MARKET COMMENT
October 21, 2008, courtesy of Dave Fry, ETF Digest
I suppose that’s the message he’s sending. But, he knows better given his past experiences and responsibilities. After all, if a bank’s trading desk can day-trade free money profitably they would. He ought to know.
There wasn’t any follow-thru to the upside today, just a lot of two-way action that by the close saw stocks hit by sell programs giving back at least half of yesterday’s gains. If you walk away during the last two hours of trading you’ll miss some great “what the hell was that” action, and that’s been the trend. The last two days reminds me of the old maxim: “One day you eat the bear, and the next day it eats you.”
Today was about earnings [crummy], more government intervention including bailouts; backstops; schemes and dreams, and ubiquitous program trading.
Volume continues to be relatively light while breadth was as negative as expected.
There’s no question authorities have not ruled any action to help markets. Bernanke is putting all his academic research into real time action. That’s the deal with research, it’s only that. Paulson on the other hand is an experienced market veteran, but there has never been someone in such a position so conflicted.
Earnings are coming fast and furious. Most have been disappointing. AAPL, the only products American consumers seem interested in reported and beat much lower forecasts. It, and most other stocks, are trading much higher in After Hours trading. Just remember, most companies and analysts have been sharply reducing estimates and then beating. That’s the dirty little game they play.
We’re still awaiting word on LEH swap settlements that should have taken place today. The first news bulletin reported no assigned losses while a second suggested the process wasn’t settled yet.
I’ve been hoping that we would get some extended sideways action to relieve oversold conditions. The violence in the markets makes current conditions nearly uninvestable on a day-to-day basis. There will be opportunities in the future to put either reshort or enter long positions. But for now we’re just laying in the weeds watching and waiting for our opportunities. Until then we remain primarily in cash.
Have a pleasant evening.
Disclaimer: The ETF Digest is long FXY.