MARKET COMMENT
January 7, 2009, Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest
The McClellan Oscillator was sending a warning to investors this past week as it hit a contemporary high record. This is why we had such timid positions. So we lost substantial amounts in some individual positions but overall gave back only about 1%.
As much as you want to jump in with both feet you have to pay attention to these kinds of warnings and keep most of your powder dry. Hence, we still had over 80-90% in cash.
Volume is roughly the same as yesterday while breadth of course reversed course.
Then the WSJ reports volume and breadth here.
And, on cue, our man David Hurwitz chimes in with his data from the ski slopes of Geneva.
I think our trusty McClellan Oscillator kept us out of serious trouble so far. It’s still in overbought territory and where we go from here is anyone’s guess. We don’t like losing money even on small positions so I regret, so far anyway, putting anything on.
I did write a commentary last night but screwed the uploading par sufficiently so that it was lost. Rather than writing it all over again or throwing the PC out the window, I had a drink instead. It’s the only sensible thing to do in such a circumstance. And, no, there’s no Sacred Cow for that but I may conjure up one.
Tomorrow there will be no post as it’s a travel day. The layover gets me in too late to write and then it’s Miami on Friday. If you’re going to the Inside ETF conference in Boca Raton please say hello. On Monday I’m the moderator of a panel entitled (Guess what?) Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund. What a novel idea! But, being that the panel doesn’t start until 5 PM or so I won’t be posting a commentary Monday either.
Have a great weekend and remember, the week’s not over!
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD, XLE, DBA, EWY, EWJ and FXI.
