Here’s a note by Todd Sullivan arguing that the durable goods orders increased last month, better than Wall Street’s and economists’ expectations, and indicating that the economy is in good shape in spite of all the media/economists’ dire predictions. Courtesy of Todd Sullivan’s Valueplays. 
Durable Goods, Or The Reason to Ignore Most Economists
Orders in June were revised higher, also rising 1.3%; previously, June durables were seen rising 0.8%.
The report was much better than Wall Street expected; economists had forecast a decline of 0.4% for July. It should be noted that the June revisions mean econoists were far off the mark then also.
A gauge of business equipment spending — orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — increased in July by 2.6%, after going up 1.3% in June. Year-over-year it has increased 4.2%, indicating capital spending hasn’t collapsed despite despite dire predictions it would.
The "long story short" translation here is that other than housing, the economy is still in good shape. We have yet to have a negative quarter of GDP growth, the unemployment rate, despite rising is still low by any historical measure.
Economists, far from being scientists are letting their outlook shade the reality of what is happening out there and their "predictions". My home has dropped in value like the rest of the US’s over the last two years. But, I am not selling so, who cares? It does not have any effect on my life at all and its drop is meaningless to my financial plans in the next decade or my lifestyle. Now, it does on others, and that is why we will not grow GDP at 3% to 4%. It is the reason it will grow 0% to 2%. That is still growth.
Do home value drops matter to Caterpiller (CAT) or John Deere (DE) or other US exporters selling equipment to China, India or Brazil? It does in that their profits may drop slightly but not enough to offset a global world. Again, not great growth but growth none the less.
Housing is also the reason people think the world is coming to and end, clouding their perception of what is really happening. People losing their homes make real nice news headlines and stories, especially in an election year. Watch what happens after the election. This issue will take on considerably less importance. For now, it will be a day after day drumming of it as both parties and the media try to assess blame on everyone but the real responsible parties, lenders and borrowers.
Do not base your outlook or investments on what the economists say. Remember, they predicted a recession as early as last fall, and have still been wrong to date on that one.
