ripe for a major (20% or more) downturn in the coming months. Novice investors would do well to shift a sizable portion of their portfolios to cash."
