MARKET COMMENT
September 17, 2008. Courtesy of Dave Fry, ETF Digest.
Big Wednesday Surrender, Sandy Beach Oahu
Yeah, I’m thinkin’ Big Wednesday once again and thanking family friend Chris Spezzano for the image. When I was young I used to…nevermind.
Blogging this market everyday shortly after the close seems useless since the news cycle is moving faster than prices. I’m just gonna say this is as volatile a week as we and most others predicted, and it’s not over.
Imagine: the government is now a constituent member of the DJIA thru its ownership of AIG. What financial company is left as a substitution? Should it be another financial company? Or, will the powers that be do something sexier and more contemporary like Google?
The government is more active directly or indirectly in markets as many Plunge Protection Team conspirators believed there can be no doubt.
ETN [Exchange Traded Notes] sponsors are starting to feel the heat as investors doubt the quality of guarantees. CNY [Van Eck Renminbi ETN] is a case in point where yesterday, without much movement in the currency, the issue was down 6%. Today it was as low as $29.37 or another 22% before recouping on heavy volume to over $39 very heavy volume for it.
We, Greg Newton and I, were in communication yesterday and today with both Van Eck and Morgan Stanley with the latter having the guarantee. With pressure mounting on MS it seems holders of CNY are questioning this guarantee.
Speaking of the renminbi and China there’s this little article from the People’s Daily suggesting a new world currency arrangement. It’s pretty pathetic to have them lecture us about regulation and corporate governance issues since things have yet to be tested there. I remember visiting the Chairman of the Shanghai Exchange in 1993 and his knowledge of these issues was poor. But they’ve learned much since then. In fact, global conditions probably require some realignment which isn’t necessarily a bad thing since we asked for it with our stupid policies.
Volume remains heavy and breadth probably posting another negative 90/10 day.
Like I said, by the time I got to the end of this post there’s already more breaking news. This time it’s a story/rumor MS and WB are having merger talks and that WM has put itself up for sale. When we wake-up Monday we may have a completely different financial landscape. Lots of good people will lose their jobs in consolidations and perhaps more bankruptcies. But financial firms are in full panic mode.
This week isn’t even over yet and there are more thrills and spills yet to come.
One thing I’m not seeing yet is complete capitulation. That may still happen. We’re getting close and are deeply oversold.
There’s nothing wrong with carrying large cash positions. We’re nearly 80% in cash with the balance in short positions. Some days you wish you had more of the latter and others not. You either trade this market in very short time periods or with conviction and lots of courage.
Just remember, the biggest mouth on Wall Street and on TV is not permitted by his contract to short. He and his sponsors want you to “buy, buy, buy!”
Let’s see what happens next.
Have a pleasant evening.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: SDS, QID, SMN, SIJ SDP, IEF, TLT, EEM, EEV, EFA, EFU and FXI.
