MARKET COMMENT
November 19, 2008, courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest.
Another Big Wednesday? Oh yeah! Of course what Laird Hamilton is doing in this video is an awesome ride of guts but ultimately beautiful at the same time. We can’t say the same thing about the stock market now can we?
On SPY yesterday we rallied 4.25% in the last hour of trading and today we fell 3% in the last hour. This type of violence, with today alone being down over 6.33%, is what makes holding positions too difficult for the average investor.
Volume was as heavy as yesterday with most of it coming toward the close like yesterday. But unlike yesterday the performance reversed. Breadth probably put in another negative 90/10 day.
I won’t miss a chance to post a cool Big Wednesday pic or video whether markets are up or down big.
Over the weekend I posted some monthly charts of the DJIA going back to 1897. What was I searching for? I was trying to find monthly RSI readings as low as we commonly see today. There was only the aftermath of 1929 and the lows made in 1974 with these low levels. That’s pretty impressive.
While trading the 5 minute bars today I noted the heavy volume just before the close and thought that might indicate some capitulation. We’ll have to wait and see.
You should be very wary of options expirations beginning tomorrow afternoon and ending Friday. The options specialists and floor traders will be on seek and destroy missions trying to exercise expiring strike prices. This can create some weird action.
Sometimes cash is a good place since most investors I know aren’t under the same pressure as a mutual fund manager who always needs to be invested. Just remember the famous line from the movie Cool Hand Luke:
“Yeah, well sometimes nothing is a real cool hand.”
Have a pleasant evening.
Disclaimer: The ETF Digest has no positions.
